Methodology GLOBAL ESTIMATES OF MODERN SLAVERY: FORCED LABOUR AND FORCED MARRIAGE In partnership with Methodology of the global estimates of modern slavery: Forced labour and forced marriage GENEVA, 2017 Copyright © International Labour Organization and Walk Free Foundation, 2017 First published 2017 This is an open access work distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 IGO License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo/). Users can reuse, share, adapt and build upon the original work non-commercially, as detailed in the License. The International Labour Office (ILO), Walk Free Foundation and International Organization for Migration (IOM) must be clearly credited as the joint owners of the original work. The use of the emblem of the ILO, Walk Free Foundation and IOM is not permitted in connection with users’ work. 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All queries on rights and licensing should be addressed to ILO Publications (Rights and Licensing), CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland, or by email to [email protected]. Methodology of the global estimates of modern slavery: Forced labour and forced marriage International Labour Office (ILO), Geneva, 2017 ISBN: 978-92-2-130136-3 (print) ISBN: 978-92-2-130137-0 (web pdf) Also available in French: Méthodologie des estimations mondiales de l’esclavage moderne: travail forcé et mariage forcé, ISBN 978-92-2-230935-1 (print); ISBN 978-92-2-230936-8 (web pdf), ILO, Geneva, 2017; and in Spanish: Metodología de las estimaciones mundiales sobre la esclavitud moderna: Trabajo forzoso y matrimonio forzoso, ISBN 978-92-2-331041-7 (print); ISBN 978-92-2-331042-4 (web pdf), ILO, Geneva, 2017. The designations employed in this publication, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office or the International Organization for Migration concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office or the International Organization for Migration of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office or the International Organization for Migration, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. Information on ILO publications and digital products can be found at: www.ilo.org/publns. Funding for ILO’s work on the 2016 Global Estimates of Modern Slavery leading to this report was provided by the United States Department of Labor under Cooperative Agreement numbers GLO/10/55/USA and GLO/11/11/USA. This report does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United States Department of Labor, nor does mention of trade names, commercial products, or organizations imply endorsement by the United States Government. 4 Methodology of the global estimates of modern slavery: Forced labour and forced marriage Acknowledgements This report was jointly written by the University and University of California/ ILO’s Fundamental Principles and Rights Berkeley), Pablo Diego-Rosell (Gallup), at Work Branch and the Walk Free Jan Van Dijk (independent researcher), Foundation, in partnership with the Vijay Verma (independent researcher), International Organization for Migration and Sheldon Zhang (University of (IOM). The statistical analysis, estimation Massachusetts/Lowell) for their guidance exercise, and preparation of the study on methodologies and data choices were carried out jointly by Michaelle De related to the development of the Global Cock, ILO, Jacqueline Joudo Larsen, Walk Estimates. Free Foundation, and Farhad Mehran, ILO Consultant, in close collaboration A technical report such as this would not with Harry Cook and Eliza Galos, IOM. have been possible without extensive consultations with a wide range of Contributions from colleagues across the colleagues who invested precious three partner agencies were gratefully time in contributing to and reviewing received. In particular, thanks go to Azfar the document. The support of the Khan and Houtan Homayounpour, ILO, ILO’s Statistics Department and the Fiona David and Katharine Bryant, Walk ILO’s International Labour Standards Free Foundation, and Mathieu Luciano, Department is gratefully acknowledged, IOM. in particular that of Hakki Ozel, Steven Kapsos, Deepa Rishikesh and Rosinda In its preparation, this report has Silva. Thank you also to Kevin Bales benefited from a series of contributions from the University of Nottingham for provided by eminent scholars, staff of providing comments. The extensive many international organizations, and research support provided by Stefanie civil society representatives. Discussions Ruehl and Ana Schmidlin, ILO consultants, with experts were necessary for the as well as Davina Durgana and Elise development of the Global Estimates and, Gordon, from the Walk Free Foundation in this regard, the International Labour is highly appreciated. Organization, the Walk Free Foundation and the International Organization for Migration would like to extend particular appreciation to the members of the Peer Review Group: Siddarth Kara (Harvard Acknowledgements 5 © Lisa Kristine Table of contents Introduction 9 Terminology 10 Part A. Main results 13 Global Results 13 Demographic characteristics of victims 14 Detailed Presentation of the Findings 23 Forced labour exploitation 25 Forced sexual exploitation 27 State-imposed forced labour 29 Forced marriage 32 Duration and Flow Estimates of Modern Slavery 35 Forced labour exploitation and forced sexual exploitation 37 Comparability with Previous Estimates 37 The present estimate and ILO’s 2012 estimate 38 The present estimate and Walk Free Foundation’s 2016 Global Slavery Index estimate 39 Part B. Methodology 43 Measurement Framework 44 Forced labour sub-component 44 Forced labour exploitation of adults 49 Forced sexual exploitation 65 Forced labour of children 68 State-imposed forced labour 71 Forced marriage 74 Data Limitations 78 Evaluation of Results 79 Future Directions in Measurement 84 Annex 1 World and regions composition 85 Annex 2 List of survey countries 91 Table of contents 7 © Lisa Kristine Introduction The global commitment through the This report explains the results and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) methodology of the Global Estimates to eradicate modern slavery, trafficking, of Modern Slavery in further detail. As forced labour, and child labour brings described in this report, as no single source added urgency to understanding the provides suitable and reliable data for all scale and manifestations of these issues. forms of modern slavery, a combined Accurate measurement is fundamental methodology has been adopted, drawing to establishing baselines against which on a variety of data sources as required. progress can be assessed and decisions The central element is the use of 54 made about the effective targeting of specially designed, national probabilistic policies, interventions, and resources. surveys involving interviews with more than 71,000 respondents across 48 Measuring modern slavery is fraught with countries for estimates of forced labour the challenges of investigating criminal and forced marriage. Case data from activity that is deeply hidden. While not IOM from the victims of trafficking that without gaps and limitations, the Global the Organization provides assistance Estimates of Modern Slavery provide the to were used, in combination with the international community with the best 54 datasets, to estimate forced sexual available data and information that exists exploitation and forced labour of children, about the scale and distribution of modern as well as the duration of forced labour slavery today. Moreover, there is a link exploitation. Forced labour imposed between SDG Target 8.7 (take immediate by state authorities was derived from and effective measures to eradicate forced validated sources and systematic review labour, end modern slavery and human of comments from the International trafficking and secure the prohibition and Labour Organization (ILO) supervisory elimination of the worst forms of child bodies with regard to ILO Conventions labour…) and other goals and targets, on forced labour. The methodology used particularly SDG 5.2 (on the elimination to build