Y’all Ready for This? The Olympic Games are finally upon us! August 14-21. In Athens, Greece— birthplace of the modern Olympic movement. Four years in the making. Eight days of drama unlike any other. Here’s a glimpse of what you can expect. By Phillip Whitten USA Swimming came out of the women will be hard-pressed to earn a Olympic Trials in Long Beach on a medal of any kind in as many as seven major league high. And no wonder: events: the 50 through 400 free, 200 • U.S. swimmers set six world and back and both butterfly events. seven American records. In the past, however, U.S. teams • Even more impressive, they did it have gone into the Olympics with only in a pool universally acknowledged to modest prospects and emerged cov- be slow. ered with glory. It remains to be seen • The temporary pool, with excel- whether this team, endowed with lent seating for about 10,000 specta- enormous potential, can rise to the tors, was an overwhelming success— occasion. more than 100,000 tickets were sold The remainder of this article con- for the meet’s 15 sessions. sists of our predictions for gold, silver • Michael Phelps’ quest to equal or and bronze in each race, as well as a surpass Mark Spitz’ seven Olympic list of potential medal challengers. gold medals from the 1972 Munich Many of the races are extremely diffi- Games was generating heavy, main- cult to handicap, particularly the stream media coverage, some of Inge de Bruijn men’s 50 and 100 free, all the women’s which was spilling over to other top Photo by Jonathan Wood, Getty Images freestyle events plus the 200 back and American swimmers and to our sport The major contrast between the two 200 IM. in general. teams, however, lies in their pro- Part of the reason is that there are a Yet, the picture is not all rosy. spects. lot of unknowns, among them: Yes, the 43-member U.S. swim The U.S. men should be favored to • What kind of team will the Chinese team—21 men and 22 women—is win gold in fully nine of the 13 indi- bring to Athens four years before expected to dominate in Athens. But vidual events and probably two of Beijing? the makeup of the men’s and wom- the three relays: the 50 free, 100 and • Will the British bounce back from en’s team—and their prospects— 200 back, 100 and 200 breast, 100 their disastrous performance in could not be more different. and 200 fly, 200 and 400 IM, and Sydney (no medals)? For starters, 17 of the 21 men— both the 400 medley and free relays. • Will the young Aussie women’s nearly 81 percent—are professional In the remaining events—the 100, team swim to its potential? athletes, a radical change from past 200, 400 and 1500 meter freestyle • Will the media attention affect U.S. teams. Only 12 of the women— and 800 meter free relay—the Michael Phelps—particularly if he fails 54.5 percent—are pros. American men are likely to contend to live up to the eight-gold hype? In terms of experience at the for silver and bronze medals. Despite the bumps and hazards, we Olympic level, the differences are even The U.S. women, by contrast, are have ventured hesitatingly, and with more striking: 11 of the men, but only only favored in the 100 back and, per- due humility, on this road, where five of the women, have swum on pre- haps, the 200 breast and 400 medley much wiser souls have feared to tread. vious U.S. Olympic teams. relay. Unlike the men, the American Here, then, are our predictions: SWIMMING WORLD AND JUNIOR SWIMMER AUGUST 2004 21 WORLD SWIMMING HTTP://WWW.SWIMINFO.COM WOMEN improving quickly. The U.S. duo of 50 METER FREESTYLE Jenny Thompson and Kara Lynn We haven’t heard much from Inge Joyce will be hard-pressed to medal. De Bruijn lately, but she’s been train- ing under the watchful eye of Paul Gold: Inge de Bruijn (NED) Bergen, and you can bet she’ll be Silver: Libby Lenton (AUS) ready to rumble when the whistle Bronze: Michelle Englesman (AUS) blows and the world’s eight fastest women mount the starting blocks. The Challengers: Marleen Veldhuis Just over 24 seconds later, Inky should (NED); Therese Alshammar (SWE); get her hand on the wall first. Aussies Malia Metella (FRA); Jenny Libby Lenton and Michelle Engles- Thompson and Kara Lynn Joyce man, hoping to upset the “Flying (USA), Allison Sheppard (GBR). Dutchwoman,” should take second and third, though they face some for- 100 METER