University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository Master's Theses and Capstones Student Scholarship Fall 2009 An assessment of stress in Acer saccharum as a possible response to climate change Martha Carlson University of New Hampshire, Durham Follow this and additional works at: https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis Recommended Citation Carlson, Martha, "An assessment of stress in Acer saccharum as a possible response to climate change" (2009). Master's Theses and Capstones. 469. https://scholars.unh.edu/thesis/469 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Student Scholarship at University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Master's Theses and Capstones by an authorized administrator of University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. AN ASSESSMENT OF STRESS IN ACER SACCHARUM AS A POSSIBLE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE BY MARTHA CARLSON BA, MOUNT HOLYOKE COLLEGE, 1968 THESIS Submitted to the University of New Hampshire in Partial Fullfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Natural Resources: Environmental Conservation September 2009 UMI Number: 1472053 Copyright 2009 by Carlson, Martha INFORMATION TO USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleed-through, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. UMI® UMI Microform 1472053 Copyright 2009 by ProQuest LLC All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ©2009 Martha Carlson This thesis has been examined and approved. Thesis Director, Barrett N. Rock Professor of Natural Resources and Earth, Oceans and Space Jdimes^E. Pollard, Professor of Plant Biologyj(Physiology) Kevin T. Smith, Affiliate Professor, USDA Forest Service For my husband, Rudy Carlson iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to thank my graduate committee members: Dr. Barry Rock, Dr. Jim Pollard and Dr. Kevin Smith. You set high standards. You taught the fine details of academic research. You answered the smallest question. You enthusiastically supported this research. This project had support from my family, Rudy Carlson, David and Rosamond Carlson, Anne Raver, the late Kathleen Raver. They know how much their gift of learning means to me. Many old friends encouraged me to pursue this project. Thank you. I also wish to thank the landowners and sugar producers who assisted with this study, particularly Jackie Hunter Rollins, Lori and David Burrows, Janet Bickford and Charlie Johnston, and members of the New Hampshire Maple Producers Association. Many people at the University of New Hampshire, members of Dr. Rock's graduate research team, staff members in both Natural Resources and Complex Systems Research Center, members of other departments and students assisted me in this research. I especially appreciate the help and friendship offered by Mike Gagnon, Erica Lingren, Danielle Haddad, and Brett Clark. I also wish to thank the University of New Hampshire which welcomed a non-traditional student to all the wonders of a fine university. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS v LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES x ABSTRACT xiii CHAPTER PAGE I. INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW 1 Climate Change 1 Approach 11 Hypotheses and Objectives 16 II. METHODS AND SITE DATA 17 10 Study Plots 19 Plot Surveys 22 III. SPECTRAL STUDIES 27 Abstract 27 Introduction 28 Methods 32 Results 38 Discussion 43 Conclusion 55 IV. LEAF AND BUD ANATOMY 56 vi Abstract 56 Introduction 57 Methods 61 Results 63 Discussion 67 Conclusion 75 V. TRENDS IN SUGAR CONTENT AND WOOD GROWTH 77 Abstract 77 Introduction 79 Methods 83 Results 86 Discussion 91 Conclusion 102 VI. CONCLUSION 104 Hypotheses 104 Objectives 106 Recommendations for further study 108 LIST OF REFERENCES 109 APPENDICES 119 A. Tables 120 B. Figures 155 C. IRB #4136 202 vii LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Precipitation and temperature, 2008 121 2.2 Collection dates of buds and leaves 122 2.3 Plot data for 10 sites 123 2.4 Soils found on 10 plots 124 2.5 Plot soils and high quality site indicators 125 2.6 Individual tree measurements 126 2.7 Basal area by plot 127 3.1 Response-to-stress definitions 128 3.2 Ranking of Munsell Color Chart values 129 3.3 Days of