NYSERDA: Offshore Wind Climate Adaptation and Resilience Study Final Report | Report Number 21-04 | February 2021 NYSERDA’s Promise to New Yorkers: NYSERDA provides resources, expertise, and objective information so New Yorkers can make confident, informed energy decisions. Our Vision: New York is a global climate leader building a healthier future with thriving communities; homes and businesses powered by clean energy; and economic opportunities accessible to all New Yorkers. Our Mission: Advance clean energy innovation and investments to combat climate change, improving the health, resiliency, and prosperity of New Yorkers and delivering benefits equitably to all. Cover Image: Shutterstock NYSERDA: Offshore Wind Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Study Final Report Prepared for: New York State Energy Research and Development Authority Albany, NY Adrienne Downey Principal Engineer Prepared by: ICF International, Inc. Fairfax, VA 22031 Neil Weisenfeld Senior Energy Resilience Expert Brenda Dix Senior Managing Consultant Mason Fried Managing Consultant, Climate Scientist Garrett Moran Wind Generation Senior Manager Claire Phillips Climate Resilience Researcher Matia Whiting Climate Resilience Researcher NYSERDA Report 21-04 NYSERDA Contract 123055 February 2021 Notice This report was prepared by ICF International, Inc. in the course of performing work contracted for and sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (hereafter “NYSERDA”). The opinions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect those of NYSERDA or the State of New York, and reference to any specific product, service, process, or method does not constitute an implied or expressed recommendation or endorsement of it. Further, NYSERDA, the State of New York, and the contractor make no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, as to the fitness for particular purpose or merchantability of any product, apparatus, or service, or the usefulness, completeness, or accuracy of any processes, methods, or other information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. NYSERDA, the State of New York, and the contractor make no representation that the use of any product, apparatus, process, method, or other information will not infringe privately owned rights and will assume no liability for any loss, injury, or damage resulting from, or occurring in connection with, the use of information contained, described, disclosed, or referred to in this report. NYSERDA makes every effort to provide accurate information about copyright owners and related matters in the reports we publish. Contractors are responsible for determining and satisfying copyright or other use restrictions regarding the content of reports that they write, in compliance with NYSERDA’s policies and federal law. If you are the copyright owner and believe a NYSERDA report has not properly attributed your work to you or has used it without permission, please email [email protected] Information contained in this document, such as web page addresses, are current at the time of publication. Preferred Citation New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA). 2021. “Offshore Wind Climate Adaptation and Resiliency Study,” NYSERDA Report Number 21-04. Prepared by ICF International, Inc., Fairfax, VA. nyserda.ny.gov/publications ii Abstract New York State will increasingly face challenges from a rapidly changing climate in the years ahead and is undertaking comprehensive climate action to mitigate the impacts of and increase resiliency to climate change. Offshore wind (OSW) represents a critical component in achieving the State objective of achieving a 100% clean electricity portfolio by 2040. While OSW farms are already designed to withstand many climate hazards, climate change has the potential to stretch design and operational limits, exposing equipment to potentially harsher and more variable conditions than anticipated under conventional design paradigms. Work accomplished under this NYSERDA project aggregated, refined, and distilled climate adaptation and resiliency considerations that pertain to offshore wind for New York State and in the broader North Eastern Atlantic region of the United States. The report identifies climate factors that are meaningful to OSW operations and reliability and examines the range of options to build resilience to climate change, including revisions to planning and design processes, technology solutions, and improvements to operational strategies. Keywords offshore wind resilience, wind turbine resilience, OSW, offshore wind resilience, climate change Table of Contents Notice .........................................................................................................................................ii Preferred Citation ......................................................................................................................ii Abstract ....................................................................................................................................iii Keywords ..................................................................................................................................iii List of Figures ..........................................................................................................................vi List of Tables ...........................................................................................................................vii Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................vii Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ES -1 1 Introduction: Climate Considerations for Offshore Wind Systems ................................1 iii 1.1 Offshore Wind Systems ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Offshore Wind and Climate Considerations .............................................................................. 3 1.2.1 Overview of Key Relevant Climate Factors ....................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Basics of Wind Turbine Operation ..................................................................................... 4 1.2.3 International Wind Turbine Design Standards ................................................................... 6 1.2.4 Climate Factors Impacting Offshore Wind Performance .................................................... 7 1.2.4.1 Wind: Velocity, Shear, Turbulence, Direction, Geographic Distribution, Temperature, and Moisture ....................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2.4.2 Wind Velocity (Including Frequency Distribution and Variation) ......................................... 8 1.2.4.3 Wind Direction .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2.4.4 Turbulence Intensity ....................................................................................................... 10 1.2.4.5 Wind Shear .................................................................................................................... 10 1.2.4.6 Wind Geographic Distribution ......................................................................................... 12 1.2.4.7 Air Temperature ............................................................................................................. 12 1.2.4.8 Air Moisture .................................................................................................................... 12 1.2.5 Climate Factors Impacting Offshore Wind System Reliability ........................................... 13 1.2.5.1 High Winds above Operating Limits ................................................................................ 13 1.2.5.2 Ocean Waves ................................................................................................................. 13 1.2.5.3 Precipitation ................................................................................................................... 15 1.2.5.4 Sea Level Rise ............................................................................................................... 15 1.2.5.5 Ice and Frozen Precipitation ........................................................................................... 16 1.2.5.6 Extreme Storms.............................................................................................................. 16 1.2.6 Onshore Electrical Infrastructure ..................................................................................... 17 1.2.7 Coastal Infrastructure and Ports ...................................................................................... 17 1.2.8 Human Stressors ............................................................................................................ 18 1.2.8.1 Hacking .......................................................................................................................... 18 1.2.8.2 Vandalism and Terrorism ................................................................................................ 19 1.2.9 Project Financing ............................................................................................................ 20 2 Projected Changes to Climate Factors and Potential