Geographical Dimensions of Risk Management The contribution of spatial planning and Geo-ICT to risk reduction Johannes Martinus Maria Neuvel Thesis committee Thesis supervisors Prof. dr. ir. A. van den Brink Professor of Integrated Area Development in Metropolitan Landscapes Wageningen University Prof. dr. H.J. Scholten Professor of Spatial Informatics VU University Amsterdam Other members Prof. dr. ir. A.K. Bregt, Wageningen University Prof. dr. B.J.M. Ale, Delft University of Technology Prof. dr. W.G.M. Salet, University of Amsterdam Prof. dr. G. Walker, Lancaster University , United Kingdom This research was conducted under the auspices of the Mansholt Graduate School of Social Sciences Geographical Dimensions of Risk Management The contribution of spatial planning and Geo-ICT to risk reduction Johannes Martinus Maria Neuvel Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. dr. M.J. Kropff, in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Doctorate Board to be defended in public on Wednesday 21 October 2009 at 1:30 PM in the Aula. J.M.M. Neuvel Geographical dimensions of risk management. The contribution of spatial planning and Geo-ICT to risk reduction. 224 pages Thesis Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2009) With references, with summaries in Dutch and English ISBN 978-90-8585-450-0 Preface and Acknowledgements Information is regarded as a crucial ingredient for effective risk management. Since a considerable part of the information required for risk management contains specific spatial references (such as the location of toxic clouds or areas prone to flooding), much attention is paid to the development of geo-information and communications technology (Geo-ICT) to support risk management practices. One of the practices that should be supported through Geo-ICT is the management of safety risks in spatial planning. Through spatial planning, for example, vulnerable land use in hazard-prone areas can be regulated or reallocated. The search for an appropriate role for geo-information and the further development of Geo-ICT to support the consideration of safety risks in spatial planning, however, should not start with a specific technology, but with a conception of the way safety risks are addressed and managed in spatial planning practices. This statement is in agreement with Klosterman (2001), who argued that the search for an appropriate role for computer-based information and methods must begin with the conception of the activity that is to be supported. Therefore, this research focuses on spatial planning practices and on the management of safety risks in these practices. The research pro- vides insight into the ways safety risks are dealt with in spatial planning. This infor- mation in turn, is used as a starting point for a discussion about the contribution and further development of Geo-ICT in risk management and spatial planning. I am very grateful for the support I received from many people during this research. Though there is not space to thank them all individually, I would like to mention several people in particular. First of all, I would like to thank my team of supervisors: Adri van den Brink, Henk Scholten and Arnold van der Valk. My daily supervisor, Adri van den Brink, encouraged me to do a PhD and gave me the freedom to explore the world of spatial planning and risk management. Even though he had many duties as a professor, he was always available to help me with anything, any- time, which I greatly appreciated. I am also very happy to have had Henk Scholten and Arnold van der Valk on my team of supervisors. They inspired me with additional perspectives on Geo-ICT and disaster management, and spatial planning and methodology respectively. Many thanks for that! Sisi Zlatanova, Claudia Basta and Wim van der Knaap helped me with my indi- vidual papers and became co-authors on some papers. I believe we demonstrated that writing together not only enriches the content of a research project, but also the way a research project comes about. In addition, I would like to thank the partners involved in the GeoRisk project for all their support during the project, and the Dutch innovation programme Space for Geo-Information (Ruimte voor Geo-Informatie), which funded the research that gave me the opportunity to write this thesis. The experiences from these projects were very useful for developing my ideas about and insights into spatial planning, risk manage- ment and Geo-ICT. Furthermore, I am grateful to Adrie van ‘t Veer, Mariëlle Neuvel and Monique Jansen for their help with the figures and layout, respectively, to the students of the Academic Master Cluster who helped me to examine of the implementation of safety recommendations, to Bart Jan, Corinne and Dries, whose MSc theses gave me addi- tional understanding of risk management and spatial planning, and of course, to all the respondents who generously took time to be interviewed, thereby enabling me to in- crease my understanding of planning practices and Geo-ICT. In addition to these people, who were often directly involved in this research, I would like to thank my colleagues and former colleagues at the Land-use Planning Group: Arjen, Astrid, Barbara, Chris, Fennie, Gerrrit, Gerrit-Jan, Hetty, Irene, Irina, Ilja, Jan, Janneke, Jannie, Jasper, Kristof, Lidy, Marjan, Nanda, Paul, Petra, Raoul, Rinus, Robbert, Roel, Terry, Vanya and Wenbo. We have demonstrated that drinking coffee together to can be both relaxing and very productive and that a PhD research project is not an activity carried out in isolation. