Impact of Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change on Surf Life Saving Services A Road Map for Adaptive Action Report Prepared for SLSA. May 2011 Prepared by: Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd © Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd All rights reserved. Recommended Citation: Elrick, C., Dalton, L. and Kay, R.C. 2011. Impact of Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change on Surf Life Saving Services: A Road Map for Adaptive Action, report prepared for Surf Life Saving Australia. Authors Carmen Elrick Luke Dalton Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Unit 1/237 Stirling Hwy Claremont, 6010 Western Australia Website: www.coastalmanagement.com Robert Kay Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Coastal Zone Management Contact Details Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Unit 1/237 Stirling Hwy PO Box 236 Claremont, WA, 6010 Australia Phone: +61 (0) 8 9284 6470 Fax: +61 (0) 8 9284 6490 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.coastalmanagement.com Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Climate Change Road Map for SLSA ii Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................V 1. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1. REPORT STRUCTURE.................................................................................................................. 2 2. APPROACH................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1. STEP 1: NEEDS ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................................... 4 2.2. STEP 2: DESIRED PROGRAM RESULTS ........................................................................................ 6 2.3. STEP 3: FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE CHANGE ............................................................................... 6 2.4. STEP 4: ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES .................................................................................................. 7 3. UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM............................................................................................. 8 3.1. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COASTAL ZONE.................................................................. 8 3.1.1. Summary ........................................................................................................................ 16 3.2. MANAGING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE............................................................................ 17 3.3. SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 20 4. DESIRED PROGRAM RESULTS................................................................................................ 21 5. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE CHANGE ................................................................................... 22 5.1. SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 24 6. ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES ........................................................................................................... 25 6.1. SLSA CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ROAD MAP...................................................................... 33 7. NEXT STEPS - IMPLEMENTATION............................................................................................ 43 8. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................. 43 9. REFERENCES............................................................................................................................. 44 APPENDIX 1: PHYSICAL SENSITIVITY METHODS ......................................................................... 47 APPENDIX 2: OUTPUTS OF THE VISUAL ASSESSMENT OF PHYSICAL SENSITIVITY OF SLSA CLUBS................................................................................................................................................ 48 APPENDIX 3: CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS .......................................................................... 82 National Projections...................................................................................................................... 83 APPENDIX 4: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE AUSTRALIAN COASTAL ZONE ......... 88 APPENDIX 5: ASSESSMENT OF DECISION MAKING ACHITECTURE.......................................... 91 The What and Why ....................................................................................................................... 91 The How ....................................................................................................................................... 92 The When and Where................................................................................................................... 95 APPENDIX 6: CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION PROGRAMS/PROJECTS LOG........................................................................................................... 96 APPENDIX 7: EXAMPLE STUDY BRIEFS....................................................................................... 115 PROFILE 1: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................... 115 PROFILE 2: ADAPTIVE CAPACITY ASSESSMENT................................................................................... 117 Coastal Zone Management Pty Ltd Climate Change Road Map for SLSA iii List of Figures FIGURE 1: DISTRIBUTION OF SLSCS IN AUSTRALIA .................................................................... 2 FIGURE 2: APPROACH TO ROAD MAP DEVELOPMENT ................................................................. 4 FIGURE 3: THEMED APPROACHES TO VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION (LU, 2006) ..................... 4 FIGURE 4: ELEMENTS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSMENT OF ADAPTIVE CAPACITY............................... 6 FIGURE 5: ARCADIAN SLSC, TOWNSVILLE, FOLLOWING CYCLONE YASI (FEBRUARY, 2011) PHOTO CREDIT NORMAN FARMER ................................................................................................ 12 FIGURE 6: CURRUMBIN BEACH SLSC DURING STORM EVENT (DECEMBER, 2007) PHOTO CREDIT JENNIFER MAROHASY....................................................................................................... 13 FIGURE 7: THE WHAT, WHY, HOW, WHEN AND WHERE OF DECISION MAKING FOR SLSA.......... 19 FIGURE 8: PROBLEM-SOLUTION MAPPING, COMPLETED FOR SLSA ........................................... 27 FIGURE 9: DIFFERENT SCALES OF ASSESSMENT SHOWING FIRST PASS PHYSICAL SENSITIVITY ASSESSMENT (FOLLOWING DCCEE 2009) ........................................................................ 47 FIGURE 10: AVERAGE NATIONAL CHANGE IN RAINFALL IN 2070, 50TH PERCENTILE. (CSIRO, 2007) .............................................................................................................................. 85 FIGURE 11: BROAD REGIONS OF AUSTRALIAN GEOMORPHOLOGY (DCCEE, 2009)................... 88 FIGURE 12: DELIVERY WITHIN SLS FEDERATION (SOURCE: BARRINGTON CONSULTING GROUP 2009) .............................................................................................................................. 92 FIGURE 13: FINANCIAL MECHANISMS OF SLSA......................................................................... 94 List of Tables TABLE 1: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAPTED FROM ABUODHA AND WOODROFFE, 2006).... 8 TABLE 2: PERCENT OF CLUBS, PER STATE AND REGION, LOCATED IN ZONES OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ........................................................................................................................ 9 TABLE 3: SLSA ADAPTIVE ENTRY POINTS................................................................................. 23 TABLE 4: ADAPTATION ACTIONS FOR INCLUSION IN SLSA’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ROAD MAP................................................................................................................................. 28 TABLE 5: IPCC SPECIAL REPORT ON EMISSION SCENARIOS (SRES) (IPCC 2000)................... 82 TABLE 6: SELECTED GLOBAL NON-CLIMATE ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS RELEVANT TO COASTAL AREAS FOR THE SRES STORYLINES (NICHOLLS ET AL., 2007)........ 83 TABLE 7: PROJECTED GLOBAL MEAN CLIMATE PARAMETERS RELEVANT TO COASTAL AREAS AT THE ST END OF THE 21 CENTURY FOR THE SIX SRES SCENARIOS (NICHOLLS ET AL. 2007) .......... 83 TABLE 8: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS FOR AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL CITIES, 2070 A1FI 50TH PERCENTILE ........................................................................................................................................ 85 TABLE 9: KEY CLIMATE DRIVERS AND THEIR SIGNIFICANCE ON THE AUSTRALIAN COAST (FOLLOWING NCCOE 2004, P. 21) ................................................................................... 86 TABLE 10: SLSA CORE ACTIVITIES (SLSA 2007) ..................................................................... 91 TABLE 12: ROLES OF SLSA AND STATE CENTRES (SOURCE: BARRINGTON CONSULTING GROUP 2009) .............................................................................................................................. 92 TABLE 14: DELIVERY OF SPECIFIC ROLES WITHIN THE SURF LIFE SAVING (SOURCE: BARRINGTON CONSULTING GROUP 2009).............................................................................................. 93 Coastal