HITS AND MISSES: FAST GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN PHOENIX MORRISON INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY MORRISONSEPTEMBER INSTITUTE YEARFOR PUBLICTWO THOUSAND POLICY Acknowledgments Many people and organizations contributed to the preparation of this report. The work of scores of people and the support provided by public- and private-sector organizations are acknowledged gratefully. Nevertheless, the views expressed here remain solely those of Morrison Institute for Public Policy. Any errors of fact or interpretation are the responsibility of Morrison Institute. The Institute specifically thanks the following people and organizations. FUNDERS Terry Goddard, U.S. Department of Housing John DeGrove, Director, Joint Center & Urban Development for Environmental & Urban Problems, APS Andrew Gordon, Coppersmith & Gordon, PLC Florida Atlantic University Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Arizona Frank Fairbanks, City Manager, City of Phoenix Phil Gordon, City Council Member, City of Phoenix City of Chandler Ed Fox, Vice President, Environmental, Health, Lloyd Harrell, City of Chandler City of Glendale Safety & New Technology Ventures, APS City of Mesa Timothy Hogan, Center for Business Research, Grady Gammage, Jr., Attorney, Gammage & Burnham Arizona State University City of Peoria Terry Goddard, State Coordinator, U.S. Department John Keegan, Mayor, City of Peoria City of Phoenix of Housing & Urban Development Michael Kelly, City of Phoenix City of Scottsdale John Hall, Professor, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University City of Tempe Paul Koehler, Peoria Unified School District Lloyd Harrell, City Manager, City of Chandler East Valley Partnership Diane McCarthy, WESTMARC Edward W. Hill, Professor, Maxine Goodman Levin Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce Sharon Megdal, MegEcon Consulting College of Urban Affairs, Cleveland State University Greater Phoenix Economic Council Chris Mulholland, Scottsdale Chamber of Commerce Linda Hollis, Senior Research Associate, Greater Phoenix Leadership Solimar Research Group Margaret Mullen, Urban Realty Partners Maricopa County Jim Holway, Assistant Director, Motorola, Inc. John Ogden, SunCor Development Company Arizona Department of Water Resources Salt River Project Kevin Olson, Steptoe & Johnson Bruce Katz, Director and Senior Fellow, Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, StarDust Foundation A. J. Pfister, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University The Brookings Institution Scottsdale Chamber of Commerce/ Robert Lang, Director, Urban and Metropolitan Scottsdale Partnership Charles Redman, Center for Environmental Studies, Arizona State University Research, The Fannie Mae Foundation WESTMARC Skip Rimsza, Mayor, City of Phoenix Diane McCarthy, President, WESTMARC ADVISORS Mark Schnepf, Mayor, Town of Queen Creek Frank Mizner, Planning Director, City of Mesa Rolf Pendall, Assistant Professor, City and Julie Alvarado, Motorola Elaine Scruggs, Mayor, City of Glendale Regional Planning, Cornell University John Benton, Benton-Robb Development Tom Simplot, BRS Group A. J. Pfister, Distinguished Research Fellow, Steven Betts, Gallagher & Kennedy Frederick Steiner, School of Planning and Arizona State University Jerry Bisgrove, StarDust Companies Landscape Architecture, Arizona State University Luther Propst, Executive Director, Sonoran Institute Richard Bowers, City of Scottsdale Martin Vanacour, City of Glendale Charles Redman, Director, Center for Environmental Gary Brown, City of Tempe Rick Weddle, Greater Phoenix Economic Council Studies, Arizona State University Wayne Brown, Mayor, City of Mesa Mike Welborn, Bank One Arizona Judy Richardson, First Vice President, School Finance Consulting Services, Jay Butler, College of Business, Keven Ann Willey, The Arizona Republic Arizona State University Peacock, Hislop, Staley & Given, Inc. Sam Campana, Mayor, City of Scottsdale Ethan Seltzer, Director, Institute of Portland REVIEW CADRE Metropolitan Studies, Portland State University Frank Fairbanks, City of Phoenix Richard Bowers, City Manager, City of Scottsdale Frederick Steiner, Director, School of Planning: Joanie Flatt, East Valley Partnership R. Thomas Browning, Executive Director, Landscape Architecture, Arizona State University Ed Fox, APS Greater Phoenix Leadership Martin Vanacour, City Manager, City of Glendale Grady Gammage, Jr., Gammage & Burnham Robert Bulla, President, Executive Division, Rick Weddle, President, Neil Giuliano, Mayor, City of Tempe Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Arizona Greater Phoenix Economic Council This document is copyrighted ©2000 by the Arizona Board of Regents for and on behalf of Arizona State University and its Morrison Institute for Public Policy. HITS AND MISSES: FAST GROWTH IN METROPOLITAN