29 New war, old enemies: Conflict dynamics in South Kordofan By Claudio Gramizzi and Jérôme Tubiana Copyright Published in Switzerland by the Small Arms Survey © Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva 2013 First published in March 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing of the Small Arms Survey, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organi- zation. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Publications Manager, Small Arms Survey, at the address below. Small Arms Survey Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland Series editor: Emile LeBrun Copy-edited by Emile LeBrun and Clar Ni Chonghaile Proofread by Donald Strachan ([email protected]) Cartography by Jillian Luff (www.mapgrafix.com) Typeset in Optima and Palatino by Richard Jones ([email protected]) Printed by nbmedia in Geneva, Switzerland ISBN 978-2-9700856-2-1 2 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 29 Contents List of boxes and maps ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 List of abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 I. Introduction and key findings ............................................................................................................................................. 8 II. The South Kordofan conflict and its roots ................................................................................................. 11 Pre-civil war era 11 Civil war and CPA period 13 Slide back to conflict 15 A new war in the Nuba Mountains 18 III. Armed actors ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 24 Sudanese forces 24 Armed opposition forces 27 IV. Rebel weapons captured from SAF ..................................................................................................................... 33 Documenting captured stocks 33 Weapons and ammunition observed 35 V. Reported indiscriminate weapons use by SAF ................................................................................... 40 Anti-personnel and anti-tank landmines 41 Cluster bombs 42 Incendiary bombs 42 Unverified reports of use of toxic weapons 43 VI. North-South conflict along the South Kordofan–Unity border ............................ 44 Bombing along and across the border 44 The role of the GoSS 46 Gramizzi and Tubiana New war, old enemies 3 The battles of Jaw and Hejlij 49 The South Kordofan–Unity border dispute 53 VII. Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 56 Endnotes ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58 Bibliography ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 70 About the authors ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 74 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................................................................. 75 4 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 29 List of boxes and maps Box 1 Chronology of main events in South Kordofan conflict, 2011–12 Box 2 Dug in: SPLM-N areas of control Map 1 South Kordofan, Sudan Map 2 Border area between South Kordofan and Unity Gramizzi and Tubiana New war, old enemies 5 List of abbreviations APC Armoured personnel carrier AUHIP African Union High-Level Implementation Panel for Sudan and South Sudan CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CRP Central Reserve Police GoS Government of Sudan GoSS Government of South Sudan DShK Degtyaryov-Shpagin large-calibre machine gun HSBA Human Security Baseline Assessment IDP internally displaced person JEM Justice and Equality Movement JIU Joint Integrated Unit NCP National Congress Party NISS National Intelligence and Security Service OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PCP Popular Congress Party PDF Popular Defence Forces PK Pulemyot Kalashnikova machine gun RPG rocket-propelled grenade SAF Sudan Armed Forces SLA-AW Sudan Liberation Army-Abdul Wahid SLA-MM Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minawi SPLM/A Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SPLM-N Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North SRF Sudanese Revolutionary Front 6 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 29 SSLA South Sudan Liberation Army SSP Satellite Sentinel Project UN United Nations UNAMID African Union/United Nations Hybrid operation in Darfur UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNMISS United Nations Mission in South Sudan UNSC United Nations Security Council WHO World Health Organization Gramizzi and Tubiana New war, old enemies 7 I. Introduction and key findings In early 2011, smouldering tensions between the Government of Sudan (GoS) and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) flared up again in Sudan’s South Kordofan and Blue Nile, two states bordering what was soon to become independent South Sudan. Since the 1980s, these states had been main theatres in the civil war between the central government in Khartoum and the SPLA. That conflict ended with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which cleared the way for a referendum on self-determination in the South, but not in the two border states. By June 2011, large-scale conflict engulfed South Kordofan’s Nuba Mountains area, later spreading to Blue Nile in September. Within just a few weeks, this ‘new war’ saw the mobilization of thousands of men and huge quantities of weapons and ammunition, air strikes, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people. The new conflict pits Sudanese forces—the national army and paramilitaries—against the northern branch of the SPLM, includ- ing former members of the southern SPLA, and allied elements of the Darfur armed opposition. This Working Paper describes the first year of renewed war (June 2011– July 2012) based on field research in South Kordofan and South Sudan in Feb- ruary and May 2012. It focuses on the conduct and dynamics of the current conflict and the primary armed actors, identifying shared weapons and ammu- nition holdings based on detailed accounts of materiel seized, as well as photo- graphs and first-hand physical inspections. While the war in South Kordofan is fundamentally a conflict between pri- marily (Northern) Sudanese actors for control of the state, it has clear cross- border implications—as SAF’s air strikes in Unity state and the Southern fight- ers’ temporary seizure of the Hejlij oil fields attest. This paper reviews these border aspects of the conflict and its impacts on relations between Khartoum and Juba. 8 Small Arms Survey HSBA Working Paper 29 Key findings include: • The rebels appear to have made significant gains in the first year with some 30,000 Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) troops and allied forces capturing a large part of the Nuba Mountains area. • The involvement of a relatively small contingent (700–1,000) of experienced Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) fighters was crucial to rebel victories. • Prior to and just after Southern independence, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) sent thousands of ethnic Northern SPLA soldiers to South Kordofan fully armed with small arms, heavy weapons, and tanks, provid- ing a significant source of fighters and weapons for the rebellion. In the post- independence period, however, the Small Arms Survey has found no evidence of weapons supplies from the Government of South Sudan (GoSS) to the SPLM-N, though some political and logistical support is evident. • Rebel seizures of SAF weapons and vehicles between June 2011 and April 2012 provided their most valuable military resources, allowing SPLM-N to preserve its strength and making it less reliant on military supplies from out- side the country. • Much of the rebel arms and ammunition obtained through capture from SAF were of older vintage, mainly Soviet-type small arms, light weapons, and their ammunition originating from Bulgaria, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Captured Sudanese and Chinese-made weapons and ammunition were more recently produced. • SAF superiority in South Kordodan is limited to its control of the skies. As in its Darfur campaign, the use of adapted Antonov cargo planes and mili- tary aircraft for bombing has not led to military advances but has succeeded in terrorizing and displacing the local population. • There is strong evidence that SAF has employed cluster bombs and incendi- ary weapons in South Kordofan. The presence of anti-personnel