Memorandum TO: Oklahoma Water Resources Board Scenic Rivers Technical Advisory Committee Members Steven Drown Chief of the Water Division Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality 5301 Northshore Drive North Little Rock, AR 72118-5317 Edward Swaim, Esq., Chief, Water Resources Management Arkansas Natural Resources Commission 101 East Capitol, Suite 350 Little Rock, AR 72201 FROM: Marty D. Matlock, Ph.D., P.E., C.S.E., Area Director, Center for Agricultural and Rural Sustainability Professor, Biological and Agricultural Engineering 233 Engineering Hall Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas Fayetteville, AR 72701 [email protected] Brian E. Haggard, Ph.D. Director, Arkansas Water Resources Center Professor, Biological and Agricultural Engineering 201 Engineering Hall Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas Fayetteville, AR 72701 Andrew N. Sharpley, Ph.D. Professor, Crop, Soils and Environmental Sciences Department 115 Plant Science Building Division of Agriculture University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701 DATE: July 25, 2011 SUBJECT: Response to the Oklahoma Scenic River Technical Advisory Group Call for Data 1 Purpose: The objective of the Oklahoma Scenic River Technical Advisory Group (OSRTAG) is to “re-evaluate the Oklahoma Scenic River phosphorus criterion to reaffirm its appropriateness or to recommend if a revised phosphorous (sic) criterion might better serve to restore and protect the integrity of Oklahoma’s Scenic Rivers.” The purpose of the review of the Illinois River nutrient criteria for phosphorus is to insure that the numeric standard is informed by the most current data and methods for protecting water quality. The Advisory Group requested submission of “best scientific information contributions regarding phosphorus criteria that will protect the natural scenic beauty, water conservation, fish, wildlife and outdoor recreational values of Oklahoma’s six Scenic Rivers.” This memorandum provides the assessment of Drs. Matlock, Haggard and Sharpley of the information that is available and appropriate to consider, as well as supporting information through attachments. Recommendations: Our recommendations for the OSRTAG include 1) Review of the procedure for developing nutrient criteria for phosphorus in Oklahoma, 2) clarification of the impacts and water quality characteristics of greatest concern in the Illinois River, and 3) revision of the monitoring and assessment procedures to evaluate attainment levels of water quality in the Illinois River. These recommendations and citations to the associated literature to support them are provided below. Recommendation 1: Review of the procedure for developing nutrient criteria for phosphorus in Oklahoma. The US EPA recommends three scientifically defensible approaches for nutrient criteria development: 1) reference condition approaches, 2) mechanistic modeling, and 3) stressor-response analysis. The initial water quality standard for phosphorus was established using the first approach based largely on the work of Clark et al. (2000). Nutrient concentrations from “relatively un-impacted basins” were analyzed, and the third quartile distribution (75% exceedance level) was selected as the numeric criteria for the Illinois River Basin (0.0375 mg/l total phosphorus).The first procedure (using reference conditions) does not consider current catchment land use and land cover of streams when developing nutrient criteria. It is our assessment that the third method, the stressor-response analysis, is most appropriate for assessing impacts on complex stream systems with multiple stressors and changing conditions. The stressor-response criteria method published by EPA (USEPA, 2010a) is applied in the site-specific alternative criteria method adopted by USEPA Region 4 for Florida (FDEP, 2011). It is our belief that this method represents the most robust method for development of nutrient criteria of which the goal is to protect the designated uses of Oklahoma Scenic Rivers. This approach is consistent with the goals and intentions of the Task Force. This approach allows stakeholders to develop site-specific alternative criteria (SSAC) for waterbodies. These SSACs replace numeric nutrient criteria where data suggests designated uses are more protected by alternative metrics, are technically sound, and detailed compliance criteria are presented. This recommendation is consistent with recent independent Scientific Advisory Board Panel’s (SAB) “Review of Empirical Approaches for Nutrient Criteria Derivation” (USEPA, 2010b), which stated that “the stressor-response approach is a legitimate, scientifically based method for developing numeric nutrient criteria if the approach is appropriately applied (i.e., not used in isolation