Report No. Q2821LAC S. 54":: GC COPING Public Disclosure Authorized Cck\HAC~~C-A ,hl _ \ _______________ X__ _ . WITH CHANGES INTH 5* -55~EXTERNAL Public Disclosure Authorized E~NVIRONMEN.T ~~~ ~~~~~ ~MICROGRAPHICS Public Disclosure Authorized Report No: 12821 LAO - ~~Type:SEC WorldBank -Caribbean Division ~~~~~ ~~~~Country DepartmentIll -Latin Americaand the Caribbean Public Disclosure Authorized Coping With Changes In The ExternalEnvironment May 1994 World Bank Caribbean Division CountryDepartment III LatfnAmerica and the Caribbean Glossary Of Abbreviations ACP Afncar,Carlbbear. and HFCS HighFructose Com Padfic Syrup BMP BladcMaiket Prenium HFII HarmoruzedFiscal CARIBCAN Canada'sPreferential Incentivesto Industry TradeScheme for IBRD IntermationalBank for the Commorwvealth ReconstnrtionarKi Caribbean Development CARICOM CaribbeanCommurnty LDCs LessDeveloped Counttie* Secretariat MDCs MoreDeveloped Countiies CBI CadbbeanBasin Initative MFA Multi-FiberAgreement CET CommonExtemal Tariff MFN MostFavored Nation CDEs ConditionalDuty NAFrA NorthAmerican Free BEemptions TradeAgreement CGCED CaribbeanGroup for NRP NominalRate of Protection Cooperationin NTBs Non-TariffBarriers EconomicDevelopment OECD Organizationfor CaF Cost Insurance,and Freight EconorrmcCooperation DFI DirectForeign Investrent and Development EAI Enterprisefor the OECS Organizationof Eastem AmericasInitiative CaribbeanStates EC EuropeanCommunity OFA Oils andFats Agreement ECCB EasternCaribbean Central Bank PSIP PublicSector Investment ECCM EasternCaribbean Program Common Market REER RealEffective Exchange Rate ECDolar EasternCaribbean Dollar RIA RegionalIntegration ECO ExtendedCofinancing Operation Arrangements EFTA EuropeanFree TradeArea SMART Softwarefor MarketAnalysis EPZ ExportProcessing Zone and Restrctionson Trade ERP EffectiveRate of SOE State-OwnedEnterprises Protection UK United Kingdom EU EuropeanUnion UNCTAD United NationsConference FOB Freighton Board on Trade and Development GATr UN General Agreement US. United States of America on Trade and Tariffs USAID United StatesAgeny GDP Gross Domestc Product for International GNP Gross NationalProduct Development GSP General Systemof VA ValueAdded Preferences VAT ValueAdded Tax uli Adcaowegements Thisreport wa oreparedby a team led by JoseB. Sokoland conpdlsingFrank Earwaker, F. DesmondMcCarthy, 'lohn D. Nash and AlexanderJ. Yeats. Uaqat AJ, Cados Braga,Badnrl Haque,and AlasdairSindair made major oontibutions.Amnod Mdntyre from the Organization of EastemCanibbean States Secietanat provided valuable comments on the diapteron trade poicy. Sir Aister Mdntyre,ViceChanoellor of the Uriversityof the West Indies,and Vinod Thomas,Chief Economist of the EastAsia ReWorn The Wodd Bank made importantsuggestons. MichaelLewin, Dan Morrow,Raj Nallar,Axel Peuker, Carmen Scoseria,and Steve Webb contuibutedto the preparationof AnnexL Theteam was assistedby JenniferKeUier, Frands Ng, GingerReid, Geeta Sethi,and GiovanriZanalda. The supportstaff induded Hazel Vargas, DeborahTent, MelissaWiUiarrs, and MibgrosDivino. The layoutof the finishedvdume was done by WendelineDe Zam. v Preface Evetytwo yearsthe Wodd Bankprepares a reportfor the meetingof the CaribbeanGroup for Cooperationin EconomicDevelopment (CGCED). The reports objective is to focusattention on the perfomance,problemS needs, prospects and poliaes required by thefifteen Caribbean countries which arememb of boththe COCED and the World Banlc Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize,Dornirica, Dominican Republc, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St Klttsand Nevis, St Luaa, SLVincent and the Grenadines, Sunindme, and Trnrdad and Tobago. The1992 report focused on efforts needed to acceleratethe implementation of the reform age- In.iite Canbbeancountries during the rest of the1990s. It alsoexamined the flow of resourcesto thecountres since1978 and related it to theprocess of adjustmentand growth during this period It evaluatedthe stockof humanresources in the countries, indicated the inddence of poverty,assessed the positive and negativefactors affecting human resource development in the Region,discussed policy options, and highlightedthe human resource development issues for the1990s. Finally, it descibedthe ecosystems in the countriesand Identifiedthe linkagesbetween economic activity and environmentalprotection, identifiedcauses of environmentaldegradation, assessed the impactof suchdeterioration on the countries'development, discussed policy options, and pointed to theenvironmental issues for the1990s. The1992 report Identified three factors - worldand regional trade liberahzatioi, integration of world capitalmovements, and slowing wodd growth - whichare not only increasing the competitive pressures theCaribbean economies face but which can also