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The material herein has been vetted by the conference attendees and both the introduction and the post-conference material have been re- viewed and approved for publication by the sponsoring research unit at RAND. Shaping Tomorrow Today Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals Editors Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Endy Y. Min, James A. Dewar Contributors Robert J. Lempert, Paul C. Light, Lant Pritchett, Gregory F. Treverton Sponsored by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition The RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition International Programs at RAND The conference proceedings described in this report were sponsored by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface On March 17–18, 2009, the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition hosted a workshop called “Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals.” The workshop gave policymakers and analysts an opportunity to explore new methods and tools that can help improve long-term decision- making. The intent was to conduct this exploration collaboratively, drawing from many coun- tries a mixed group of tool builders, analysts, planners, decisionmakers and interested lay observers. Their task was to consider how analysts and policymakers can determine when it is important to make long-term (as opposed to short-term) decisions, how to make better long- term decisions, and how best to support policymakers in thinking long term. These workshop proceedings summarize the main discussions and presentations that took place during the two days of the workshop and include the papers written for workshop participants. They will be of interest to anyone engaged in the study and practice of thinking and acting meaningfully over the long term, with particular reference to problems faced by planners and policymakers in public institutions of governance. About the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition The Pardee Center aims to enhance the overall future quality and condition of human life by aggressively disseminating and applying new methods for long-term policy analysis (LTPA) in a wide variety of policy areas in which they are needed most. There has been no shortage of past attempts to think globally about the human condition or the long-range future. What has been missing, however, is a means of tying those efforts systematically and analytically to today’s policy decisions. This is the gap that the Pardee Center seeks to address. Questions or comments about these proceedings should be sent to the director of the Pardee Center, Robert J. Lempert ([email protected]). Information about the Pardee Center itself and its other projects and initiatives is available online (http://www.rand.org/ international_programs/pardee/). Further inquiries about Pardee Center activities and projects should be sent to the following address: Robert J. Lempert, Director Pardee Center RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street iii iv Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 310-393-0411, x6217 [email protected] Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Tables ............................................................................................................ ix Summary ........................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments .............................................................................................xv Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xvii CHAPTER ONE Shaping Tomorrow Today Workshop: An Overview ..................................................... 1 What Is a Long-Term Policy Decision? ........................................................................ 2 Overview of the Workshop ..................................................................................... 3 Key Issues ......................................................................................................... 6 Issues for Which Long-Term Thinking Improves Near-Term Choices .................................... 6 Key Themes for Implementing Long-Range Decisions in Government ................................... 7 References ......................................................................................................... 9 CHAPTER TWO Evaluating and Implementing Long-Term Decisions ...................................................11 Robert J. Lempert and Paul C. Light Challenges of Long-Term Decisionmaking ..................................................................12 Connecting Near-Term Actions and Long-Term Goals ....................................................14 Implementing Effective Long-Term Decisions in Government ............................................17 Responsibility for the Future ..................................................................................21 References ....................................................................................................... 22 CHAPTER THREE Long-Term Global Challenges in Education: Are There Feasible Steps Today? ....................25 Lant Pritchett Three Issues About Learning Achievement ................................................................. 26 Learning Achievement of New Cohorts .................................................................. 26 Long-Run Stagnation of Learning Performance in the OECD ........................................ 30 The Economics of Superstars and Their Production ......................................................33 Long-Run Considerations in Human Capital ...............................................................37 Obsolete from Success ........................................................................................39 Obsolete from Failure ........................................................................................41 Obsolete from Changes in Needs .......................................................................... 42 v vi Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals Conclusion .....................................................................................................