but as part of a weight-of-evidence approach).” Further, the Panel suggested that the stressor-response approach be used with other available methodologies in the context of a 2 tiered approach where uncertainties in different approaches are recognized, and weight of evidence is used to establish the likelihood of causal relationships between nutrients and their effects for criteria derivation (USEPA, 2010b). A more recent SAB report reviewing “EPA's draft Approaches for Deriving Numeric Nutrient Criteria for Florida's Estuaries, Coastal Waters, and Southern Inland Flowing Waters” came to the same weight-of-evidence approach to developing numeric nutrient criteria (USEPA, 2011). Recommendation 2: Clarification of impacts and water quality characteristics of greatest concern in the Illinois River. The current numeric phosphorus criterion was developed to “assure that water quality better than that necessary to support beneficial uses is achieved” (OWRB, 2011). The objective of the numeric phosphorus criterion was to “restore and protect the integrity of Oklahoma’s Scenic Rivers” (OWRB, 2011). The impact of concern was “…nutrients – primarily phosphorus – were seen to be causing accelerated primary productivity in the Illinois River, resulting in significant growths of both attached algae (periphyton) and suspended algae (phytoplankton). As a consequence, historical river clarity and substrate quality were being adversely affected to such an extent that, without intervention, the Illinois River’s exceptional ecological and recreational significance were in jeopardy” (OWRB, 2011). There are a number of concerns and associated assumptions raised in this statement. The “integrity of Oklahoma’s Scenic Rivers” was implied to be defined as the “exceptional ecological and recreational significance”. The presumption seems to be that algal growth from phosphorus was the primary cause of this threat or impairment. Much of the data collected and analyzed in the basin over the past 20 years was summarized in Haggard et al. (2010). This report summarized the data and results of over 30 contemporary assessments of water quality and ecosystem condition in the Upper Illinois River Basin (i.e., that portion of the Basin in Arkansas); this report provides a comprehensive listing of the papers relevant to the Illinois River including 2010 and prior years. Haggard (2010) showed that total phosphorus loads in the Upper Illinois River began to decrease in 2002. Phosphorus concentrations in the Upper Illinois River have been declining for almost a decade. Scott et al. (2011) showed similar decreases in phosphorus concentrations of the Lower Illinois River, especially at the Illinois River near Watts, Oklahoma. No assessments have been conducted on the Lower Illinois River (i.e., that portion of the River in Oklahoma) by OWRB to evaluate if the “exceptional ecological and recreational significance” have improved or changed as a result of a decade of decreasing phosphorus. Without these data there is no credible way to correlate phosphorus loads to the water quality objectives described by the OWRB standard. Matlock et al. (2009) demonstrated that the aquatic ecosystem condition (fish, benthic macro- invertebrate and algae) were less impacted by phosphorus than by other land use impacts such as hydrologic regime alteration, bank erosion, and riparian cover loss (Matlock et al., 2009). Ecological metrics suggested that in-stream characteristics might have improved in these streams over the past 10 years. The data are not adequately resolved to identify proximal causes of impact or improvement, but the role of phosphorus was not the sole driver in ecosystem structure. 3 Recommendation 3: Revision of the monitoring and assessment procedures to evaluate water quality in the Illinois River. The current approach to monitoring water quality in the Illinois River will not measure success at meeting the criteria described by OWRB. The most appropriate method to measure the “exceptional ecological and recreational significance” of the Illinois River is to assess key ecological characteristics that define “exceptional ecological…significance” and identify water quality characteristics that define “exceptional…recreational significance.” These are not difficult to monitor; they are the same characteristics monitored by Matlock et al. (2009) in Spring and Osage Creeks in the Upper Illinois River in 2007-2009. A basin-level assessment strategy should include water quality, ecosystem characteristics, river reach characteristics, and watershed land use characteristics. This assessment would support Recommendation 1. A five-year assessment, in conjunction with current comprehensive phosphorus emission reduction strategies, would provide the resolution of data to characterize and