CO2 directly emitted by fossil fuel based vehicles inside EU-27 and SSS by year 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 Mtonnes CO2 Mtonnes 500 400 300 200 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BASELINE Decoupled mobility Reduced mobility Induced mobility Constrained mobility 50% CO2 reduction 2005 10% CO2 reduction 2005 Mobility scenarios toward a post-carbon society TRANSvisions Task 2 Quantitative Scenarios FINAL VERSION by MCRIT (Barcelona, SP) TRANSvisions study was co-ordinated by Tetraplan (DK): Task 1 (by ISIS, IT) and Task 3 (University of Leeds, UK) Disclaimer: This report represents the views of the authors. These views are not necessarily those of the European Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commission or DG-TREN. March 2009 TRANSvisions 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................15 1.1. THE QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED .........................................................................................15 1.2. THE SCENARIO-BASED METHODOLOGY APPLIED? ..................................................................16 1.3. 2005-2050: A TRANSITION PERIOD ........................................................................................21 1.4. 1950-2050 MACROTENDENCIES .............................................................................................23 1.5. PATTERNS..............................................................................................................................25 2. SCENARIOS TOWARDS A POSTCARBON SOCIETY .......................................................31 2.1. PREDICTIVE SCENARIOS 2005-2030.......................................................................................31 2.2. EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS 2005-2030 ..................................................................................49 2.3. POLICY-AIMS OF THE SCENARIOS ...........................................................................................65 3. MODELLING TOOLS ...............................................................................................................68 3.1. THE LIMITS OF MODELS..........................................................................................................68 3.2. THE TRANS-TOOLS MODEL................................................................................................71 3.3. TRANS-TOOLS META-MODELS......................................................................................73 3.4. CALIBRATION PROCESS..........................................................................................................83 4. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS .......................................................................................................102 4.1. EVOLUTION OF MAIN SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS ............................................................102 4.2. EVOLUTION OF MAIN TRANSPORT INDICATORS ....................................................................103 4.3. ELASTICITY OF TRANSPORT TO GDP (EU-27 TRAFFIC) 2005-2050......................................108 4.4. ELASTICITY OF TRANSPORT TO GDP BY TYPE OF TRIPS .......................................................116 4.5. TRANSPORT GROWTH MEASURED IN TRIPS, TRIPS-KM, VEH-KM ...........................................118 4.6. PATHS FOR KEY INDICATORS FROM 2005 TO 2050 ...............................................................124 4.7. CO2 EMISSIONS FROM 2005 TO 2050....................................................................................126 5. POLICY BACKCASTING, 2050-2005....................................................................................137 5.1. IMPACT OF GDP EVOLUTION ON CO2 ..................................................................................137 5.2. THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON CO2 EMISSIONS ...............................................................141 5.3. IMPACT OF SPEED LIMITS AND CAR TECHNOLOGY (EURO V DIRECTIVE) ON CO2 EMISSIONS 146 5.4. POLICY BACKCASTING EXERCISES .......................................................................................149 5.5. WHICH POLICIES WILL ACHIEVE CO2 EMISSIONS TARGETS IN 2020 AND 2030? ...................157 6. CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................163 6.1. VISIONS OF THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN TRANSPORT ............................................................163 6.2. CONCLUDING REMARKS.......................................................................................................166 6.3. MAIN FINDINGS....................................................................................................................173 7. APPENDIX I: RESULTS FOR BASELINE AND EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS 2005- 2050 190 8. APPENDIX II: RESULTS FOR EXPLORATORY SCENARIOS 2005-2050.....................200 8.1. RESULTS FOR THE 2005-2020 PERIOD..................................................................................200 8.2. RESULTS FOR THE 2005-2030 PERIOD..................................................................................202 8.3. RESULTS FOR THE 2005-2050 PERIOD..................................................................................204 9. APPENDIX III: RESULTS OF PREDICTIVE SCENARIOS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT .....................................................................................................................................206 9.1. ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC (ALL MODES INCLUDED) IN 2005........................................207 9.2. ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC (ALL MODES INCLUDED) FOR THE BASELINE IN 2030..........221 9.3. ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT TRAFFIC (ONLY INLAND TRAFFIC INCLUDED) IN 2005 ......................232 9.4. ANALYSIS OF FREIGHT (ONLY INLAND TRAFFIC INCLUDED) FOR BASELINE IN 2030.............242 10. APPENDIX III: RESULTS OF PREDICTIVE SCENARIOS FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT. ....................................................................................................................................252 10.1. ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC IN 2005 (ALL MODES INCLUDED) ...................................252 2 TRANSvisions 10.2. ANALYSIS OF PASSENGER TRAFFIC (ALL MODES INCLUDED) FOR THE BASELINE IN 2030.....263 11. APPENDIX IV: CASE STUDIES........................................................................................274 11.1. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................274 11.2. INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................275 11.3. URBAN INFRASTRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT FOR SOFT TRAFFIC ............................................289 11.4. ECONOMIC POLICIES AND MARKET DEVELOPMENT ..............................................................292 11.5. TECHNOLOGY ......................................................................................................................297 11.6. EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR ROAD VEHICLES .................................................................298 11.7. EMERGING AIR TECHNOLOGIES............................................................................................321 11.8. EMERGING TRAIN TECHNOLOGIES........................................................................................327 11.9. EMERGING MARITIME TECHNOLOGIES .................................................................................331 11.10. NEW URBAN DEVELOPMENTS ..........................................................................................333 11.11. DEVELOPMENTS IN NEW BUILDINGS ...............................................................................335 11.12. ENERGY...........................................................................................................................337 3 TRANSvisions Figure 1: Practices used in the study or prediction of the future, by Chatterjee and Gordon, 2006. ......17 Figure 2: Scenario categories and main techniques, Borjeson et al. 2006..............................................19 Figure 3: 1950-2050 tendencies for key indicators ................................................................................25 Figure 4: US patterns on macroeconomic waves according to Kondratieff (source: Lucidlab, 2007)- Note that from 2000 to 2020 an economic decline is expected in the US. .............................................27 Figure 6: “The evolution of transport”, J.Ausubel & C.Marchetti, 2001................................................27 Figure 7: Source: UNPD, INTELSAT.....................................................................................................28 Figure 8: Patterns in travel time budget (source: ECMT 2002, based on Cesare Marchetti) .................28 Figure 9: “The Future”, C.Marchetti, 1988. ...........................................................................................29 Figure 2.1: New and upgraded Road infrastructure development in Baseline, 2030..............................39 Figure 2.2:. New and upgraded rail infrastructure development in Baseline, 2030...............................39 Figure 2.3: Road infrastructure development in the High Growth scenario compared to Baseline, 2030 ................................................................................................................................................................43 Figure 2.4: Rail infrastructure development in the High Growth