Census 2011 Analysis: Population, Households & Growth 1. Introduction This briefing provides an overview of key trends in the growth and change of Hackney’s population, its households and their characteristics, drawing on Census 2011 data. 2. Summary Hackney’s Population Hackney’s population has grown significantly in the last ten years, with the 2011 Census estimate showing a 20% increase. Much of this growth has been in the 25-34 age group. The borough is relatively young compared to London, with a greater proportion aged 25-34 and fewer aged over 45. The growth pattern across the borough varies significantly at ward level with Dalston, Hoxton, and Leabridge are all estimated to have experienced growth of over 40% over the last ten years, likely linked to housing developments in these wards. In other parts of the borough the population has not experienced growth. Projected Growth Projected trends in population for Hackney are predicted up to 2041. Over this time period a growth of around 70,000 persons is expected, with most of this growth taking place in the working age (16-64) population. This growth is also predicted to vary significantly by ward, with Haggerston, Hoxton and Brownswood expected to experience the most growth in the medium term. Housing and Household Trends The number of households in Hackney has grown significantly, from 86,040 in 2001 to 101,690 in 2011. Much of this growth has been driven by increase in the private rented sector. This growth has taken place throughout the borough, but particularly in areas such as Leabridge, Dalston and Haggerston. Household structures have also changed over the last ten years, the most significant trend has been the increase in ‘other’ multi person households, which most likely reflects an increase in sharers, renting rooms in properties rather than whole properties. Alongside this, there has been a drop in the proportion of one-person households, which could be linked to affordability constraints. Hackney is a relatively densely populated borough with an average household size of 2.4 persons, but this varies significantly between wards. Overcrowding and Deprivation In Hackney 16% of households in Hackney are overcrowded using Census definitions. This is lower than boroughs such as Newham (25%), Brent (18%) and Tower Hamlets (17%) but higher than the London average of 12%. Hackney experiences higher levels of deprivation in the east of the borough 1 3. Hackney’s Population The 2011 Census estimates Hackney’s population to be 246,270. This is 8,600 higher than Hackney’s independent Local Population Study Mayhew count, which estimated Hackney’s minimum confirmed population at 237,6461. The 2011 Census figure is also 20% higher than the last Census estimate in 2001. The table below sets out the age structure for Hackney’s population. Hackney’s population is relatively young compared to London, with a greater proportion aged 25-34, and fewer aged over 45. Similar overall proportions are aged 0-19. Figure 3.1: Population Age Structure Hackney Hackney London London Age Band Persons Proportion Persons Proportion 0-4 19200 8% 591500 7% 5-9 15400 6% 482800 6% 10-14 13900 6% 456900 6% 15-19 13400 5% 471700 6% 20-24 21700 9% 630000 8% 25-29 33800 14% 833000 10% 30-34 30100 12% 796900 10% 35-39 21300 9% 664000 8% 40-44 17400 7% 610000 7% 45-49 15100 6% 556700 7% 50-54 11500 5% 461300 6% 55-59 8900 4% 371900 5% 60-64 7300 3% 342600 4% 65-69 5300 2% 256800 3% 70-74 4400 2% 216300 3% 75-79 3400 1% 176800 2% 80-84 2300 1% 131800 2% 85+ 1900 1% 123000 2% All Persons Total 246300 8173900 Source: Census 2011 In terms of changes to the age structure over the period 2001 to 2011, the greatest growth has been in the proportion of 25-29 year olds. However, it should be noted that the 2001 Census is thought to have undercounted the population in Hackney, particularly for young adults, therefore some of this change may not be genuine. 