Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors Institute for National Security Studies The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), incorporating the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, was founded in 2006. The purpose of the Institute for National Security Studies is, first, to conduct basic research that meets the highest academic standards on matters related to Israel’s national security as well as Middle East regional and international security affairs. Second, the Institute aims to contribute to the public debate and governmental deliberation of issues that are – or should be – at the top of Israel’s national security agenda. INSS seeks to address Israeli decision makers and policymakers, the defense establishment, public opinion makers, the academic community in Israel and abroad, and the general public. INSS publishes research that it deems worthy of public attention, while it maintains a strict policy of non-partisanship. The opinions expressed in this publication are the authors’ alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute, its trustees, boards, research staff, or the organizations and individuals that support its research. Strategic Survey for Israel 2013-2014 Shlomo Brom and Anat Kurz, Editors המכון למחקרי ביטחון לאומי THE INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITYc STUDIES INCORPORATING THE JAFFEE bd CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Graphic design: Michal Semo-Kovetz and Yael Bieber Cover design: Michal Semo-Kovetz Printing: Elinir Cover Photo: Representatives of the P5+1 and Iran in Geneva, November 24, 2013 Courtesy: AFP/Getty Images Institute for National Security Studies (a public benefit company) 40 Haim Levanon Street POB 39950 Ramat Aviv Tel Aviv 6997556 Israel Tel. +972-3-640-0400 Fax. +972-3-744-7590 E-mail: [email protected] http:// www.inss.org.il © 2014 All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-965-7425-57-2 Contents Preface 7 Part I: Developments in the Middle East Iran and the International Community, 2013: Is it Decision Time? 19 Emily B. Landau and Shimon Stein Syria: The Civil War with No Winner 35 Shlomo Brom, Benedetta Berti, and Mark A. Heller The Upheaval in Egypt 57 Ephraim Kam Jordan: Relative Stability in the Eye of the Storm 75 Oded Eran Turkey: Looking Beyond the Current Challenges 83 Gallia Lindenstrauss Russia in the Middle East: The Drive to Enhance Influence 101 Zvi Magen United States Involvement in the Middle East: Image vs. Reality 111 Oded Eran Part II: Israel and the Middle East Israel’s Current Strategic Security Challenges 123 Udi Dekel, Shlomo Brom, and Yoram Schweitzer The Political Process: Plan A, Plan B, and What Lies Between Them 139 Udi Dekel, Anat Kurz, and Gilead Sher Israeli Public Opinion and Separation from the Palestinians 159 Yehuda Ben Meir and Gilead Sher The Civilian Front in Israel: A Framework for Future Preparedness 175 Meir Elran and Alex Altshuler The Natural Gas Revolution in Israel 189 Shmuel Even and Oded Eran Conclusion A Time for Decisions: Toward Agreements and Alternative Plans 205 Amos Yadlin Contributors 227 Preface Preface The period reviewed in this book, the latest volume in the Strategic Survey for Israel series published annually by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), was dominated by the ongoing effects of the so-called “Arab Spring” and the various shockwaves felt in the Middle East over the past three years. Prevailing trends in the Middle East in 2013, which will define much of Israel’s strategic environment for the coming year, reflected the social and political vicissitudes in the internal affairs of the regional states, the response by the neighboring states to these changes, and the shifts in relations and the balance of power between them. Regional developments alternately prompted and reflected the response of international actors to events in the Middle East, as well as the drive by the leading powers to reduce the negative effects on their interests in the region. When taken as a whole, the thirteen chapters compiled here present a dynamic regional picture that confronts Israel with difficult dilemmas that at the same time contain potential opportunities within them. A key conclusion arising from the various analyses is that Israel would do well to engage proactively with its surroundings and attempt to carve out various means to promote its strategic interests. Conversely, avoiding a decision about the best policy for dealing with these dilemmas will intensify the security and political challenges. Part I of the volume, “Developments in the Middle East,” assesses the dominant trends evident in the leading Middle East states. The focus here is on individual states, with particular attention to regional and international ramifications for Israel’s security. The first article, by Emily Landau and Shimon Stein, examines the international community’s engagement with the Iranian nuclear issue. The economic hardship in Iran created by the intensified international sanctions, and the