Online Foreign Policy Discourse in Contemporary China: Netizens, Nationalism, and the New Media by Jackson S. Woods B.A. in Asian Studies and Political Science, May 2008, University of Michigan M.A. in Political Science, May 2013, The George Washington University A Dissertation submitted to The Faculty of The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 31, 2017 Bruce J. Dickson Professor of Political Science and International Affairs The Columbian College of Arts and Sciences of The George Washington University certifies that Jackson S. Woods has passed the Final Examination for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy as of September 6, 2016. This is the final and approved form of the dissertation. Online Foreign Policy Discourse in Contemporary China: Netizens, Nationalism, and the New Media Jackson S. Woods Dissertation Research Committee: Bruce J. Dickson, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Dissertation Director Henry J. Farrell, Associate Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member Charles L. Glaser, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member David L. Shambaugh, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, Committee Member ii © Copyright 2017 by Jackson S. Woods All rights reserved iii Acknowledgments The author wishes to acknowledge the many individuals and organizations that have made this research possible. At George Washington University, I have been very fortunate to receive guidance from a committee of exceptional scholars and mentors. As committee chair, Bruce Dickson steered me through the multi-year process of designing, funding, researching, and writing a dissertation manuscript. I am grateful for his wisdom, generosity, and good humor throughout. Working with him has been a highlight of my time at GW. Henry Farrell, Charles Glaser, and David Shambaugh each made countless suggestions that have significantly shaped the final product. From my choice of topic through my dissertation defense, their individual perspectives have been invaluable. I also thank Mike Mochizuki and Robert Sutter, who took the time to read the dissertation and lend their views on the final draft. In addition to my committee members, numerous others at George Washington University have contributed to the writing of this manuscript. I would like to especially acknowledge Chunhua Chen, Inwook Kim, Seokjoon Kim, Julia Macdonald, and Chana Solomon-Schwartz, all of whom have provided incisive feedback and indispensable friendship during the past seven years. Daniel Chudnov and the GW Libraries Scholarly Technology Group played a major role in helping me collect the social media data at the heart of this study. The coding assistance, computing resources, and considered guidance which Dan afforded me pushed this research project from idea to reality. Participants at the GW East Asian Politics Workshop and GW Comparative Politics Workshop offered many beneficial comments on my research, as did discussants and panelists at the annual conventions of the International Studies Association, Midwest Political Science Association, and American Political Science Association. For providing the funding that enabled me to carry out this study, both in China and the United States, I am grateful to the Boren iv Fellowship program, the GW Sigur Center for Asian Studies, and the GW Department of Political Science. While in Beijing, I also benefitted twice from the opportunity to study at the Inter-University Program for Chinese Language Studies at Tsinghua University. Among many others, Sun Shuang, Wang Qian, Zhan Shuang, and Zhao Jie were instrumental in helping me develop the language skills upon which this study depends. While I undertook this research at George Washington University, my engagement with China truly began at the University of Michigan. It is only appropriate to acknowledge the individuals there who first set me on this path. Hilda Tao, Laura Grande, Wei Liu, and Qinghai Chen were each outstanding teachers of the Chinese language. Their own devotion brought out the best in their students. David Rolston introduced me not only to Chinese literature but also to the study of classical Chinese, an underappreciated skill for those learning modern Mandarin. Ken Lieberthal led a seminar in Chinese politics that was among the best of many fine courses I took at Michigan, and he offered thoughtful individual advising that confirmed my decision to pursue a Ph.D. in Political Science. William Baxter supervised my honors thesis research in Chinese Studies, a key stepping stone on the road to this dissertation. His many hours of talk and advice on a wide variety of subjects were all sincerely appreciated. Last, I must thank the friends and family who have supported me across more than a decade of studying this fascinating nation. Of the 120 freshmen who enrolled in Chinese 101 in September 2004, Adam Steenwyk was the only other student in the Class of 2008 to complete the entire four-year non-heritage Chinese language sequence at Michigan. Our mutual dedication made a challenging road that much easier to travel. Trevor Gao, Oliver Xu, and Stella Liu were each true ambassadors for their country as well as trusted guides and friends. I could not have asked for a better introduction to China than that which they gave me. My grandmothers, Esther Woods Holmes and Geraldine Redding, have been constant sources of love and encouragement. My parents-in-law, Steve and Susan Schmidt, have displayed impressive patience and unflinching support throughout. Both qualities were cherished more than they can know. My parents, Bill and v Nancy Woods, taught me from a young age the value of knowing the world beyond my doorstep. It is only honesty to say that I could not have done this without them. Finally, I offer my deepest gratitude to my wife, Mandi Elizabeth Woods. From moving to Tianjin on her own eight years ago to helping me across the finish line in Washington, she has been part of this work each step of the way. Our journey together is my greatest joy. vi Abstract of Dissertation Online Foreign Policy Discourse in Contemporary China: Netizens, Nationalism, and the New Media What causes the Chinese online public to challenge their government’s handling of foreign policy events? How does the state respond to such challenges? Both public dissent and state repression of online discourse vary widely across events. This dissertation argues that two key factors explain this variation: the relative nationalist significance of a given issue, and the coherence of state propaganda addressing it. Previous explanations for public dissent over foreign policy issues in Western nations have focused on elite divisions. This study builds on such work to argue that the Chinese public is capable of offering meaningful, independent discourse about China’s foreign relations, but will do so only when the issue at hand is of high nationalist significance and state propaganda is unfocused. Since China lacks open divisions among elites, the absence of a clear official narrative is a necessary condition for widespread online dissent. State dominance of the public discourse is thus a common but not inevitable outcome, alongside independent discourse, limited discourse, and accord between the state and public. Meanwhile, recent work has argued that an event’s potential for collective action explains patterns of repression on the Chinese Internet. Although this may be true in the aggregate, foreign policy issues are different. When faced with an external actor and the threat of nationalist challenges to the Party, repression becomes more likely the more that public discourse deviates from favored official narratives. Censorship, news blackouts, and other repressive actions do not follow directly from the presence or absence of collective action around foreign policy events but from the relative severity of the public’s challenge to the state. vii Four key cases are used to test these arguments: the November 2013 East China Sea ADIZ announcement, the December 2013 visit to the Yasukuni Shrine by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Kiev protests and Russian invasion of Crimea during February and March of 2014, and the May 2014 Haiyang Shiyou 981 oil rig dispute which prompted anti-Chinese protests in Vietnam. This study utilizes millions of Sina Weibo messages collected from 2013 to 2015, hundreds of articles published in official media, and face-to-face interviews with Chinese experts on foreign policy and media. It employs quantitative analysis of textual data via sentiment analysis and topic modeling techniques, as well as qualitative examination of content and trends online and in official media. This research contributes to our understanding not only of online political discourse and state-society relations in China, but also to debates over the role of public opinion in authoritarian states and the nature of nationalism in the PRC. viii Table of Contents Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................... iv Abstract of Dissertation ................................................................................................................. vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. x