ESSEX THAMESIDE STUDY Railway investment choices July 2020 CONTENTS 1 Foreword .......................................................................................................................................... 2 2 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 The Need for a Study............................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Expected Growth .................................................................................................................... 3 2.3 Options Development .......................................................................................................... 4 2.4 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 6 3 The Essex Thameside Corridor ................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Rail Industry Planning .......................................................................................................... 7 3.2 Geography & Scope ............................................................................................................... 8 3.3 Passenger Services .............................................................................................................. 10 3.4 Freight Services .................................................................................................................... 11 3.5 Recent Growth – Passenger ............................................................................................ 13 3.6 Recent Growth – Freight .................................................................................................. 16 3.7 Committed Schemes .......................................................................................................... 17 3.8 Uncommitted Schemes and Aspirations .................................................................. 20 4 Study Approach .......................................................................................................................... 24 4.1 Strategic Questions ............................................................................................................ 24 4.2 Methodology ......................................................................................................................... 25 4.3 Study Planning Horizon .................................................................................................... 25 4.4 Governance ............................................................................................................................ 26 5 Long-Term Growth Assessment ............................................................................................ 27 5.1 Growth Assessment – Passenger .................................................................................. 27 5.2 Growth Assessment – Freight ........................................................................................ 35 5.3 Impact on Stations ............................................................................................................. 37 6 Meeting the Forecast Demand ............................................................................................. 42 6.1 Network Capability and Capacity – Passenger ...................................................... 42 6.2 Priority Station Interventions ........................................................................................ 53 6.3 Other Station Interventions ........................................................................................... 62 6.4 Network Capability and Capacity – Freight ............................................................ 63 6.5 Level Crossings ...................................................................................................................... 65 7 Strategy Options ........................................................................................................................ 67 7.1 Responses to the Strategic Questions ........................................................................ 67 7.2 Summary of Options .......................................................................................................... 68 7.3 Higher Growth ...................................................................................................................... 73 7.4 Recommendations for Further Study ......................................................................... 74 1 1 FOREWORD The Essex Thameside corridor is a key rail area including the train operator, c2c, the route into London on the north Thames Department for Transport, Transport for estuary serving key towns such as London, Essex County Council and the Southend-on-Sea, Basildon, Grays and Association of South Essex Local Tilbury as well as large catchments in Authorities, who have formed part of the East London in areas such as Barking and study’s ‘board’. Dagenham. Although relatively small and quite self-contained compared to many Although a broad ranging study, it has other routes into London, the challenges focussed on long-term capacity and has that it faces in the future are significant. assessed the corridor under the overall Population growth in this area is question of ‘What interventions are expected to be one of the highest in the required to support the expected growth country and, alongside expected growth in passenger and freight services in the in freight handling along the corridor, the Essex Thameside area over the next 30 solutions for meeting this growth are years?’. This was supported by five sub- particularly challenging. questions to help establish the required infrastructure and station interventions This study seeks to identify the to support demand for passenger and generational challenge related to growth freight services in the long-term. by assessing forecast passenger and freight growth over the next 30 years. It The publication of this study is expected identifies a series of potential to be the start of further consideration of infrastructure and station improvements enhancement options for this corridor. to help funders make informed decisions These options will provide rail investment about enhancing this part of the national choices for the Secretary of State for rail network. Transport through the Department for Transport and Network Rail’s investment The study builds upon the findings of the pipeline. The study will also provide 2016 Anglia Route Study and forms part guidance to other Government of Network Rail’s programme of departments and sub-regional Continuous Modular Strategic Planning organisations on how this part of the rail (CMSP). The study has been facilitated network could develop to meet the by Network Rail, developed in employment and population growth partnership with key organisations in the expectations for this area. 2 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This study seeks to inform long-term which will help determine what investment choices for this strategically infrastructure and station interventions important south Essex corridor. It may be required on this corridor over the assesses a number of Strategic next generation.1 Questions, the answers and outputs to 2.1 THE NEED FOR A STUDY Conducting this study was considered a signalling solutions. This study priority for several reasons: complements this work, considering all capacity options and a longer • the pressures on this corridor from planning horizon for the period up to both passenger and freight demand 2050. are set to grow significantly over the next few decades due to housing and • recent studies have highlighted population growth, the growth of pedestrian capacity pressures at London Gateway and Tilbury ports, London Fenchurch Street, West Ham and regeneration proposals and Barking stations. This study (including new stations) opening up considers these findings in one place, new markets to travel. assesses their recommendations and presents the most valuable options • the 2016 Anglia Route Study for further investigation in light of identified several interventions for refreshed demand forecasts. this part of the route but did not develop these recommendations. The • studies are being completed for the core recommendation of introducing other two key main lines on the some longer trains in the short-term Anglia route, i.e. the Great Eastern will be implemented in 2021. Main Line (GEML) and the West Anglia Main Line (WAML). An • the Train Operating Company (TOC), equivalent study for Essex Thameside c2c, which is currently franchised to ensures that all three main corridors operate passenger services along the have been subject to a detailed corridor until 2029, has commenced assessment of future options. development work into digital 2.2 EXPECTED GROWTH Overall passenger demand in the high with growth at the critical load point peak is projected to grow 35% by 2050, (between Barking and West Ham) being 1 Assumed to be 30 years for the purpose of this study. 3 approximately 42%, from a 2018 base. combined with high population growth In the short-term, 9% growth is expected expected in east London boroughs and by 2025 which is likely to result in Thurrock. capacity challenges on parts of the corridor, particularly between Barking Growth in rail freight is also projected to and West Ham, and on both lines be strong, with unconstrained2 demand immediately