season and growing days 130 3.4 Measured values for all trees 131 3.5 Indices values for Tree 826 136 3.6 Indices values for Tree 822 137 3.7 Correlations of all spectral indices measures 138 3.8 Comparison of grow days 139 3.9 Percent of season by index and grow days 140 3.10 Summary of analysis of means and grow days 141 3.11 Stress levels by each measure, 1-2, all trees 142 3.12 Stress levels by each measure, 102, all plots 143 4.1. Fall bud health defined 144 4.2. VIRIS scans suggesting SEM of pollen 145 viii 4.3 Spring bud size and growth 146 4.4 Fall bud quality 147 4.5 Leaf area of all trees 148 4.6 Comparison of spring bud and fall bud quality 149 4.7 Stress levels by all test 150 5.1 Decadal temperature change in NH 151 5.2 Sap sugar content, 1900 to 2000 152 5.3 Average decadal growth of one tree in each plot 153 5.4 Estimated age of trees by wood counts 154 IX LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 Map of study area 156 2.2 Range View Farm, Plots 1 and 2 157 2.3 Googin Farm, Plots 3 and 4 158 2.4 Hunter Farm, Plots 5 and 6 159 2.5 Bickford Farm, Plots 7 and 8 160 2.6 Burrows Farm, Plots 9 and 10 161 2.7 Sample plot 162 3.1 Sample VIRIS scan 163 3.2 Calculation of first derivative for a REIP 164 3.2 Sample from Munsell Color Chart with Leaf from Tree 837 165 3.4 VIRIS scan of Trees 832 and 833, April and May 166 3.5 May 30 VIRIS of Trees 835, 836, 837 167 3.6 May 30 VIRIS of Trees 820, 821 and 822 168 3.7 Seasonal VIRIS scan and photos, Tree 826 169 3.8 Seasonal VIRIS scan and photos, Tree 822 170 3.9 Chart of REIP and NDVI by plot and sample date 171 3.10 Chart of NIR3/1 and TM5/4 by plot and sample date 172 3.11 ANOVA, all REIPs by plot and time series of REIPs 173 3.12 ANOVA of TM 5/4 by plot 174 3.13 Comparison of two time series analyses of TM 5/4 grow days 175 3.14 ANOVA of NIR 3/1 by plot and time series of NIR 3/1 176 3.15 ANOVA of Munsell by plot and time series of Munsell 177 3.16 Correlations of all indices' values 178 4.1 Progress of bud development, spring 2008 179 4.2 Bud quality defined in photographs 180 4.3 ANOVA of good and excellent buds 181 4.4 ANOVA of excellent buds 182 4.5 Comparison of anthers 183 4.6 Comparison of pollen 184 4.7 Chart of changing leaf area by tree 185 4.8 ANOVA of leaf area by test 186 4.9 ANOVA of leaf area by plot 187 4.10 Correlations of leaf area with spectral measures 188 4.11 Scanning electron microscope (SEM) photos of bud 189 4.12 Arrangement of leaves from one bud 190 5.1 NH temperature change, 1835-2006 191 5.2 Hunter Farm sap to syrup ratio 192 5.3 Four New England states'sap to syrup ratio 193 5.4 Comparison of sap to syrup ratio trends and temperature trend 194 5.5 Hunter Farm first run days 195 5.6 Hunter Farm last run days 196 5.7 ANOVA of wood growth 197 5.8 Radial views of new wood and bark, Tree 816 and Tree 834 198 xi 5.9 Cambial zone. Tree 816 199 5.10 Cambial zone, Tree 834 200 5.11 Cells of cambial zone, Tree 834 201 xii ABSTRACT AN ASSESSMENT OF STRESS IN ACER SACCHARUM AS A POSSIBLE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE by Martha Carlson University of New Hampshire, September 2009 Climate change is projected to extirpate Acer saccharum throughout its range in the United States. The current investigation evaluates the potential of spectral indices of foliar reflectance, measures of leaf area and bud quality, and historic trends in sap sugar and wood increments for detecting stress in sugar maple. Thirty trees were examined in 10 plots on 5 sugar bushes in or near the Bearcamp Valley, New Hampshire, over the course of the 2008 growing season. The study found water stress in 100% of trees; reduced chlorophyll content in 60%; early abscission of leaves in 80%; reduced growing season in 70%; and poor fall foliage color in 80%. Drought in early summer and unusually heavy rain in mid-summer are likely factors. Despite stress, 73% of the trees produced high quality buds. Differences in stand management, site conditions, and prior stresses account for differences in response to stress. XIII Chapter I Introduction and Literature Review Climate Change Five global climate models (GCMs), recently released by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), agree that annual minimum temperatures over the next century are likely to rise 3.2 to 5.4°C.