PHOENIX Research Team: Mary Jo Waits Patricia Gober Associate Director Professor, Department of Geography Morrison Institute for Public Policy Arizona State University Rebecca L. Gau John Hall Senior Research Analyst Professor, School of Public Affairs Morrison Institute for Public Policy Arizona State University Mark Muro Alicia Harrison Senior Research Analyst Research Associate Morrison Institute for Public Policy Solimar Research Group Tina Valdecanas Kent Hill Senior Research Analyst Assistant Research Professional Morrison Institute for Public Policy Department of Economics Tom R. Rex Arizona State University Research Manager, Center for Business Research Glen Krutz Arizona State University Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science Arizona State University Leonard G. Bower Scott Smith Economist Support Systems Analyst Information Technology Research Support Lab – Elizabeth Burns GIS Services, Arizona State University Professor, Department of Geography Arizona State University Lisa DeLorenzo Jamie Goodwin-White, Graduate Assistant Assistant Professor, School of Public Affairs Morrison Institute for Public Policy Arizona State University Christina Kinnear, Graduate Assistant William Fulton Morrison Institute for Public Policy President Laura Valenzuela, Graduate Assistant Solimar Research Group Morrison Institute for Public Policy With Assistance From: Rob Melnick, Morrison Institute for Public Policy Karen Heard, Chalk Design Nancy Welch, The Insight Group Cherylene Schick, Morrison Institute for Public Policy SEPTEMBER 2000 Morrison Institute for Public Policy School of Public Affairs | College of Public Programs | Arizona State University P.O. Box 874405, Tempe Arizona 85287-4405 Voice (480) 965-4525 Fax (480) 965-9219 http://www.asu.edu/copp/morrison Preface Hits and Misses: Fast Growth in Metropolitan Phoenix is the first product Morrison Institute to make its findings available locally now. This detailed of a comprehensive effort to describe and analyze the region’s growth. The document offers significant data and discussion not included in the formal Brookings Institution Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy in Brookings case study. It also features a finer-grained local focus for local Washington, D.C. presented the opportunity for this project to Morrison audiences. Morrison Institute hopes the analyses and recommendations will Institute for Public Policy. foster a better understanding of the dynamics at work in this region and The Brookings Institution has been engaging leading local scholars to support wise decisions in the future. study the role of government policies in growth and development patterns Some readers will wonder why Hits and Misses does not take a specific in various metropolitan areas in recent years. As part of this urban agenda, stand on the growth management measures on the November 2000 ballot. the Brookings Center invited Morrison Institute to prepare a case study of The two measures represent a key moment in both Phoenix’ and the state’s the Phoenix region to supplement reports on the other five cities already growth history, so this report’s silence on the proposals may seem peculiar. involved in the national research. Soon thereafter, Morrison Institute invit- However, in keeping with this study’s purpose to identify the causes of ed a number of metropolitan Phoenix cities, businesses and civic alliances growth patterns, the Morrison Institute team chose to pass over discussion to provide financial support for this new investigation. The supporting of particular ballot items in favor of offering fresh data and new options for organizations were eager to obtain fresh, quality information about growth thinking about the challenges and opportunities of rapid growth. Such an in the area at a time of increasing anxiety about the topic. They also saw the approach sacrifices topicality in favor of a potentially longer-lasting effect benefit of showcasing metropolitan Phoenix’ sometimes surprising story on the region’s future. within Brookings’ larger set of case studies. The story of growth in metropolitan Phoenix is a complicated, often The formal Phoenix case study will appear next year as a chapter in a surprising, tale. There is much to be proud of in the region. Yet there is also Brookings Institution book with national distribution. However, the press- much to worry about, and much that needs to be done. Hits and Misses will ing public debate about growth issues in metropolitan Phoenix obliged have been successful if it becomes a catalyst for getting started. A NOTE ABOUT DATA Any study of this kind depends on accumulating a comprehensive and up-to-date body of research that can inform regional policy making. Fortunately, many cities in the region as well as the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG), the Central