BoR (16) 171 Challenges and drivers of NGA rollout and infrastructure competition 6 October 2016 BoR (16) 171 Table of contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 7 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 2 Analysis of the drivers of NGA rollout ........................................................................... 10 2.1 Infrastructure competition ...................................................................................... 12 2.2 Demand side factors ............................................................................................. 14 2.3 Supply side factors................................................................................................ 18 2.3.1 Population density and urbanisation .............................................................. 19 2.3.2 Network related factors .................................................................................. 20 2.3.3 Retail prices ................................................................................................... 23 2.3.4 Legislative factors .......................................................................................... 24 2.3.5 Investment of municipalities / local governmental initiatives ........................... 25 2.3.6 State aid ........................................................................................................ 27 2.4 Conclusions on the factors driving NGA rollout ..................................................... 29 3 NGA rollout and regulation ........................................................................................... 31 3.1 Possible relations between regulation, investment and competition ...................... 31 3.2 Regulatory approaches in practice ........................................................................ 33 3.3 Discussion of regulatory approaches .................................................................... 39 4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 40 Annex 1: Literature Review ................................................................................................. 42 Annex 2: NGA country case stories ..................................................................................... 47 NGA in Austria ................................................................................................................. 47 NGA in Belgium ............................................................................................................... 49 NGA in Bulgaria ............................................................................................................... 52 NGA in Croatia ................................................................................................................ 54 NGA in Cyprus ................................................................................................................ 59 NGA in the Czech Republic ............................................................................................. 62 NGA in Denmark ............................................................................................................. 64 NGA in Finland ................................................................................................................ 66 NGA in France ................................................................................................................. 68 NGA in Germany ............................................................................................................. 70 NGA in Greece ................................................................................................................ 74 NGA in Ireland ................................................................................................................. 76 NGA in Italy ..................................................................................................................... 83 2 BoR (16) 171 NGA in Latvia .................................................................................................................. 86 NGA in Liechtenstein ....................................................................................................... 89 NGA in Lithuania ............................................................................................................. 92 NGA in Luxembourg ........................................................................................................ 96 NGA in Malta ................................................................................................................. 100 NGA in the Netherlands ................................................................................................. 101 NGA in Poland ............................................................................................................... 104 NGA in Portugal ............................................................................................................ 106 NGA in Romania ........................................................................................................... 111 NGA in Slovakia ............................................................................................................ 114 NGA in Slovenia ............................................................................................................ 118 NGA in Spain ................................................................................................................. 121 NGA in Sweden ............................................................................................................. 125 NGA in Switzerland ....................................................................................................... 127 NGA in the United Kingdom ........................................................................................... 130 References ....................................................................................................................... 134 3 BoR (16) 171 Country Codes AT Austria EL Greece NO Norway BE Belgium HU Hungary PL Poland BG Bulgaria IS Iceland PT Portugal HR Croatia IE Ireland RO Romania CY Cyprus IT Italy SK Slovakia CZ Czech Republic LV Latvia SI Slovenia DK Denmark LI Liechtenstein ES Spain EE Estonia LT Lithuania SE Sweden FI Finland LU Luxembourg CH Switzerland FR France MT Malta UK United Kingdom DE Germany NL Netherlands List of abbreviations ADSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line CO Central Office DAE Digital Agenda for Europe DOCSIS Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification DSL Digital Subscriber Line EC European Commission EU European Union FTTB Fibre to the Building FTTC Fibre to the Curb FTTH Fibre to the Home FTTP Fibre to the Premises GBER General Block Exemption Regulation G.fast fast access to subscriber terminals GPON Gigabit Passive Optical Network HD High Definition IPTV Internet Protocol Television L2 WAP Layer 2 Wholesale Access Product LLU Local Loop Unbundling LTE Long Term Evolution MS Member States NGA Next Generation Access PON Passive Optical Networks 4 BoR (16) 171 VDSL Very High Speed Digital Subscriber Line VOD Video on Demand List of figures Figure 1: Evolution of total NGA coverage and NGA coverage by technology, 2011-2015 .... 8 Figure 2: Total NGA coverage in European countries 2011 vs. mid-2015 ........................... 10 Figure 3: NGA coverage by technology in European countries as of 2014. ......................... 11 Figure 4: NGA coverage provided by cable vs. NGA coverage provided by VDSL/FTTC or FTTP in 2014. ..................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 5: NGA coverage and high speed (at least 30 Mbps) broadband take-up (subscriptions as a percentage of population) mid-2015. .................................................... 15 Figure 6: Relationship between NGA coverage and average broadband prices per month . 17 Figure 7: Relationship between NGA coverage and the percentage of landmass used by cumulative 50 percent of the population .............................................................................. 19 Figure 8: FTTP vs. FTTC/VDSL coverage as of 2014. ........................................................ 22 Figure 9: Evolution of rural NGA coverage, 2011-mid-2015. ............................................... 28 Figure 10: Main regulatory scenarios .................................................................................. 34 Figure 11: Distribution of fixed broadband retail connections by technology in Bulgaria. ..... 53 Figure 12: Distribution of fixed broadband retail connections by speed in Bulgaria. ............ 53 Figure 13: Number of broadband Internet connections in the Republic of Croatia ............... 54 Figure 14: Availability of broadband Internet access via the fixed network in Croatia – NGA (FTTx, VDSL, Docsis 3.0 and other) ................................................................................... 55 Figure 15: Subscribed households by access speed per quarters in Croatia. ...................... 56 Figure 16: Distribution subscribed households by access speed and technology in Croatia.57 Figure 17: Coverage by technology in Cyprus, 2015 ........................................................... 59 Figure 18: Broadband