2182 Science in China Ser. D Earth Sciences 2005 Vol.48 No.12 2182—2193 Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River ZHENG Jingyun, HAO Zhixin & GE Quansheng Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China Correspondence should be addressed to Zheng Jingyun (email: [email protected]) Received September 8, 2003; revised May 9, 2004 Abstract The precipitation at 17 stations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River is reconstructed during the period of 1736―1910, using the snow and rainfall records in the Qing Dynasty, together with the instrumental observation data of precipitation and farmland soil moisture content. The soil physics model related to rainfall infiltration and the surface water bal- ance equation are taken as main reconstruction methodology. The field infiltration experiment by artificial rainfall is conducted to check the reliability. And the precipitation series over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and its 4 sub-regions are established, going back to 1736. Analysis of the time series indicates that the abrupt change of precipitation from high to low oc- curs around 1915 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. During the three peri- ods of 1791―1805, 1816―1830 and 1886―1895, the precipitation is markedly higher than the mean of the series. While both the periods of 1916―1945 and 1981―2000 are characterized by less precipitation. Three periodicities of 22―25a, 3.9a and 2.7a are shown in the precipitation fluctuation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Moreover, the periodical signal of 22―25a becomes weaker and weaker since the abrupt change of 1915 and disappears in the late 1940s, and then the periodical signal of 35―40a appears instead. Keywords: variation, precipitation, last 300 years, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, snow and rain- fall archive in the Qing Dynasty. DOI: 10.1360/03yd0392 Reconstruction of high-resolution historical climatic to provide long-term high-resolution climatic data[3,4]. series is the key issue for Past Global Changes Since the 1970s, many historical climatic series with (PAGES) and Climate Variability and Predictability index or grade have been established by using Chinese (CLIVAR), the two core projects of the international historical documents, for example, the grade of dry- [5] research programme on global changes. High-resolu- ness/wetness for 120 stations over the last 500 years , [6] tion historical climatic data are vital for our under- and for 45 stations during the past 2000 years . standing the mechanisms of climatic variability, im- However, only a few studies focus on high-resolution [7,8] proving climate model, and distinguishing anthropo- historical precipitation reconstruction . genic effects from the natural forcing on climate Among the Chinese historical documents, the snow change[1,2]. China, with continuous and abundant his- and rainfall archive in the Qing Dynasty is one of the torical documents, is one of the most potential regions most reliable data[9]. This archive covers 268 Fu (Fu is Copyright by Science in China Press 2005 Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River 2183 an administration district between province and the snow depth of each snowfall and the infiltration county) of 18 provinces in the Qing Dynasty from the depth of each rainfall in unit of Fen (1 Fen = 0.32 cm) 32nd year of Kangxi Reign (AD 1693) to the 3rd year or Cun (1 Cun = 3.2 cm), so called “Yu (rainfall) Xue of Xuantong Reign (AD 1911). In which, the records (snowfall) Fen Cun” in Chinese. The latter is syn- since the first year of Qianlong Reign (AD 1736) are thetically assessments of climate for a period, such as continuous and detailed. These records are described the total precipitation for several days, one month, one in two kinds of formats[8]: quantitative data and quali- season or one year (Fig. 1). Compared with other Chi- tative descriptions. The former is the measurement of nese historical documents (e.g. local gazettes), the Fig. 1. Example for the snow and rainfall records in the Qing Dynasty. (a) Quantitative records about the snow depth; (b) quantitative records about the infiltration depth of each rainfall; (c) qualitative descriptions about synthetically assessments of precipitation for a pe- riod. Only part of the contents is shown in the record. The punctuation is marked by author. The date in bracket is Gregorian calendar. 