November 2018 Urban air mobility The rise of a new mode of transportation 2 Roland Berger Focus – Urban air mobility Management summary Driven by increasing urbanization, the worsening bane The winners in this exciting new market will be those of road congestion and new advances in aircraft tech- who address its complex, interdisciplinary needs in nology and electric propulsion, the time is now ripe for close collaboration with manufacturers, infrastructure the emergence of urban air mobility (UAM) – the trans- and service providers and the relevant regulatory and portation of persons or goods via flying vehicles over urban authorities. urban areas – as a new industry. Close to 100,000 pas- senger drones could be in service worldwide by 2050. The pivotal success factor is choosing the right use case from the broad array of aircraft/drone concepts. Each Over time, advances in electric propulsion, autonomous has its own benefits and limitations, and not all tech- flight technology and 5G communication networks will nologies suit all applications. Yet around this central spawn on-demand air taxi services, scheduled airport issue, further success factors will include development shuttles and intercity flights. Urban air mobility adds a of a suitable infrastructure for take-off and landing third dimension to the urban transportation matrix. It spots, maintenance, energy supply and communication, provides an attractive solution for areas where merely the emergence of service providers with robust com- increasing two-dimensional capacity would in no way mercial and operating models, and a regulatory frame- ease the existing traffic situation. It also creates new op- work to control and govern safety, liability, emissions portunities for travelers for whom personal comfort and and a host of other issues. speed are at a premium, as well as for rescue services and para-public applications. Urban air mobility will gradually be integrated in the existing mobility land- scape, bringing a time-efficient mode of travel and a safe, enjoyable flight experience to more and more passengers at increasingly low cost. With flagship pilot projects scheduled to go live in cities such as Dubai, Singapore, Los Angeles and Dallas in the early 2020s, better batteries, new aircraft designs and – as of the late 2020s – autonomous flight technology will bring prices down and spread services to major metropolitan areas around the globe. Urban air mobility – Roland Berger Focus 3 Contents 1. From dream to reality ................................................................................................................. 4 Urban air mobility is poised to become a fast-growing business 2. What form will UAM take in the future? ...................................................................... 9 Three use cases 3. The pivotal success factor ..................................................................................................... 13 Choosing the "right" aircraft 4. It's not just about drones! ...................................................................................................... 15 Other key success factors for the UAM market 5. Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 17 How to implement UAM successfully Cover photo: GCShutter/iStockphoto; Chesky_W/Getty Images Chesky_W/Getty GCShutter/iStockphoto; photo: Cover 4 Roland Berger Focus – Urban air mobility 1. From dream to reality Urban air mobility is poised to become a fast-growing business Urban air mobility (UAM) is an attractive business prop- could then combine with the above cost reductions to osition. Not too far off in the future, what is currently make the urban flight experience available at costs still the exclusive preserve of the ultra-rich – flying over all higher than taxis but much more affordable than today's the traffic jams from one urban location to another – helicopter services. could become common practice. The potential benefits of inner- and intra-city electrical vertical take-off and KEY PROMISE 3 landing (eVTOL) commutes are genuinely appealing SAFE AND ENJOYABLE FLIGHT EXPERIENCE and can be a perfect fit with the needs of customers if Anyone who has ever flown over a city in a helicopter this nascent industry can deliver on five key promises: will have experienced the jaw-dropping excitement and joy such a flight can deliver. The human desire to KEY PROMISE 1 fly is an appeal that should not be underestimated, FASTEST TRAVEL OPTION even though safety is naturally more important and Saving significant amounts of time compared to taxis must be guaranteed at all times. Crucially, passengers and subway lines, for example, would make the use of must also perceive this mode of transport as safe and urban air services highly attractive to passengers. reliable, and a robust regulatory framework will go a Bearing in mind the time taken for boarding/de-board- long way to allaying passengers' fears. In the early stag- ing and actually getting to and from a landing hub, es, for example, flight attendants made available by the eVTOL aircraft need trips to be at least 15 to 25 kilo - flight operator firms could likewise help many people meters in order to deliver genuine time savings and overcome their understandable psychological reserva- become the fastest urban mobility option. If they do tions about autonomous aircraft in particular. The fact achieve this goal, they can bypass (and potentially ease) that electric propulsion will play a part in reducing car- the hassle of congestion, while also streamlining the bon emissions in cities is another issue that will add to poor connections to airports from which many major both the real and perceived attraction of this mode of cities still suffer today. transportation. However, it is not just the technical as- pects that will make flights safe and enjoyable for pas- KEY PROMISE 2 sengers. Particular attention will need to be paid to REASONABLE FARES environmental aspects, such as harsh weather condi- In megacities such as São Paulo and New York, ultra- tions that would make the flight uncomfortable or high-net-worth individuals and top executives already even unsafe. commute by helicopter from the airport to the city center, or between points in the city center. By contrast, KEY PROMISE 4 the switch to electric propulsion and eventually autono- INTEGRATED MOBILITY SOLUTION mous flight operations will slash purchase prices and Attractive eVTOL solutions will dovetail with other local running costs for eVTOL vehicles by an order of magni- mobility services, giving passengers seamless connec- tude, opening up the urban air experience to a much tions from their location to the departure hub and from wider target group. Unmanned flights based on autono- the arrival hub to their final destination. That alone will mous technology will reduce costs still further. Pooling mark a major step forward from the complex, disjointed passengers (e.g. from the airport to the city center) mobility chains we know today. Online booking apps Urban air mobility – Roland Berger Focus 5 A: Passenger drone operations forecast Number of passenger drones in UAM operation worldwide ['000] 98 75 53 28 12 3 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Intercity flights Air taxis Airport shuttles Note: Estimated that ~100 cities will have UAM operations in 2050 Source: Roland Berger will arrange reservations and handle payment for whole uct, gradually morphing into an integrated public journeys (e.g. calling a ride-hailing service to pick up transportation offering over time. and bring the passenger to the eVTOL hub, as well as buying a subway ticket for the last-mile journey at the KEY PROMISE 5 other end). In this way, a vastly superior door-to-door PASSENGER-WINNING SERVICE customer experience will be guaranteed. At the end, the winners will be the ones who create truly Intelligent marketing that educates customers will passenger-winning services. Convenience will be a key nevertheless need to spell out these benefits. That will metric for customer adoption of eVTOL services. For ex- be vital if urban air mobility is indeed to become a fully ample, take-off and landing locations will have to be integrated and widely accepted mode of transportation. strategically positioned at areas of interest and easily Initially, eVTOL will be positioned as a high-end prod- accessible for travelers. This includes the already men- 6 Roland Berger Focus – Urban air mobility tioned connection to other mobility services as well as quick access to landing pads, e.g. with dedicated eleva- tors to rooftop pads. Waiting times also will have to be We will see the kept to a minimum, which would be optimized through intelligent booking and dynamic passenger demand first commercially forecast algorithms. used urban air Aerospace companies and startups alike have joined the race to translate the vision of flying taxis from science mobility routes fiction into reality before 2025. Many of the concepts under development even plan to do so without a pilot on starting in 2025. board. This study examines promising technical concepts and paints a picture of the emerging eVTOL First pilot tests are ecosystem with its stakeholders and key success factors. We also highlight where we see major challenges and expected to start how they can be overcome. A as early as around MARKET POTENTIAL Our research (see "Methodology" on next page), corrob- 2020. orated by numerous interviews