GoTriangle Financial Plan Version 1 Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project December 2016 GoTriangle Financial Plan Version History Version Date Description 0 02/24/2016 Initial document to FTA to demonstrate Engineering Readiness 1 12/29/2016 Document submittal to FTA for request to Enter Engineering Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project | December 2016 | Version 1 | i GoTriangle Financial Plan Table of Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Project Sponsor ............................................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 County Transit Plans .................................................................................................................................... 1-5 1.3 Relationship of County Transit Plans to New Starts Financial Plan ............................................................. 1-6 1.4 New Starts Project: D-O LRT Project ............................................................................................................ 1-7 1.5 Relationship of GoTriangle to Local Transit Systems ................................................................................. 1-10 1.5.1 GoDurham ..................................................................................................................................... 1-10 1.5.2 Durham County ACCESS ................................................................................................................ 1-10 1.5.3 Chapel Hill Transit .......................................................................................................................... 1-10 1.5.4 Orange Public Transportation ....................................................................................................... 1-10 1.5.5 GoRaleigh ...................................................................................................................................... 1-11 1.5.6 GoCary ........................................................................................................................................... 1-11 1.6 GoTriangle Historical Data ........................................................................................................................ 1-11 1.6.1 Capital Expenses ............................................................................................................................ 1-11 1.6.2 Capital Funding .............................................................................................................................. 1-13 1.6.3 Operating Expenses ....................................................................................................................... 1-13 1.6.4 Operating Revenues ...................................................................................................................... 1-15 1.6.5 Dedicated Local Revenues ............................................................................................................. 1-15 1.6.6 Service Levels and Ridership ......................................................................................................... 1-16 1.7 Regional Economic Conditions .................................................................................................................. 1-17 1.7.1 Population ..................................................................................................................................... 1-17 1.7.2 Employment .................................................................................................................................. 1-18 1.7.3 Inflation ......................................................................................................................................... 1-19 1.7.4 Raleigh-Durham International Airport Passengers ........................................................................ 1-20 1.8 Updates to Financial Plan from Previous Submittal .................................................................................. 1-22 1.8.1 Modifications to D-O LRT Project .................................................................................................. 1-22 1.8.2 Durham and Orange Transit Plans in Financial Model .................................................................. 1-22 1.8.3 N-S BRT Project .............................................................................................................................. 1-23 1.8.4 State Funding for D-O LRT Project ................................................................................................. 1-23 1.8.5 Article 43 Sales Tax Forecast ......................................................................................................... 1-23 1.8.6 New Local Funding Sources ........................................................................................................... 1-23 1.8.7 Source of Historical Data in Financial Model ................................................................................. 1-23 2. Capital Plan................................................................................................................................................ 2-1 2.1 D-O LRT Project Capital Cost Assumptions, Estimates, Reviews, and Contingencies .................................. 2-1 2.2 Project Capital Funding Sources .................................................................................................................. 2-2 2.2.1 Federal ............................................................................................................................................. 2-2 2.2.2 State ................................................................................................................................................ 2-2 2.2.3 Local................................................................................................................................................. 2-3 2.2.4 Financing ......................................................................................................................................... 2-8 2.2.5 Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 2-12 Durham-Orange Light Rail Transit Project | December 2016 | Version 1 | ii GoTriangle Financial Plan 2.3 State of Good Repair Reserves .................................................................................................................. 2-12 2.4 System Capital Cost Estimates and Assumptions ...................................................................................... 2-12 2.5 System Capital Funding Sources ................................................................................................................ 2-15 2.6 Mitigations for Potential Capital Funding Shortfalls or Cost Increases ..................................................... 2-16 2.7 20-Year GoTriangle System Capital Plan ................................................................................................... 2-17 3. Operating Plan ........................................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Service Level Projections .............................................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 D-O LRT Project O&M Costs ......................................................................................................................... 3-1 3.3 System O&M Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 3-2 3.4 O&M Funding Sources ................................................................................................................................. 3-3 3.4.1 Fare Revenues ................................................................................................................................. 3-5 3.4.2 Federal ............................................................................................................................................. 3-6 3.4.3 State ................................................................................................................................................ 3-6 3.4.4 Local................................................................................................................................................. 3-7 3.5 Cash Reserves for Potential O&M Funding Shortfalls or Cost Increases.................................................... 3-11 3.6 20-Year GoTriangle System O&M Plan ...................................................................................................... 3-11 4. GoTriangle System 20-Year Cash Flow ....................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 GoTriangle System Sources and Uses of Funds ........................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 4-3