become serious deterrents to growth It alsobrought out the difficultoudook for the 1990s- the possibilitiesof adverseextemal shocks, the scardtyof traditionalsources of extenal finandng, and the erosion of the countsies' preferential trade arrangements. Tis reportdiscusses in detail the impact of globaltrading trends and what the Caribbean countiies must do to preparethemselves for thetransition to thenew environment It is oneof threereports prepared for the June1994 CGCED meetings, the othertwo beingCaribbean Countries Polices for PrivateSector Developmert(Report No. 126174.AC) and EconomkPoliaes for Tansitionin theOrganization of Eastern CaribeanStates (Report No. 12758.LAC).Together, they provide a visionfor the Caribbeanfor the futre CarbbeanCountris: Policiesfor PrivateSector Devlopmert is an in.depthecamination of the legislative,fiscal and regulatory framework in placein theRegion, and of the reforms that are reqN red to positionthe Regionto take advantageof privatesector development,especially in toudsm and in a multitudeof viable servicesector activities. EconornicPolicies for Trnion in theOrganization of Eastemn CaribbeanStates discusses the transitionfor the OECScountries from a worldof protectedmalicet acoess for keyproducts and largeconcessionary aid flowsfrom bilateral donors to a worldwhich is goingto be muchmore conpetitiveand marketoriented. Chapter1 providesan overviewof overalldevelopments affecting the Canbbeancountries over the past 17 years as wel as progressachieved during this period Thsdcapter also providesa perspectiveof global economicchanges which create pressuresupon the Caribbeancountries to become more cornpetiiveas theireconomies are undergoinga state of transitionm Chapter2 discussesthe imporance of quantityand qualityof factorsof productionin the Caribbean countries'growth experience and of thosefactors that couldcontri,bute to futuregrowth. It alsoanalyzes how rapidchanges in the extemalernironment have impactedon the Caribbeaneconomies and draws lessonson howto best addressthem in the future. Chapter3 examinesthe variousfactors that determinethe externalcapital requirements of the Caribbean countries.It reviewsrecent trends in finandngthose capital requirements and assessesfutute financing prospectsin the lightof majordcanges that are takingplace in the intemationalfinandal markets and in Vi the provsionof offidal developmentassistance. A strategyIs proposedfor the Carbbeancounties to managetheir extemalcapital requrementsand to structurea finandngplan that is to their best advantage Chapter4 evaluatesrecent and planneddianges regarding trade reform in thnCanibben~untries, evaluatestheir Impad, ecamdnes rernaining policy constraints to expandingtrade within andoutide the Region,and lays out anagenda for futurerefonms Chapter5 assessesdte magnitudesand potentialeffects of NAFTAand the UruguayRound on the CafbbeancountijeL TrendsIn Caribbeanexports are examinedto determinehow NAFrA and the UruguayRound coxdd affect the leveland compositionof Caribbeanmerchandise trade. The tyes of productsthat playeda centralrole in danng the recentstructure of Caribbeanmerchandise expors are analyzedand the evolutionof the Region'scomparative advantage Is considered Projecffonsare thenmade of the possibleCauibbean expon gains and losses due to NAFrAand the Unrgua Round. Chapter6 attemptsto assessprospects for bananasand sugar in thelight of thechanging environment In woddtrade in whichexisting preferential market arrangements will eitherdiminish their bertefits or may be phased out The Country Profiles induded in Annex I highlightcounjyspeafic policy issues, project pfiofties, credtworthinessand the BankGroup's lendingprogram vi4i Contents GtOSSARYOF ABBREVIATIONS iii PREFACE vii SUMMARYAND CONCLUSIONS S 1. INTlRODUCIION 1 2. 7HECARIBBEAN EXPERIENCE WIIH GROWnI AND EX1ERNALSHOCKS 7 Sourcesof Growth 7 ExtemalShodcs 16 3. CAPITALREQUIREMENIS AND SOURCESOF FINANCE 29 Determiningthe Needfor ExtemalFmiance 29 TheManagement of ExtemalFinandng Requirements 38 4. 1RADEPOUCY IN THECARIBBEAN COUNIRIES 55 sCurrentTrade Polides and Recent Developmentsin the CarbbeanCountiies 55 impactof Recentand Planned Reforms 73 5. PROSPECISFOR CARIBBEAN EXPORTS IN MAJOROECD MARKEIS 85 MajorTrends in CaribbeanExports 85 DynamnicProducts in CaribbeanExports 87 The UruguayRound: Implcatons for the Canibbean 89 NontariffMeasures Fadng Caribbean Exports 92 The Influenceof NAFTAon CaribbeanExports 94 6. EXPORTPROSPECIS FOR CARIBBEAN COUN' RIES PRODUaNG BANANAS AND SUGAR 117 Bananas 117 Sugar 128 ANNEX1 COUNTRYPROFILES 135 ANNEX2 EXTERNALFINANCING REQUIREMENTS FOR THE PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM 167 ANNEX3 INVESTMENTS,SAVINGS AND CROSSECONOMY ESTIMATES OF SOURCESOF GROWTH 173 ANNEX4 EXTERNALSHOCKS AND PERFORMANCEMEASURES