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank my family and friends. Even though we are spread out all over the country, we still have great times together. Mom and Dad, I would like to thank you in particular. Many thanks for your continuous support. You encouraged me to follow my heart, which in the end resulted in this thesis. Susan, I also thank you for your support and permanent trust. Jeroen Neuvel Wageningen, July 2009 Contents 1 DEALING WITH SAFETY RISKS IN SPATIAL PLANNING 11 1.1 Risk or danger, decision or destiny? 12 1.2 Risk components 14 1.3 The use of geo-information and Geo-ICT in spatial planning 17 1.4 Spatial planning for risk reduction 20 1.5 Research aims and research questions 21 1.6 Outline of this thesis 22 2 RESEARCH APPROACH 25 2.1 Epistemological position 26 2.2 Research perspectives 28 2.3 Methodology 29 2.4 Case study approach 31 2.5 Using and producing theories 34 2.6 Evaluating research results 37 3 RISK-MAPS INFORMING LAND-USE PLANNING PROCESSES 39 3.1 Introduction 40 3.2. Risk-maps informing planning processes: a comparison between the two examined countries’ practices 42 3.3. Land-use planning and major accidents risk in the Netherlands 43 3.4. Land-use planning and major accidents risk in the UK 49 3.5. Conclusions and discussion 53 4 THE CONSIDERATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN SPATIAL PLANNING PRACTICES 57 4.1. Introduction 58 4.2 Dutch policies on industrial risks and spatial planning 59 4.3. Conceptual framework 63 4.4. Case study approach 66 4.5. Content and implementation of safety recommendations 70 4.6. The role and usefulness of the safety recommendations 73 4.7. Discussion and conclusions 76 5 FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN DUTCH LOCAL SPATIAL PLANNING PRACTICES 81 5.1 Introduction 82 5.2 Dutch flood management policies 83 5.3 Analytical framework 86 5.4 Research method 89 5.5 Established policy practices 92 5.6 Practices to reduce flood consequences 94 5.7 Discussion and conclusions 96 6 A SPATIAL PLANNING PERSPECTIVE FOR MEASURES CONCERNING FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT 101 6.1 Introduction 102 6.2 Spatial planning perspective 103 6.3 Research approach 104 6.4 Case studies 109 6.5 Discussion and conclusions 118 7 INTEGRATED FLOOD MANAGEMENT REQUIRES AN INTEGRATED SPATIAL INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE 121 7.1 Introduction 122 7.2 Conceptualisation of risk and emergency management 123 7.3 Method 126 7.4 Changing Perspectives on Flood Management in the Netherlands 127 7.5 Flood Risk management in the Netherlands 129 7.6 Flood emergency management in the Netherlands 131 7.7 Discussion 135 7.8 Conclusions 140 8 FROM SPATIAL DATA TO SYNCHRONISED ACTIONS 143 8.1 Introduction 144 8.2 Research strategy and method 145 8.3 Risk and emergency management 147 8.4 The added value of geotechnology in NCREM 151 8.5 Towards an architecture for geo-enabled NCREM 153 8.6 Experiences from the Eagle One exercise 158 8.7 Discussion and conclusions 162 9 DISCUSSION 167 9.1 Spatial planning for risk reduction 168 9.2 The contribution, use and further development of Geo-ICT 172 9.3 Suggestions for further research 177 REFERENCES 179 APPENDIX: LIST OF ACTORS INTERVIEWED 199 SUMMARY 201 SAMENVATTING (SUMMARY IN DUTCH) 211 COMPLETED TRAINING AND SUPERVISION PLAN 222 CURRICULUM VITAE 223 1 Dealing with Safety Risks in Spatial Planning Land use or land-use changes can trigger or generate hazards and affect the potential consequences of these hazards. Deforestation can trigger land slides, for example, and land reclamation or levee construction can increase flood hazards downstream. New dwellings in or near forests can trigger wildfires, especially if home owners fail to prioritise fire safety measures. In addition, if land is used for industrial activities, new technological hazards, such as the risks resulting from the storage or production of hazardous materials, can be introduced into the environment. Moreover, land-use changes can increase damage potential. Residential developments in hazard-prone areas, such as areas prone to flooding or earthquakes, can negatively affect the number of properties and people exposed to hazards.