2184 Science in China Ser. D Earth Sciences snow and rainfall records are usually recorded in high- to understand the characteristics and trends of precipi- resolution and quantitativeness. In the previous works, tation variation in a long-term perspective for effective some case studies have successfully reconstructed utilization of water resource and social-economical precipitation based on this archive[9―12]. In this paper, development in future. the reconstruction and variation of precipitation for the Four sets of data are used in this study. The first is last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the snow and rainfall records at 17 stations over the the Yellow River will be discussed. middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River from 1 The study region and data source 1736 to 1911. The second is the instrumental observa- The study region is the middle and lower reaches of tion precipitation data of 17 reconstructed stations and the Yellow River, which belongs to the warm temper- other 5 meteorological stations. The third is the ob- ate and sub-humid climate zone. In this area, precipi- servation data of soil moisture content from 17 agro- tation variation has great impact on agriculture pro- meteorological experimental stations. And the last set duction and social development with obvious seasonal of data is our own investigation data from the field change, great variability, and frequent drought and infiltration experiment at Luancheng (a town near to flood disasters. Recently, the water resource is be- Shijiazhuang) Agricultural Ecosystem Experimental coming shorter and shorter under the condition of so- Station from May 30 to June 16, 2002. The name of 17 cial-economical rapid development. There are many stations for precipitation reconstruction, the location of studies focused on historical climate changes in this every agro-meteorological experimental station, and [13,14] area . However, it is very important to reconstruct the period for the observation data used in this study the high-resolution historical precipitation series and are listed in Table 1. Since the instrumental observa- Table 1 The station name, the location of agro-meteorological experimental station and the period for the observation data used a) Location of agro-meteorological experimental Period for the instrumental observation Station name station and period for data used precipitation data used Shijiazhuang (Zhengding Fu) Luancheng 1996―2002 1951―2000 Hejian b) (Hejian Fu) Baxian 1990―2000 1930―1937, 1954―2000 1916―2000 (data in 1929, 1938, 1944―1946 Taiyuan (Taiyuan Fu) Jiexiu 1990―2000 and 1948―1949 unavailable) Jinan (Jinan Fu) Ji’nan 1990―2000 1916―2000 Yan’an (Yan’an Fu) Yan’an 1990―2000 1951―2000 Xi’an (Xi’an Fu) Xianyang 1990―2000 1923―1926, 1931―2000 Yuncheng (Puzhou Fu and Xie Zhou) Yuncheng 1990―2000 1956―2000 Luoyang (He’nan Fu) Lushi 1990―2000 1931―1937, 1951―1996 Zhengzhou (Kaifeng Fu) Zhengzhou 1981―2000 1930―1938, 1950―2000 Linfen (Pingyang Fu) Linfen 1990―2000 1951―2000 Changzhi (Lu’an Fu) Changzhi 1990―2000 1951―2000 Anyang (Zhangde Fu) Puyang 1990―2000 1919―1926, 1931―1937, 1951―2000 Shangqiu (Guide Fu) Shangqiu 1990―2000 1954―1999 Heze (Caozhou Fu) Heze 1994―2000 1951―2000 Linyi (Yizhou Fu) Linyi 1994―2000 1951―2000 Taian (Tai’an Fu) Taian 1987―2000 1951―2000 Weifang (Qingzhou Fu and Laizhou Fu) Weifang 1994―2000 1951―2000 a) Fu or Zhou bracketed is the place recording the snow and rainfall in the Qing Dynasty corresponding to the station. Fu or Zhou is the administration dis- trict between province and county in the Qing Dynasty. b) The instrumental observation precipitation data of Hejian come from Cangzhou. Variation of precipitation for the last 300 years over the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River 2185 tion precipitation data are not available now, the data River (Weihe for short). The subregion IV includes 5 of Hejian are replaced by that of neighboring station stations of Shangqiu, Heze, Weifang, Tai’an and Linyi, Cangzhou. mainly located in Shandong Province (Shandong for short). 2 Reconstruction of the precipitation 2.1 Sub-region division 2.2 Precipitation reconstruction for individual station during 1736―1910 Difference exists in the annual and inter-annual variation and long-term change trends of precipitation The precipitation for individual station in the period ― variation among 17 stations over the middle and lower 1736 1910 is reconstructed using snow and rainfall reaches of the Yellow River. In order to analyze the records in the Qing Dynasty. The procedure for data precipitation spatial pattern, we divide all of 17 sta- extracting and processing has been detailedly dis- [10,11] tions into 4 sub-regions (Fig. 2) by using the factor cussed in previous studies . In this paper, we in- analysis method based on the precipitation data from troduce the methodology of reconstruction briefly and 1956 to 1996, as well as referring the Chinese climate list pa- rameter value. [15] regionalization . The sub-region I includes 4 stations (i) Precipitation reconstruction. The rainfall equals of Shijiazhuang, Hejian (Cangzhou), Taiyuan and Ji- to the summation of runoff and infiltration approxi- nan, located at the north of the Yellow River (Hebei mately for each rainfall, in terms of the surface water for short).