FREESTYLE Franziska van Almsick midable challengers. Britain’s Allison How fast is the 100 free this year? Photo by Alexandra Winkler, Reuters Sheppard, 33, competing in her fifth Consider this: last year, 18-year-old Olympics, is looking to regain her Finn, Hanna-Maria Seppala, won the yet and already eight women have form of the last two years; Holland’s World Championships and ranked swum faster. Seppala only ranks 24th Marleen Veldhuis has joined the sub- No. 1 globally with a 54.37. The major with a 55.36. The 100 free in Athens 25-second club; Sweden’s Therese meet of 2004 has not even taken place should easily be the fastest in history, Alshammar, the short course WR- with as many as four women under 54 holder, is training hard; and France’s seconds. Any one of those women Malia Metella is could win it, but we think Jodie Henry’s combination of youth plus poise gives her the edge. The two Schedule of Olympic Finals Americans, Natalie Coughlin and Kara Lynn Joyce, could surprise. WOMEN MEN 400 IM (P Aug. 14) 400 IM (P Aug. 14) Day 1: Aug. 14 Gold: Jodie Henry (AUS) 4x100 FR (P Aug. 14) 400 Free (P Aug. 14) Silver: Inge De Bruijn (NED) Bronze: Libby Lenton (AUS) 100 Fly (P, SF Aug. 14) 100 Breast (P, SF Aug. 14) Day 2: Aug. 15 400 Free (P Aug. 15) 4x100 FR (P Aug. 15) The Challengers: Natalie Coughlin and Kara Lynn Joyce (USA), Federica 100 Back (P, SF Aug. 15) 200 Free (P, SF Aug. 15) Day 3: Aug. 16 Pellegrini (ITA), Malia Metella (FRA), 100 Breast (P, SF Aug. 15) 100 Back (P, SF Aug. 15) Melanie Marshall (GBR). 200 Free (P, SF Aug. 16) 200 Fly (P, SF Aug. 16) Day 4: Aug. 17 200 METER FREESTYLE 200 IM (P, SF Aug. 16) 4x200 FR (P Aug. 17) One month before the Games are set to begin, fully 25 women have 200 Fly (P, SF Aug. 17) 200 Breast (P, SF Aug. 17) Day 5: Aug. 18 swum the 200 free under two min- 4x200 FR (P Aug. 18) 100 Free (P, SF Aug. 17) utes, but none has established herself as the favorite. As we went to press, 200 Breast (P, SF Aug. 18) 200 Back (P, SF Aug. 18) Day 6: Aug. 19 there were a lot more questions than 100 Free (P, SF Aug. 18) 200 IM (P, SF Aug. 18) answers: Will Germany’s Franzi van Almsick finally win that elusive gold in 200 Back (P, SF Aug. 19) 100 Fly (P, SF Aug. 19) Day 7: Aug. 20 her final Olympic appearance? Can 800 Free (P Aug. 19) 50 Free (P, SF Aug. 19) Claudia Poll, the 1996 Olympic cham- pion, come back after a two-year sus- 50 Free (P, SF Aug. 20) 1500 Free (P Aug. 20) Day 8: Aug. 21 pension? Is Poland’s Otylia 4x100 MR (P Aug. 20) 4x100 MR (P Aug. 20) Jedrzejczak, the 200 fly WR-holder, for real? The USA’s Lindsay Benko, last P Prelims year’s world leader with an American SF Semifinals record 1:57.41, was almost two sec- onds slower at Trials. Will she be her 22 SWIMMING WORLD AND JUNIOR SWIMMER AUGUST 2004 Yamada. Still, this will be a tightly- Gold: Natalie Coughlin (USA) fought battle with at least half a dozen Silver: Laure Manaudou (FRA) swimmers having a legitimate shot at Bronze: Antje Buschschulte (GER) the gold, or at least a medal of some color. The Challengers: Reiko Nakamura (JPN), Katy Sexton and Sarah Price Gold: Sachiko Yamada (JPN) (GBR), Haley Cope (USA), Gao Chang Silver: Diana Munz (USA) and Chen Xiujun (CHN). Bronze: Kalyn Keller (USA) 200 METER BACKSTROKE The Challengers: Flavia Rigamonti Here is still another race that is (SUI), Ai Shibata (JPN), Laure totally up for grabs. Russia’s Manaudou (FRA), Camelia Potec Stanislava Komarova should have the (ROM), Rebecca Cooke (GBR), inside track, but she has been less Hannah Stockbauer (GER). than consistent. The two Japanese Leisel Jones and British dorsal swimmers, on the Photo by Jeff Crow, Sport•The Library 100 METER BACKSTROKE other hand, have been more consis- old self by Athens? And that’s just for World record holder Natalie tent but have less basic speed. The starters. It’s truly a toss-up, but we Coughlin has swum the 100 back- USA’s Margaret Hoelzer and Kristen think the race may wind up like this: stroke under a minute on three sepa- Caverly are longshots, but could fig- rate occasions. No other woman has ure in the medals. Gold: Melanie Marshall (GBR) ever broken the one-minute barrier Silver: Franziska van Almsick (GER) even once. So Coughlin is heavily Gold: Stanislava Komarova (RUS) Bronze: Otylia Jedrzejczak (POL) favored to win this event in Athens.