THE JOURNAL OF SIERRA LEONE STUDIES – Volume 2 – Edition 1 – January 2013 Editorial Panel Abdul Bangura, Howard University, John Birchall, Ade Daramy, David Francis, University of Bradford, Lansana Gberie, Dave Harris, School of Oriental and African Studies University of London, Philip Misevich, St John’s University, New York, John Trotman. Dedication I recently made contact with Professor John Hargreaves, who some of you will know was the last Editor of this Journal. He was delighted to hear of its re-appearance and so we have dedicated this edition to John and thank him for his scholarship and dedication to the academic life of Sierra Leone. In this edition Monetary Policy and the Balance of Payments: Econometric Evidence from Sierra Leone - Samuel Braima, Head of Economics Department, Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone and Robert Dauda Korsu, Senior Economist, West African Monetry Agency. Addressing Organised Crime in Sierra Leone: The Role of the Security-Development Nexus - Sacha Jesperson, London School of Economics and Political Science. Book Review A Critique of Epistemologies of African Conflicts: Violence, Evolutionism and the War in Sierra Leone (New York: Palgrave, 2012) - Lans Gberie A new section We are pleased to introduce an end section that focuses on issues that will be of interest to those currently studying Sierra Leone and those who will follow this generation. In this edition we have: The naming of Sierra Leone - Peter Andersen Edward Hyde, Murray Town - pilot in The Battle of Britain. The chase for Bai Bureh - The London Gazette, 29th December, 1899. Peer Reviewed Section In this edition we have included a range of different articles. Within the ‘peer-reviewed’ section we have our first article written by academics working in Sierra Leone, at Fourah Bay College. It focuses on macroeconomics and will be of interest to those working of the development of Sierra Leone MONETARY POLICY AND THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SIERRA LEONE SAMUEL JAMIRU BRAIMA* ROBERT DAUDA KORSU** Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT The objective of the study was to test whether the balance of payments of Sierra Leone is a monetary phenomenon, using aggregate annual data for Sierra Leone from 1970 to 2010. A reserve flow model was estimated. Due to the inherent tendency of non-stationarity of macroeconomic variables and their attendant spurious effects on time series regression estimates, tests for stationarity of the variables were carried out. Given the existence of non- stationarity in the variables, which were however found to be stationary under linear combination ( are cointegrated), an error correction model was estimated. The result shows that the balance of payments of Sierra Leone is a monetary phenomenon, driven by changes in domestic credit, the price level, exchange rate and interest rate. Domestic credit, interest rate and the price level have negative effects on the balance of payments of Sierra Leone while the exchange rate has a positive effect. However, the importance of the price level is felt with a delayed impact. The policy implication of this is that monetary policy operations that are consistent with low and stable inflation, domestic credit restraint and exchange rate depreciation are important for improvement of the balance of payments of Sierra Leone, with low and stable inflation being more useful for medium term objective. 1 *Senior Lecturer & Head, Department of Economics and Commerce, Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone ** Senior Economist, West African Monetary Agency & Associate Lecturer, Department of Economics & Commerce, Fourah Bay College, University of Sierra Leone. 1. INTRODUCTION Both internal and external balances are important to every economy. While internal balance is often and simply considered to be having low and stable inflation as well as sustained economic growth, external balance is about healthy balance of payments, which is a summary account for the external sector. The performance on the external balance of Sierra Leone has been poor since the 1970s, balance of payments problems is persistent. Real GDP of Sierra Leone grew by 2.69 % in the 1970s, in the 1980s it grew by approximately 1.33 % and declined by -4.27 % from 1991 to 2000-the war period- ( See Table 1). Over the period 2001 to 2005 real GDP growth was 6.31 % and it grew by 6.00 % over the period 2006 to 2009. The improvement in the growth of the economy in the post-war period is not surprising since a more politically stable environment is attractive to