Coastal Community Resilience Assessment Framework of Maritime Disasters Management for Saudi Arabia By Arif Talaq Almutairi Supervised by: Prof. Monjur Mourshed Prof Yacine Rezui Cardiff School of Engineering Cardiff University Cardiff, Wales, United Kingdom May 2019 Thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) DECLARATION This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed............. ................. (Candidate) Date.... 26/03/2019…….... Statement 1 This thesis being submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of PhD. Signed.......... .................... (Candidate) Date...... 26/03/2019................. Statement 2 This thesis is the result of my own independent work/investigation, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by explicit references. Signed.............................. (Candidate) Date.... 26/03/2019................. Statement 3 I hereby give consent for my thesis, if accepted, to be available for photocopying and for interlibrary loan, and for the title and summary to be made available to outside organisations. Signed........ ...................... (Candidate) Date... 26/03/2019................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to express my deep and sincere gratitude to almighty God for giving my energy, time and strength to meet this degree. I would also like to thank my supervisor, Prof Monjur Mourshed, for his delicate and great leadership, support during my study. His expertise and supervision have been of great value for me. I am also grateful to my co-supervisor, Prof. Yacine Rezgui, for his valuable advice and views. Without support from both supervisors, this thesis would not have evolved as it has. I owe my thanks to my colleagues and all other staff of Cardiff School of Engineering for organizing many important courses and lecturers that of course were so instrumental in my PhD progress. My appreciation goes to staff in the research office of engineering school (Aderyn Reid, Chris Lee, and Jeanette Whyte) who continuously supported research students. I wish to extend my gratitude to the panel of experts for taking part in the Delphi survey and AHP, which allow me to meet the main objectives of this study. Their contributions, time, and the effort were of a great assistance for me to carry out the fieldwork, which made this study possible. I am also grateful to my sponsor, Saudi Arabia Government for giving me this great opportunity to pursue my PhD degree with full financial support. As well as the cooperation by the staff of the Saudi cultural bureau - London. I wish I could give individual acknowledgment to all those who have contributed in my work. However, this is would be a tall order, but I am truly grateful to all those who have directly participated in this mission. Especial thanks go to my mother, Norah, my brothers, and my sisters for their support, prayers and love during my study. The blessings of my late grandmother, Rabha, I miss you and thank you for all the advice and great memories. Last but not the least; I would like to thank my beloved wife who has supported me throughout the research period and my children. I would like to express my warm thanks to them all; without their support and encouragement, this thesis would not have been accomplished. ii LIST OF PUBLICATIONS Journals (under review): • The paper entitled ‘‘Maritime Disasters in Saudi Arabia: Risks and Vulnerabilities” (Under review)- Urban science - MDPI Journal. • The paper entitled ‘‘A Review of Coastal Community Resilience Frameworks for Disaster Management” (Under review)-Natural Hazards - Springer Journal. • The paper entitled ‘‘Stakeholder perception of coastal community resilience to maritime disasters” To be submitted to Sustainable Cities and Society- Elsevier Journal. • The paper entitled ‘‘Identification of Coastal Community Resilience Assessment Factors to Maritime Disasters (The Delphi Technique Consultation)” To be submitted to sustainability- MDPI. Conference paper: • ALMUTAIRI, A., MOURSHED, M. 2016. A review and classification of maritime disasters occurring in the surroundings of Saudi Arabia's coastline. ECSA 56 - Coastal Systems in Transition: From a 'natural' to an 'anthropogenically-modified' state. Bremen, Germany. • ALMUTAIRI, A., MOURSHED, M. 2018. A Review Maritime Disasters: The Case of Saudi Arabia. ICDEM 2018: 20th International Conference on Disaster and Emergency Management. Rome, Italy iii ABSTRACT Saudi Arabia, the largest country in the Arabian Peninsula, is home to 33 million people, 50% of whom live within 100 km of the coastline. Due to its geographical location, bathymetric and tectonic profiles, and exposure to vulnerabilities along petroleum export routes, the country faces increasing risks from both natural and human-induced maritime disasters, especially along the coastlines where significant centres of economic activities are located. Limited studies on coastal resilience in the region and the lack of effective disaster risk management in the country inspired this research to identify maritime disaster risks and impacts and develop a structured framework to assess coastal community resilience through stakeholder consultations. The work was accomplished in the following five stages. First, a systematic literature review identified potential maritime disaster risks at present and in the future. Three types of risks to natural disasters are found: local tsunamis in the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf due to the movements of the Arabian tectonic plate; cyclones and tsunamis originating in the Indian Ocean; and the projected sea level rise and associated impacts because of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, as the top oil-producing country, the Saudi economy relies on oil export routes, which are prone to human-induced maritime disasters such as oil spills, piracy and terrorism. The review of disaster risk assessment and resilience frameworks revealed that most focused primarily on governance and infrastructure, and their development did not adequately consider stakeholders' views. The review also found gaps in policies and response to disaster risks, some of which were specific to the unique socio-cultural context of Saudi Arabia. Stage two entailed an assessment of stakeholders’ perceptions of the previously identified factors of resilience to maritime disasters. Demographic differences in perception were investigated using principal component analysis. Identified factors were examined by a panel of experts using the Delphi technique in stage three. Two rounds of Delphi consultation helped refine the identified factors further and obtain experts' consensus on their relevance for assessing resilience. The outcome was a three-level framework with constituent indicators, split into four interrelated dimensions: infrastructure, society and economy, environment and climate change, and government and institutions. In stage four, analytic hierarchy process was used to assign a level of importance to each group of indicators using pair-wise comparisons. Weights were computed to enable the aggregation of scores from indicators and dimensions into an overall figure. In the final stage, the resulting Coastal Community Resilience to Maritime Disasters (CCRMD) was validated by comparing it to three well-established frameworks (LDRI, CDRI 3 and CRDSA) that were employed in similar contexts and, by engaging iv the experts to verify the relevance, implementation and adaptation of the framework in Saudi Arabia. This research developed a framework for assessing coastal community resilience to maritime disasters, which is comprehensive in terms of its constituent criteria and is more contextual than previous works because of the structured engagement with stakeholders in each development stage. As a regional first, the framework is a step forward in the development of well-managed and established protocols and policies governing the management of risks of maritime disasters in Saudi Arabia and potentially the Gulf. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................... ii LIST OF PUBLICATIONS .................................................................................. iii ABSTRACT........................................................................................................ iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................ ix LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................... x Chapter 1 Introduction ........................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research problem ............................................................................................... 4 1.3 Aims and objectives ............................................................................................ 5 1.4 Research questions ............................................................................................ 6 1.5 Research plan ....................................................................................................