65th Year -- No. 3600 Friday, August 7, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com facebook.com/mauritius.times 18 Pages - ePaper MAURITIUS TIMES “Very little is needed to make a happy life; it is all within yourself, in your way of thinking”. -- Marcus Aurelius Le procès des colons Interview: Chetan Ramchurn - Entrepreneur & Political Observer La symbiose entre l'Etat et l'oligarchie dément le discours sectaire “L'Etat, sous tous les gouvernements depuis 1968, a permis le développement de la bourgeoisie historique (oligarchie économique traditionnelle) dans le cadre d'un partage des richesses entre le secteur public et le secteur privé. Aujourd'hui, l'Etat agit comme agent du capitalisme avec la politique néolibérale fondée sur la facilitation des Labour Party-MMM-PMSD Common Front affaires, les dérégulations du marché et la fiscalité légère. Il y a une “Everything is possible in symbiose parfaite entre la bourgeoisie historique et la bourgeoisie d'Etat, qui démontre la duplicité et la perfidie d'un discours sectaire visant à jeter de la poudre aux yeux du public…” politics but the right strategy Par Aditya Narayan + Voir Page 4 has yet to be found” The Modi Magic + See Pages 8-9-10 The performance of the leaders in some big democracies was much Coronavirus is pushing people into less than what had been anticipated based on their respective electoral manifestos. Not so with India's Prime Minister Narendra poverty – but temporary basic Modi, whom the people of India returned to power a second time round with an even greater majority than the first time. income can stop this By Dr R Neerunjun Gopee + See Page 3 By Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez + See Page 2 Mauritius Times Friday, August 7, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com Edit Page facebook.com/mauritius.times 2 The Conversation Reopening borders Coronavirus is pushing people into poverty ccording to the Labour Office, 6339 emplo- especially research and education, health, etc., as – but temporary basic income can stop this yees have lost their jobs during the period well as ‘take a much more active role in the labour TApril-July 2020. More than 50% are the market, heavily subsidising jobs and training to he rapid spread of Covid- direct consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic on encourage growth in the key sectors needed in the 19 across developing the different sectors in which they were employed, future’. This is what helped the US to get out of the Tcountries has led to a mostly in the tourism industry, hotels and restau- Great Depression of 1929, and was President devastating loss of life and rants. However, these figures do not tell the whole Roosevelt’s idea. livelihoods. The pandemic is story: they most likely leave out the many thou- On the other hand, the strong lobbying in having both immediate eco- sands who have found themselves in a very tricky favour of the reopening of our skies for interna- nomic effects and long-lasting situation in this pandemic. They are the self- tional passenger flights, arguing that its prolonged consequences on development. employed and the SMEs, whose income has fallen closure will damage the economy, will have to be This is because developing drastically - but they too have families to feed, other weighed against the inherent risks of a second economies are less able to han- financial commitments to take care of, such as wave of the pandemic in so doing. It must be noted dle shocks than advanced The pandemic has disrupted informal work business, housing and educational loans to repay, that the few cases that have been registered lately ones. worldwide, leaving many without any form etc. are imported ones. Around 80% of workers in of income. EPA-EFE Most economists have been saying that the developing countries are Dr Soumya Swaminathan, chief scientist of the 2. Lump sum transfers equivalent to worse is yet to come, with thousands more swelling engaged in tasks that are unlikely to World Health Organization, stated recently that half the income enjoyed by the the numbers of the unemployed in the months be performed from home, meaning despite stringent public health measures, there is a typical citizen. ahead. Unemployment in 2019 reached 7% of the real risk of a second wave as economies reopen. lockdowns are preventing them from labour force - 37,900 people -, and Finance minis- Until an effective and safe vaccine emerges, there working. And 70% of workers make a 3. Lump sum transfers that are uni ter Renganaden Padayachy himself stated in his would be a need to live with and manage this virus living in informal markets, with the form regardless of the country first intervention on the impacts of Covid-19 on the for the ’next couple of years’. majority not being covered by any where people live. Under this Mauritian economy that the unemployment rate system, the amount we simulated That is the scenario we have to reckon with. form of social protection. Covid-19 could climb to 17%. This means about 100,000 containment measures are leaving a was US$5.50 (£4.30) a day per finding themselves out of a job by the end of the It is true that the Seychelles now allows visitors large number of people without any person, which is the typical level year – and probably more in the informal economy. to its remote islands since August 1, but that’s only income. of the poverty line among upper if they're from low-risk countries travelling in private The critical issues that arise are: middle-income countries. jets and chartered passenger direct flights. Global poverty has fallen over the 1. How to support industry and trade so as to pre Travellers also need to undergo a Covid-19 test past three decades, but many of Which option is best will depend serve employment; before boarding any flight. The limited reopening is those lifted out of it have remained on the situation. For instance, the 2. Support to be given to the informal sector and based on the advice of the Seychelles’ health vulnerable. They sit just above the first will only work in countries where SME’s; authority and is designed to limit risk of Covid-19 poverty line, but are ineligible for registry systems have accurate infor- existing anti-poverty cash assis- mation on what people earn. In coun- 3. Balancing of the risks of re-opening to prevent transmission to people living and working on the 115 islands that make up the archipelago. tance. In a previous article, my co- tries where such systems are absent a second wave. or weak, flat amounts according to As far as Mauritius is concerned, the entry of authors and I argued that this could While income support by the State has helped general living standards (as in option aircraft and ships in the country is prohibited until lead to an increase in global poverty in some measure, but with the Wage Assistance two) or poverty lines (option three) 31 August 2020, except for those aircrafts and for the first time since the 1990s, with Scheme now focusing on the tourism and related tens of millions falling back below the might be better. sectors, economic operators in other sectors and ships as may be approved by the Prime Minister. It is unknown at this stage if the government will go poverty line. Such a situation, I The total cost amounts to their employees have been left to fend for them- believe, calls for drastic action. selves. This aspect of the ground realities and the for a limited reopening for visitors from low-risk between US$200 billion and US$465 plight of the affected stakeholders are not reflected countries or otherwise, but here the point made by Extraordinary measures billion per month, depending on the Steve Schifferes in his article cited above may policy choice. This is equivalent to by statistics. This is where the government might In a recent working paper for the have to consider extending ‘higher – and uncondi- serve as a guide for decision-makers. It is that ‘his- between 0.27% and 0.63% of deve- torical evidence from the 1918 ‘flu shows that United Nations Development loping countries’ combined monthly tional – benefits for those who will be unemployed, Programme, my co-author George maybe moving towards a minimum income gua- extending public health measures to prevent the GDP. Gray Molina and I argue that uncon- rantee’, as proposed by Steve Schifferes of the spread of a virus does less economic damage in ditional emergency assistance – It’s a relatively moderate cost to University of London in a contribution to The the long run than letting it ravage the entire popu- what we call temporary basic income cover such a profound shock and Conversation. lation’. (TBI) – is an urgent, fair and feasible protect people from poverty. And pro- The salient point in the face of the prolonged It might also have, he adds, ‘to provide tempo- way of stopping people falling into viding TBI could have other positive impact of Covid-19 is that government has the rary government jobs to improve our social and poverty or further impoverishment as effects as well: unconditional cash major role to play in saving livelihoods in both the physical infrastructure, such as happened in the a result of the pandemic. transfers can lead to people spen- New Deal in 1930s America, which improved major sectors of the economy, and in the informal ding more money on their diet and schools and hospitals, built national parks and sector which should have a less cumbersome Looking at pre-crisis data that can potentially improve health out- planted trees around the country.