growing recognition among the Iranian population 7 Preface of the connection between Iran’s economic difficulty and international standing on the one hand and the progress toward completion of its nuclear program on the other, paved Hassan Rouhani’s way to the presidency. This development sparked hope in Iran as well as among the world powers that the crisis surrounding the nuclear program could be solved diplomatically. An interim agreement was reached in late 2013, stipulating that the program would be suspended while negotiations for a comprehensive agreement were underway. The possibility that these talks, especially the dialogue between Iran and the US, would bolster Iran’s influence in the Persian Gulf while leaving it the means to continue its progress toward military nuclear capability aroused severe concern in Israel and in the Persian Gulf states. Therefore, the authors contend, removal of both the sanctions and the military option before an agreement is reached guaranteeing a significant delay in the Iranian nuclear program will impact negatively on the prospects for significantly attenuating the threat posed by the program. The following chapter, by Shlomo Brom, Benedetta Berti, and Mark Heller, discusses the civil war in Syria, dwelling on the deadlock between the supporters of the Bashar al-Assad regime and the rebel forces. To the authors it appears that the fighting will continue indefinitely, incurring greater regional and international consequences but with no absolute victor. Syria’s decline into civil war has undermined its ability to conduct a conventional military struggle against Israel, but the weakening of the central government has enabled armed sub-state organizations to seize control of certain areas. This development bodes ill for Israel, because some of these factions are Salafi-jihadi organizations. The millions of Syrian refugees who have crossed the border into Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon have created severe socioeconomic problems in those countries with the potential for causing political upheaval. The regime and the various rebel forces are supported by their traditional allies, but with the exception of Hizbollah – backed by overt support from Iran – these allies have thus far refrained from direct intervention in the fighting. Fighting by Hizbollah operatives at the side of the regime’s army has also aggravated the inter-sectarian tension in Lebanon. Despite Syria’s breach of a US red line on the use of chemical weapons by the regime, aversion to military entanglement in Syria led to an international agreement, spearheaded by 8 Preface Russia and welcomed by the US administration, to dismantle the regime’s chemical arsenal. This development highlighted the Syrian context in the struggle between the leading major powers and the assessment that coordination between them will be a necessary condition for talks between the adversarial parties, and even more so for an agreement between them to halt the fighting. The upheaval in Egypt is the subject of Ephraim Kam’s article. His analysis focuses on the dynamic that led to the military coup in the summer of 2013, which put an end to the Muslim Brotherhood regime after a year of its controlling the parliament, the government, and the presidency. Opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood regime stemmed from its failure to form a coalition with other forces among the Egyptian public, President Morsi’s attempt to command far reaching power, and the overall failures in government and economic management. It is too early to tell whether the military will retain the political leadership or choose to hold elections, but certainly the Muslim Brotherhood’s decision whether to embark on a direct struggle against the army or whether to engage in dialogue with it will determine the stability of the political system in Egypt in the coming years. For its part, Israel benefited from the return of the Egyptian army to center stage. Security coordination with Egypt, in particular the effort to restrain jihadi activity in Sinai, continued even during the Muslim Brotherhood rule. In contrast to the Brotherhood, however, the Egyptian army is not motivated by ideological hostility to Israel. Israel therefore took action to soften the opposition of the US to the army’s return to power in Egypt through patently undemocratic means. Oded Eran’s article focuses on the stability of Jordan, a state challenged by socioeconomic hardships and processes that preceded the “Arab Spring” but were exacerbated by the regional developments. They include a demographic challenge, intensified by the wave of Syrian refugees that reached Jordan; the internal political challenge, inspired by the social protest and the call for democracy in the Middle East; and the economic challenge, which has long been linked to the need for the rehabilitation of infrastructure and reduction of unemployment, along with the additional burden created by the flood of refugees from Syria and the halt in the supply of natural gas from Egypt.