The Past, Present, and Future – An In-depth Examination of the Republican Party in the Context of the Political Realignment Theory By Desmond Kuiper 3056023 Dr. D. Fazzi and Dr. J. van den Berk Master’s Thesis – North American Studies 6 August 2018 Kuiper 3056023./I ENGELSE TAAL EN CULTUUR Teacher who will receive this document: Dr. Dario Fazzi Title of document: The Past, Present, and Future – An In-depth Examination of the Republican Party in the Context of the Political Realignment Theory Name of course: Master Thesis: Colloquium and Workshop Date of submission: 6 August 2018 The work submitted here is the sole responsibility of the undersigned, who has neither committed plagiarism nor colluded in its production. Signed Name of student: Desmond Kuiper Student number: 3056023 Kuiper 3056023./II Acknowledgments Writing this thesis has been a truly challenging endeavor, not just academically, but also mentally. During this process, there have been many times that I felt lost and thought that I would never be able to finish this Master’s thesis. However, with the help of many people, I have been able to finish it, and, in the process, learned that it is a good thing to ask for help, to open up, and to share what is going on in my mind. I have also learned to listen to myself, to find a right balance between work and leisure, and that there is more to life than just work. I am very grateful to all the people that have helped me get through this process. Dr. Jorrit van den Berk has been involved in this process for years and I am more than grateful for his endless support, guidance, and invaluable advice, both on an academic level as well as a personal level. I am also grateful to Dr. Dario Fazzi, who became my supervisor in the early days of 2018. He has been truly accommodating, understanding, and helpful. He was instrumental in improving the structure of my thesis and offered me valuable advice. I also want to thank Dr. Markha Valenta, who helped me get through a difficult phase by supporting me and offering helpful advice. Lidwien Cluitmans also deserves my gratitude. She has offered me guidance, structure, and reassured me many times when I thought things would not work out. I also want to thank Prof. Dr. Frank Mehring and the examination board of the Faculty of Arts – Prof. Dr. Hans Bak, Dr. Mathilde Roza, and Dr. Pieter de Haan, among others – for being truly understanding and accommodating. I am grateful to Ruud Storck who has taught me to recognize my pitfalls and offered me invaluable life lessons. He has taught me to think more positively about myself and to start living. Finally, I want to thank my parents and my family for supporting me and being there for me. This process has not been easy for them. I am more than grateful for their endless support and love. Kuiper 3056023./III Table of Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................... IV Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter One – An Analysis of the Theory on Political Realignment ........................................ 5 Chapter Two – The Past: Examining the Development of the Republican Party within a Broader Historical Analysis of Political Realignments from the Pre-New Deal Era to the Twenty-First Century .............................................................................................................. 15 The Pre-New Deal Era .......................................................................................................... 17 The New Deal Majority ........................................................................................................ 19 The 1964 Caesura and the Unravelling of the New Deal Majority ...................................... 24 The Republican Turn ............................................................................................................ 37 The Coming of Age of the Conservative Republican Majority ............................................ 47 The Conservative Republican Majority in the Post-Reagan Era .......................................... 56 Chapter Three – The Present: Dissecting the Coalition of the Contemporary Republican Party ...................................................................................................................... 60 The Moderate Wing of the Republican Party ....................................................................... 75 The Libertarian Wing of the Republican Party ..................................................................... 83 The Neoconservative Wing of the Republican Party ........................................................... 91 The Institutional Wing of the Republican Party ................................................................... 97 The Social Conservative/Evangelical Wing of the Republican Party ................................ 101 Chapter Four – The Future: A Cautious Exploration of the Future of the Republican Party .................................................................................................................... 109 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................. 124 Works Cited ............................................................................................................................ 128 Kuiper 3056023./IV Abstract This Master’s thesis will provide an in-depth examination of the Republican Party by focusing on three distinct aspects – the past, the present, and the future. The political realignment theory will form the theoretical framework in this thesis because it serves as a useful tool for examining and thinking about the Republican Party, party coalitions, and American political history in general. Chapter two – the past – provides a historical analysis of the Republican Party from roughly 1900 until the early twenty-first century in the context of the realignment theory, and it will be argued that the roots of the present-day coalition of the party can be traced back to the 1960s when Barry Goldwater captured the Republican presidential nomination. Chapter three – the present – dives into the different factions of the Republican Party. Although most factional models that have been put forth in academia and journalism show some similarities, there is no universal consensus on the factional makeup of the GOP. Because of the lack of agreement, I present my own factional model of the party in chapter three. Instead of merely focusing on voting blocs and constituencies, it will be argued that it is equally important to take into account other groups/actors in the party that do not have a natural constituency, but still, through other means, exert a significant amount of influence on the party. Chapter four – the future – will explore the potential future of the party by looking at different aspects and arguments such as the realignment theory and the changing demographic nature of the United States. Key words: Political realignment, majority coalitions, ‘sun’ and ‘moon’ analogy, Republican Party, Democratic Party, conservatism, New Deal, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan, Sunbelt, institutionalists, libertarians, evangelicals, neoconservatives, moderates. Kuiper 3056023./1 Introduction From a distance America’s political party system seems fairly structured and easy to grasp. The United States has a two-party system in which there is a party on the Left – the Democratic Party – and a party on the Right of the political spectrum – the Republican Party. While Democrats generally see a role for government to play in regulating the excesses of capitalism, Republicans for the most part believe that the regulatory role of government in the nation’s economy should be limited in order to, among other things, incentivize entrepreneurs to make investments and create jobs. The differences between the two parties are equally pronounced on matters of social issues. When it comes to the major social wedge issues in the United States, Democrats are typically more supportive of same-sex marriage, abortion rights, and legalizing soft drugs, while Republicans commonly hold opposite views on those issues. Now, these observations might create the perception that both parties are unified and homogenous organizations – one party on the Left and one party on the Right – but when one digs deeper it becomes clear that both parties are far from unified and homogenous organizations. In fact, it is precisely because of the two-party system that makes the country’s political party system challenging to understand and comprehend. Granted, there are other political parties in addition to the two major parties, but these so-called third parties, such as the Green Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Reform Party, are relatively small and often operate within the margins of the country’s political system. Because there are only two major political parties in the United States, each party functions as a big tent in the sense that they harbor a broad coalition of individuals and groups that share a commitment to conservative or liberal political ideology. This width and broadness within each party, however, also frequently causes tensions because the various groups are not always on the same page in terms of policies and strategy. Frictions and tensions within political parties in general