CHAILLOT PAPER / PAPER CHAILLOT 159 RUSSIAN FUTURES 2030 RUSSIAN FUTURES 2030 The shape of things to come Edited by Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru | THE SHAPE OF THINGS TO COME TO THINGS THE SHAPE OF With contributions from Marcin Kaczmarski, Janis Kluge, András Rácz, Tatiana Stanovaya and Andrew Wilson CHAILLOT PAPER / 159 August 2020 European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) 100, avenue de Suffren 75015 Paris http://www.iss.europa.eu Director: Gustav Lindstrom © EU Institute for Security Studies, 2020. Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union. print ISBN 978-92-9198-964-5 online ISBN 978-92-9198-965-2 CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-003-EN-C CATALOGUE NUMBER QN-AA-20-003-EN-N ISSN 1017-7566 ISSN 1683-4917 DOI 10.2815/436970 DOI 10.2815/880622 Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Belgium by Bietlot. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2020. Cover image credit: Peter Usher/unsplash RUSSIAN FUTURES 2030 The shape of things to come Edited by Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru With contributions from Marcin Kaczmarski, Janis Kluge, András Rácz, Tatiana Stanovaya and Andrew Wilson CHAILLOT PAPER / 159 August 2020 The editors Sinikukka Saari is a Senior Associate Analyst and Stanislav Secrieru is a Senior Analyst at the EUISS. Their area of expertise focuses on EU-Russia relations, Russia’s foreign and se- curity policy, Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The EUISS Chaillot Paper series The Chaillot Paper series, launched in 1991, takes its name from the Chaillot hill in the Trocadéro area of Paris, where the Institute’s first premises were located in the building oc- cupied by the Western European Union (WEU). The hill is particularly known for the Palais de Chaillot which was the site of the signing of the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948, and housed NATO’s provisional head- quarters from 1952 until 1959. 1 CONTENTS Executive summary 2 Introduction 3 Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru CHAPTER 1 CHAPTER 4 Global trends in the Russian context 5 Russia’s military power 56 The interplay that will shape the decade ahead Fast and furious – or failing? Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru András Rácz CHAPTER 2 CHAPTER 5 The Russian state and society at a crossroads 26 Russia and its post-Soviet ‘frenemies’ 69 The twilight zone Breaking free from the post-Soviet time loop? Tatiana Stanovaya Andrew Wilson CHAPTER 3 CHAPTER 6 Russia’s economy 43 The future of Chinese-Russian relations 85 From dusk till dawn? The next round of Go Janis Kluge Marcin Kaczmarski Conclusions 97 Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru Abbreviations 101 Notes on the contributors 102 2 Russian Futures 2030 | The shape of things to come EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Chaillot Paper looks at Russia on the horizon In the next chapter, Janis Kluge argues that the of 2030. It offers analytical insights into the twists Russian economy has been surprisingly resilient and turns that may characterise the country’s path but shows this may not be the case during the next in the upcoming decade, and explores how a num- ten years. A decade is not enough to completely ber of critical uncertainties may have a signifi- change the basis of an economy but in that time cant impact on Russia’s future trajectory. These a course towards a more market-driven or more key uncertainties work as ‘catalysts’ that may state-dominated and securitised economic system speed up the pace and alter the direction of change will certainly be set. Furthermore, the quality of in Russia. future decision-makers and governance will play a crucial role in determining Russia’s economic The global megatrends which are the focus of the competitiveness – and performance. opening chapter in this volume set the broader context of Russian futures. The Russian leaders of The Russian military is likely to continue to play tomorrow – whoever they may be – are likely to an important role during the next decade. An- attempt to take maximum advantage of the crisis drás Rácz shows that while military engagement of Western liberalism and the shifting global or- abroad will still be used by the Kremlin as part of der, and try to shape the digital revolution in Rus- its strategy to assert its claim to great power sta- sia in such a way as to reinforce the authoritarian tus, the nature and intensity of Russia’s military political system. On the other hand, the domestic engagements may change in a variety of ways; status quo will be challenged indirectly by societal these changes are likely to reflect the degree of and media fragmentation as well as by the ongo- actual and perceived success as well as shifting ing global energy transition which is set to put in budgetary resources. question the