SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMIA Y APOYO A LA EMPRESA MINISTERIO DE ECONOMÍA Y DIRECCION GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONOMICA COMPETITIVIDAD '$' UNIDAD DE APOYO CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 102.3 ANEXO XII Alvaro Espina 24 Noviembre de 2014 Entre 6 al 20 de Noviembre ft.com/global economy EU Economy November 20, 2014 6:50 pm Italy accuses Brussels of ‘shaky’ accounting James Politi in Rome ©AFP Italy has accused the EU of using “shaky” methodology to evaluate countries’ fiscal policies, raising the stakes ahead of next week’s first verdict on the budgets of eurozone member states by the new European Commission. In an interview with the Financial Times, Pier Carlo Padoan, Italy’s economy minister, said the EU’s measure of output gaps – or the amount by which a country’s gross domestic product falls short of its potential – was outdated and underestimated the depth of the recessions which followed the financial crisis. More ON THIS TOPIC// Wine funds look to Italy for tasty returns/ Renzi and Berlusconi agree electoral deal/ Comment Italy’s Post-it premier hopes reforms stick/ Italy has ‘atomic bomb’ to revive economy IN EU ECONOMY/ Merkel ally doubts Hollande’s reforms/ Eurozone recovery slows to 16-month low/ ECB warns of ‘pessimism’ risk to recovery/ Brussels eyes €300bn investment funds “[The] decisions taken [based] on such a shaky analytical apparatus are very important,” Mr Padoan said. “This has to do with resources affecting the lives of citizens so we cannot fool around with that.” In the run-up to this year’s budget, Italy has sought to persuade Brussels to show as much flexibility as possible on its fiscal rules. This would have given Rome extra room to slash taxes and limit spending cuts to counter a bitter economic climate involving three years of declining gross domestic product. The size of Italy’s output gap is crucial because the EU uses it to calculate structural budget deficits, which take into account the impact of economic cycles. The greater the output gap, the greater the leeway conceded by the EU on fiscal matters. The EU’s measure of the Italian output gap is 3.5 per cent of GDP. Mr Padoan noted that this figure was significantly lower than the equivalent one from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, of which he has been chief economist. The Paris-based body has estimated Italy’s output gap to to be 5.1 per cent this year, with a new and possibly higher projection due next week. Mr Padoan added that if the latter number were applied, Italy “would be in structural surplus now and . for a long time”. “We would be in a different world, [with] no requests for additional resources, we would have to do nothing. It would change a lot,” he added. On Thursday, the European Commission defended its methodology, which was agreed by all member states at the height of the eurozone crisis and is regularly assessed by experts from national finance ministries. The rules are due to be formally reviewed next year and Mr Padoan said he believed there was “broad consensus” among EU members for making a change. But commission officials denied there was any appetite to reopen the issue. The EU had originally asked Italy to reduce its structural budget deficit by as much as 0.7 per cent of GDP. The budget proposed last month by Matteo Renzi, the prime minister, made savings for only 0.1 per cent of GDP, but Rome avoided an outright rejection by finding additional measures that cut it by 0.3 per cent. The new commission led by Jean-Claude Juncker will deliver its verdict next week. Mr Padoan said he expected Mr Jucker and his colleagues would give Italy the green light. “I expect the commission will understand and appreciate the overall philosophy of the economic policy followed by the [Italian] government which is based on growth- 2 friendly fiscal consolidation,” Mr Padoan said. “The bottom line is I think the commission is appreciating and approving this approach,” he added, citing progress towards “fiscal targets” and an “unprecedented” effort on economic reforms. Speaking in his office in Rome, Mr Padoan offered a gloomy outlook for the European economy. “We need to realise that we are running a big risk of slowing down again. It’s not obvious that Europe will come out of this very low-growth environment quickly and successfully,” he added. This applied to Germany as well, with Berlin “beginning to realise that they are not immune to the possible negative impact of a new slowdown,” Mr Padoan said. The European Central Bank led by Mario Draghi, former governor of the Bank of Italy, should, he said, move to lift inflation across the eurozone, amid speculation that a round of sovereign bond purchases, or quantitative