investors. Inflation rate was 10.82 % in the 1970s, rose to 67.31 % in the 1980s, decreased to only 34.75 % over the period 1991 and 2000. It decreased further to 6.53 % over the period 2001 to 2005 though it increased over the period 2006 to 2009, standing at 10.20 %. The low level of inflation rate recorded over the period 2001-2005 could be attributed to the increase in the growth of real output ( the phenomenon of supply side factor), decrease in monetary growth and the decrease in depreciation of the exchange rate. However, with lower monetary growth over the period 2006- 2009 the rate of inflation was higher in this period than the period 2001-2006. Budget deficit as a ratio of GDP was also lower in this period than the period 2001-2005, suggesting that fiscal control and monetary factors did not play role in higher inflation rates of the 2006-2009 period. Despite the improved economic performance, with increasing real GDP growth and decrease in the rate of inflation in the post-war period (2001 to 2009), the external sector performance was worse than it was from the 1970s to the 1990s. External balance on goods and services was -4.02 % of GDP in the 1970s, improved to -2.89 % in the 1980s though still in deficit, declined to - 2 1.02 % from 1991 to 2000 (the war period) and deteriorated further to -30.23 % from 2001 to 2005 and stood at -24.65 % from 2006-2009. Table 1: Basic Macroeconomic Indicators for the Sierra Leonean Economy 1991-2000 1970-1979 1980-1990 (WAR PERIOD) 2001-2005 2006-2009 *Real GDP Growth (%) 2.69 1.33 -4.27 6.31 6.00 CPI Inflation (%) 10.82 67.31 34.75 6.53 10.20 Export of Goods and Services (% of GDP) 26.67 19.74 20.13 14.13 14.33 Import of Goods and Services (% of GDP) 30.69 22.63 21.16 44.36 38.98 External Balance on Goods and services (% of GDP) -4.02 -2.89 -1.02 -30.23 -24.65 Foreign Reserves, minus gold (Millions of U.S dollars) 39.91 11.48 33.04 99.65 286.92 Net Foreign Assets ( Millions of Leones) 4.93 -11651.32 -273507.20 -211860.64 785659.60 *External Debt (Millions of U.S 863.2 dollars) 210.98 808.31 1330.82 1598.61 *Budget Deficit (% of GDP) 6.34 10.27 10.69 13.44 9.1 M1 Growth 15.32 56.53 27.71 25.02 22.10 M2 Growth 17.14 51.77 29.77 27.31 24.00 Source :* Calculated from World Development Indicators CD-ROM (2010) Calculated from International Financial Statistics CD-ROM (2010) Export of goods and services was 26.67 % of GDP in the 1970s, declined to 19.74% of GDP in the 1980s, further declined to 20.13 % from 1991 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2005 it decreased to 14.13 % resting at 14.33 % over the period 2006-2009. This is a reflection of export performance deteriorating since the 1970s. Import of goods and services as a percentage of GDP was higher than export of goods and services (as a percentage of GDP) for the periods 1970- 1979, 1980-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2005 and 2006-2009. Import of goods and services declined from 30.69 % of GDP in the 1970s to 22.63 % in the 1980s, increased to 21.166 % from 1991 to 2000 and further increased to 44.36 % of GDP from 2001 to 2005 and it was 38.98 % over the period 2006-2009. As expected, the fall in exports and growing imports over the years deteriorated the external balance on goods and services. 3 Foreign reserves which fell from 39.91 millions of U.S dollars in the 1970s to 11.48 millions of U.S dollars in the 1980s rose to 33.04 millions of U.S dollars over the period 1991 to 2000, and further rose to 99.65 millions of U.S dollars from 2001 to 2005. Foreign reserves stood at 286.92 over the period 2006-2009. Net foreign assets which was positive in the 1970s, decreased to negative values over the periods 1980 to 1990, 1991 to 2000 and 2001 to 2005 with the worst case being during the period 1991 to 2000, followed by the period 2001 to 2005 and was positive over the period 2006-2009. External debt was on the increase, until 2007, with the period 2006-2009 recording lower external debt, which is not unconnected to the country's debt forgiveness of 2007. Monetary restraint, which flows from the monetary approach to the balance of payments, is one of the main policy prescriptions given by the IMF. Based on the framework of the monetary approach to the balance of payments, monetary restraint is often recommended among others as a way to address poor performance on the balance of payments of the developing economies. To the extent that most sub-Sahara African economies including Sierra Leone are normally on the poor performance side of the balance of payments, they are often the recipients of this prescription.