Mapping the Future of Global Travel and Tourism More than fifty years ago, the burgeoning Jet Age introduced bigger, faster airplanes—which made travel more affordable than ever before and transformed international travel and tourism from a luxury requiring significant time and money to a leisure activity enjoyed by a much broader spectrum of society. Today, the promise of Jet Rising global traveling class Global aging Increasing connectivity Age travel is soaring to new Visa estimates that more than By 2025, travelers aged 65+ The forces of globalization heights. According to data 280 million households will will more than double their and technology are shrinking from the UN World Tourism be traveling internationally by international travel to 180 distances. Construction Organization, more than 2025. Growing income levels million trips, accounting for of more than 340 new 1.2 billion people made an around the world are creating one in eight international trips airports is expected over international trip in 2015— a new “traveling class.” globally. Older travelers can the next decade, creating this is expected to increase Households making $20,000 afford bigger trips and are new routes and destinations 50 percent to more than 1.8 USD or more per year account more focused on comfort and that will make international billion world travelers over the for 90 percent of spending health than saving money. travel easier and more next 10 years.¹ International on international travel and Long-term, the aging traveler convenient. At the same travel spending is also about four out of every five will transform travel and one time, awareness of alternative expected to surge. international travel arrivals area that is already growing modes of transportation, today. By this calculation, in response is the so-called accommodations, By 2025, estimated cross- nearly half of all households “medical tourism” industry as destinations, cost and other border travel around the globally will belong to the more travelers opt to combine travel options is spreading globe will rise dramatically, traveling class by 2025. medical treatments with with the rapid uptake in with spending reaching nearly vacation. Internet access and the $1.5 trillion in 2015 dollars Visa estimates travelers from number of mobile devices annually, according to a new nearly one in three of these around the world. Digital Visa study. However, it is not traveling class households will connectivity is not only just that more international take at least one international fostering greater spontaneity travel and tourism is taking trip per year. Households in in travel, but also a broader place than ever before, but emerging markets will fuel array of personalized travel also how it is unfolding. Three the growth in global travel, and tourism options as well. mega-trends are reshaping representing nearly half of all and accelerating the growth traveling households by 2025. of travel and tourism: ¹UN World Tourism Organization, UNWTO Tourism Barometer, January 2016, Vol. 14. 2 Drawing on the power of major purchase categories; This executive summary the world’s most advanced provide a near real-time leverages VisaNet information processing network, Visa can view into spending across to dig deeper into the help you better understand regions, countries and major three travel mega-trends these and other global travel cities; and even insight into highlighted in the study, and tourism trends. With the number of cross-border which was conducted with billions of transactions flowing visitors and key differences in Oxford Economics. The through VisaNet every day, their spending habits. Visa’s summary also provides a Visa sees roughly 25 cents of data is more comprehensive handful of concrete examples every U.S. retail dollar spent and timely than virtually any that show how Visa’s unique around the globe. Using other source—capturing data and insights can help these actual transactions transactions that occur online you stay ahead of the trends as a starting point, Visa can and in physical stores, often by providing a greater employ sophisticated data well ahead of other industry understanding of the growing analysis methods to monitor stats. travel and tourism industry. spending patterns across 3 Rising global traveling class Top 10 Countries/Regions in Travel Spend Two major forces are giving rise to a new global traveling 2015 2025 Percent Rank Country/Region class. First, the significant (USD billion) (USD billion) Increase expansion of the middle class 1 Mainland China $137.0 $255.4 86% – especially in the developing world – means more people 2 United States of America $101.0 $134.1 33% are aware of the opportunities 3 Germany $74.4 $97.6 31% of global travel and have the resources to take a trip. 4 United Kingdom $61.3 $96.9 58% Second, international travel 5 Russian Federation $22.6 $49.1 118% has become more affordable thanks to new, more efficient 6 Hong Kong $26.7 $47.4 78% technology and heightened 7 Singapore $22.5 $44.9 99% competition. By 2025, nearly half of all households globally 8 France $37.4 $43.9 17% should be able to afford travel 9 Brazil $18.3 $37.8 106% as part of the new traveling class, although we estimate 10 South Korea $21.1 $34.3 63% one in eight households will This chart depicts travel spend by households earning more than $20,000 per year in the top 10 countries/regions actually travel. with the highest projected spend in 2025. Figures are in USD billions (constant 2015 prices). This democratization of travel will lead to a profound increase in global tourism spending. As a result, Visa estimates that households traveling abroad will spend more than $5,300 a year in Keeping ahead of the crowds at the 2014 World Cup today’s dollars by 2025. (The estimate includes spending The World Cup soccer tournament is one of the biggest international while traveling, such as food sporting events, attracting spectators from every corner of the globe. and hotel, but not prior to the Analyzing the streams of travelers who visited the host country over the trip, such as airline tickets.) course of the six-week tournament has been a challenge historically, especially to understand the overall impact of who and how many attended, Additionally, we expect that both in the stadiums and other special events. That’s where Visa transaction traveling class households data can help. in emerging markets will rapidly converge with their Based on Visa spending data, we estimate that more than 1 million overseas counterparts in the developed travelers visited Brazil during the 2014 World Cup. Nearly half of the visitors markets in aggregate travel (46 percent) came from an emerging economy—perhaps one of the spending within the next strongest signs of the increasing prominence of the rising traveling class. 10 years—accounting for 45 percent of the $1.5 trillion Not surprisingly, neighboring Argentina brought the biggest crowds. About in annual spending globally 294,000 Argentinean travelers came to Brazil during the World Cup—159,000 on cross-border tourism more than the average number of monthly visitors during the year. The projected by 2025. Mainland United States had the second-biggest showing—about 183,000 visitors. China will be the top spender —with Chinese travelers Understanding these travel patterns is crucial for government and business projected to nearly double leaders seeking to maximize tourist spending. This can inform the planning their spending to $255 billion, and strategies for future events, such as the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de representing nearly one-sixth Janeiro, notwithstanding unforeseen developments like political instability of global travel spending in or environmental matters that could compromise any plans. It can also 2025. provide key benchmarks and other metrics to help measure progress toward broader, long-term tourism goals, as well. 4 Global aging The world’s population is aging. Over the last 50 years, the travel industry has benefited from these changing demographics as the ranks of the so-called “prime traveling population”— those between the ages of 25 and 65—have grown each year. This, however, will soon change. Over the next decade, the share of prime travelers of the total global population is expected to remain flat, and will start to decline in 2025—meaning that travelers Monitoring medical tourism trends over the age of 65 will be the only segment of the traveling Only a few years ago, medical tourism was a blip in overall global tourism population that is expected to spending. Today, it is a multi-billion dollar industry that is expected to gain share. increase by up to 25 percent per year over the next 10 years.² Of course, older travelers Using Visa transaction data we can see how much medical tourism has take only about half as many grown and project future growth from there. As the world’s population international trips as the ages, hundreds of thousands of travelers are expected to seek medical average traveler. Yet, so many services outside their home country/region—and spend billions of dollars more of them will be traveling on treatments. Visa can provide a near real-time view into the size and that they are expected to scope of the world’s leading medical tourism centers. account for 13 percent of all international travel by 2025. By examining cross-border spending for medical services in more than 176 countries/regions, we found the United States to be the single largest hub In addition, older travelers’ for medical tourism. Thailand, Singapore, Germany, Korea, and Spain are needs and preferences are not quickly catching up, increasingly attracting visitors from around the world, all the same. Some will seek to according to an analysis of transaction data.