viability of Russia’s extractive eco- nomic model. In the fifth and sixth chapters, Andrew Wilson and Marcin Kaczmarski examine Russia’s re- The following chapters focus on five distinct di- lations with the Eastern Partnership states and mensions of Russia’s future domestic and foreign China respectively. Russian foreign policy will be policy: Russian state-society relations; economic dependent on the wider context of global com- development; Russia’s military power; Russia’s petition and transforming alliances as well as on relations with the post-Soviet neighbours; and its decisions and developments in these countries relationship with China. themselves. In particular, in Eastern Europe there are many contradictory and competing drivers at The central premise of Tatiana Stanovaya’s chap- play, which suggests some turbulent times ahead. ter on the Russian state and society at a crossroads Russia’s strategic partnership with China bene- is that the Russia of today may seem stagnant on fits the country in many ways but in the future its the surface but underneath the ground is shift- economic and political dependency on China could ing. Latent but widespread discontent might erupt turn into a critical vulnerability. in intra-elite infighting and fragmentation. The chapter points towards fundamental contradic- The insights into Russian futures contained in this tions in the Putin-driven system; on the one hand volume will hopefully guide Russia watchers – and Putin plays an essential role in the current political the policymakers of today and tomorrow – as they order, of which he is the architect and personifi- start preparing for the risks as well as the openings cation, but on the other hand he is increasingly that lie ahead. withdrawn from the day-to-day governance of the country, and this may lead to strife in the future. Introduction 3 INTRODUCTION by SINIKUKKA SAARI AND STANISLAV SECRIERU* ‘The only certain thing about the future is that it nicely the essence of foresight. Strategic fore- will surprise even those who have seen furthest sight is not about forecasting or making exact into it.’1 predictions about future events but, rather, it is about building our capacity to deal with fu- The historian Eric Hobsbawm ended his semi- ture surprises. While there is no way of knowing nal work The Age of Empire with a sentence that exactly what kinds of political decisions future many might assume to be discouraging for re- leaders will make – nor, indeed, who those searchers engaged in foresight. However, this leaders will be – it is nevertheless possible to maxim has served as an inspiration for this identify and analyse the critical uncertainties Chaillot Paper: it is taken as an encouragement related to future developments, and pinpoint to avoid the trap of the conventional extrapo- the variation between potential futures that lation of current developments and trends, and those drivers of change enable. instead to combine structural analysis with the power of imagination to produce a series of The point of this publication is not to predict if plausible future scenarios for Russia in 2030. Putin will be replaced and by whom in 2024 or The contributors to this collective volume have some other date – in fact the scenarios in this aimed to see as far as possible into the future Chaillot Paper include eight possible outcomes by analysing the available data on changes tak- to this question. The emphasis of this publi- ing place in Russia, but they have also invoked cation is on more fundamental and long-term ‘wild card’ elements of surprise and weaved uncertainties that will matter regardless of them into the analysis. The element of surprise whether Putin remains in power or not. This is particularly important in a country like Rus- is what this publication is all about: scanning sia whose leadership has dedicated much effort the horizon, identifying the key uncertainties and resources to eliminating factors of con- and preparing for the surprises that the future tingency and unpredictability internally, yet holds in store. that attempts to leverage effects of surprise in the foreign and security policy arena. Further- The complexity and the number of social sci- more, as the history of Russia would suggest, entific variables should not be underestimated, attempts to stonewall change may eventually however. For instance, back in 2010 several an- lead to even more dramatic – and often violent alysts were pointing out – and rightly so – that – surprises. Russia’s leadership would very likely be unable to carry out significant reforms and diversify In fact, not only did Hobsbawm’s reflection the resource-dependent economy, which led guide this research – it also summarises rather the analysts to predict some kind of political * The authors are grateful to Karol Luczka for his invaluable assistance in carrying out the research for this publication.