easing, could be on the cards in Frankfurt. “I would certainly recommend to try to do as much as can be done to accelerate the speed towards 2 per cent,” Mr Padoan said, referring to the ECB’s inflation target. Mr Padoan spoke as tensions were rising in Italy ahead of a key vote in the lower house of parliament next week on reform of the labour market, one of the government’s key priorities to reboot the economy. Mr Padoan said he expected the measure to pass in spite of heavy opposition from trade unions who have called a general strike for December 12. “Usually if there is a protest against reforms it means the reforms will have an impact, otherwise there is no protest – this is very strong evidence of that,” Mr Padoan said. He added that the government was “very determined” to have the new law in place by the start of next year. http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/86d522c8-70d5-11e4-85d5- 00144feabdc0.html#axzz3JX0xCI6o 3 Europe : Berlin hausse le ton contre Paris, Sapin défend le choix de la croissance FREDERIC SCHAEFFER / JOURNALISTE |LE 20/11 A 19:29, MIS A JOUR A 19:43 Le ministre des Finances, Michel Sapin, doit se rendre à Lisbonne et à Madrid pour rencontrer ses homologues portugais et espagnol - AFP Le commissaire allemand, Günther Oettinger, exige des « contreparties très concrètes » à la demande de délai de Paris.Michel Sapin se rend à Lisbonne et à Madrid pour souligner l’urgence d’une relance économique de la zone euro. Il y a de l’électricité dans l’air à l’approche de la publication, lundi, de l’avis de Bruxelles sur le projet de budget de la France. Dans la dernière ligne droite, Berlin a décidé de hausser le ton par la voix de son commissaire à l’Economie numérique, Günther Oettinger. Passablement irrité de voir la France repousser encore de deux ans son objectif de retour du déficit à 3 % de PIB, « nous perdrions toute crédibilité si nous prolongions pour la troisième fois le délai accordé sans exiger des contreparties très concrètes et précises », prévient-il dans une tribune publiée par « Les Echos ». Et d’exhorter la Commission de traiter avec « rigueur » la France « en tant que pays déficitaire récidiviste ». Embarrassée par le report à 2017 de l’objectif des 3 %, la Commission s’apprête à demander à la France de faire plus d’économies pour crédibiliser cet objectif et éviter un nouveau dérapage. A Berlin, on rappelle aussi qu’une procédure de sanction peut être engagée si la Commission arrive à la conclusion que la France ne fait pas assez d’efforts et n’a pas pris les mesures appropriées. Une menace balayée d’un revers de main jeudi par Michel Sapin, jugeant la question d’éventuelles amendes « sans intérêt et sans consistance ». « Chacun ne doit pas se prendre pour une pervenche […], équipée de carnets à souches », a réagi le ministre des Finances. « Sanctionner, c’est toujours un 4 échec », avait déclaré, la semaine dernière, le nouveau commissaire aux Affaires économiques, Pierre Moscovici, semblant écarter l’hypothèse d’une sanction. Très lourds sacrifices C’est dans ce contexte que Michel Sapin se rend vendredi à Lisbonne et à Madrid pour rencontrer ses homologues portugais et espagnol. Deux pays qui, eux, ont concédé de très lourds sacrifices au cours des dernières années. « L’exemple de l’Espagne montre que la politique d’austérité fonctionne », juge le ministre espagnol des Finances, Cristobal Montoro. Décidé à défendre ses choix budgétaires, Michel Sapin compte, plus globalement, expliquer la position de la France en faveur d’une relance économique de la zone euro. « La situation de trop faible croissance et de trop faible inflation dans la zone euro nécessite d’ouvrir un large débat avec nos partenaires européens, plaide-t-on dans l’entourage du ministre. Il y a urgence à agir en utilisant tous les leviers possibles pour ne pas que cette situation s’installe dans la durée. » Le ministre a également prévu de se rendre à Berlin et à Rome d’ici au Conseil européen des chefs d’Etat des 18 et 19 décembre où sera notamment discuté le plan Juncker sur l’investissement en Europe. LIRE AUSSI : Pierre Moscovici : « Il faut combler le plus vite possible le fossé sur l’investissement qui fragilise l’Europe » http://www.lesechos.fr/monde/europe/0203955125344-europe-berlin-hausse-le-ton- contre-paris-sapin-defend-le-choix-de-la-croissance- 1066556.php?4xbxCcyqQO81rIfs.99 5 ft.com Comment Opinion November 20, 2014 7:09 pm Europe’s economic future depends on French reforms Günther Oettinger Paris has already taken some steps. But these have been too few, writes Günther Oettinger ©AFP EU energy commissioner Günther Oettinger The crisis of confidence in the euro – when millions of citizens feared for their savings and virtually the entire economic system was at risk – is over.