1 Each year the ONS updates the population estimate for local authorities by releasing a Mid Year Estimate of the population, Hackney’s most recent Mid-Year Estimate is available via www.nomisweb.co.uk 2 Figure 3.2: Change in Population Age Structure 2011 2001 Hackney 2011 Hackney Hackney 2001 Hackney Age Band Persons Proportion Persons2 Proportion 0-4 19200 8% 16,751 8% 5-9 15400 6% 14,166 7% 10-14 13900 6% 14,083 7% 15-19 13400 5% 12,603 6% 20-24 21700 9% 15,790 8% 25-29 33800 14% 20,781 10% 30-34 30100 12% 21,487 11% 35-39 21300 9% 19,693 10% 40-44 17400 7% 14,523 7% 45-49 15100 6% 10,958 5% 50-54 11500 5% 9,365 5% 55-59 8900 4% 7,058 3% 60-64 7300 3% 6,640 3% 65-69 5300 2% 5,493 3% 70-74 4400 2% 4,908 2% 75-79 3400 1% 3,854 2% 80-84 2300 1% 2,459 1% 85+ 1900 1% 2,213 1% All Persons Total 246300 202,825 Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 4. Growth Trends The overall growth rate for the borough between 2001 and 2011 was 20%. The growth pattern across the borough varies significantly at ward level. Dalston, Hoxton, and Leabridge are all estimated to have experienced growth of over 40% during this period according to Census data. This growth is likely linked to new housing delivered in these wards. Other areas such as Queensbridge, Haggerston and De Beauvoir have also experienced notable growth. Brownswood ward is the only ward which was estimated to have experienced a drop in the population. This is likely linked to decanting of housing linked to regeneration schemes. 2 2001 Census data may not sum exactly due to the random adjustment of data to avoid the release of confidential data. For that reason 2001 census person totals are rounded to the nearest five persons 3 Figure 4.1: Ward Population and Growth 2011 2001 Persons Persons % Growth Brownswood 11,091 11,332 -2% Cazenove 13,392 10,504 27% Chatham 13,232 10,736 23% Clissold 12,212 10,438 17% Dalston 14,727 10,357 42% De Beauvoir 13,643 9,925 37% Hackney Central 12,548 10,282 22% Hackney Downs 12,921 10,269 26% Haggerston 13,904 10,366 34% Hoxton 15,174 10,702 42% King's Park 11,098 10,961 1% Leabridge 14,039 9,855 42% Lordship 12,280 11,301 9% New River 12,551 11,510 9% Queensbridge 13,670 10,177 34% Springfield 12,378 10,851 14% Stoke Newington Central 12,445 10,140 23% Victoria 13,231 12,068 10% Wick 11,734 11,053 6% 246,270 202,825 21% Source: Census 2011 & Census 2001 As stated above, caution should be used, however, in interpreting this since the 2001 Census is believed to have undercounted the population of Hackney. Therefore, while growth rates are indicative they may not be wholly representative of trends over the last ten years. For these reason no further or more detailed comparisons with 2001 Census data are made. 5. Projection Population Growth Using Census 2011 data as a base it is possible project forward likely future trends in the size and age structure of the population. The GLA produce a range of population projections that take into account the local fertility, mortality and migration trends as well as the effect of new housing development on the potential trends in population size. The graph below shows the projected trends in population for Hackney predicted up to 2041. Over this time period a growth of around 70,000 persons is expected. The population projections are refreshed every year by the GLA to keep pace with new and emerging population trends3. 3 For more information on the current round of GLA projections see http://data.london.gov.uk/datastorefiles/documents/update-05-2013-GLA-2012-round- population-projections.pdf 4 Figure 5.1: Projection Population Growth in Hackney 250,000 200,000 150,000 0‐15 16‐64 100,000 65+ 50,000 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 Source: Census 2001 & 2011, & GLA SHLAA Population Projections 2012 Round Overall, growth is projected in all age groups. However, it is the working age population (16-64 year olds) who are projected to grow most significantly. The majority of the population growth over the period can be accounted for by this segment of the population. The young population (0-15s) is also predicted to grow over the next ten year period, flattening after 2021. Growth is also predicted in the 65+ age group, and this is particularly marked from 2021 onwards. Prior to 2011 this age group fell slightly. The shift to growth in this age group after 2011 can be accounted for by falling mortality rates, increasing life expectancy, and the ‘baby boom’ population reaching retirement age. Explanatory Note: GLA Population Projections As set out above, GLA population projections make use of demographic information on fertility, mortality and migration, then information on new housing development as predicted in the Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment or SHLAA is added into the projection model to arrive at final projections. By taking account of planned or expected new housing developments, the estimates which are based on solely demographic information may either be increased (because the new housing development, is driving population growth) or constrained (because recent trends in population change outstrip the housing capacity for further population increase – even when significant new housing development is planned).