PUB-6027 A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY Public Disclosure Authorized THE BAHAMAS Economic Report Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized H ' .,:'f....( il,.,j } i 1- 11 **f - A WORLD BANK COUNTRY STUDY THE BAHAMAS Economic Report The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright ©) 1986 The InternationalBank for Reconstruction and Development/THEWORLD BANK 18I8 H Street, N.W. Washington,D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufacturedin the United States of America First printing June I986 World BankCountry Studies are reports originallyprepared for internal use as part of the continuing analysisby the Bank of the economic and related conditions of its developing membercountries and of its dialogueswith the governments. Some of the reports are publishedinformally with the least possibledelay for the use of governments and the academic, business and financial,and development communities.Thus, the typescripthas not been prepared in accordancewith the proceduresappropriate to fornal printed texts, and the World Bankaccepts no responsibilityfor errors. The publication is suppliedat a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufactureand distribution. The designations employed,the presentationof material,and any maps used in this documentare solely for the convenienceof the reader and do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoeveron the part of the World Bankor is affiliatesconcerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, area, or of its authorities,or concerning the delimitationof its boundariesor national affiliation. The most recent World Bankpublications are describedin the annual spring and fall lists; the continuing research program is described in the annual Abstractsof Current Studies.The latest edition of each is availablefree of charge from the PublicationsSales Unit, Department T, The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W, Washington,D.C. 20433, U.S.A.,or from the EuropeanOffice of the Bank,66 avenue d'lIna, 75116 Paris, France. Libraryof Congress Cataloging-in-PublicationData The Bahamas : economic report. (A World Bank country study) "Derived from an IBERDeconomic mission to the cormonwealthof the Bahamas in May 1985, led by Mr. R.J. Robinson"--Galley. 1. Economic forecasting--Bahamas. 2. Bahamas-- Economic conditions. I. InternationalBank for Reconstructionand Development. II. Series. HC152.B34 1986 330.97296 86-13202 ISBN 0-8213-0785-1 PREFACEAND ABSTRACT This report is derived from an IBRD economic mission to The Commonwealthof The Bahamas in May 1985, led by Mr. R. J. Robinson. The mission consisted of Ms. D. Velasco (IBRD),Ms. N. Pirnia (IBRD), Mr. P. Joyce (IMF) and Mr. D. Davis (consultant). The mission received assistance in the assessment of the technicalassistance needs from the United Nations Development Programme, consisting of Ms. B. McSweeney (UNDP Representativefor The Bahamas), Ms. A. Ebanks (UNDP, Jamaica) and Mr. M. Salzman (UNDP, New York). As is IBRD practice, individualprofiles of technical assistance needs and project plans are not included in red cover reports. Further details on specific technical assistanceneeds may be obtained from UNDP (Jamaica) or from IBRD. This report reviews the recent performanceof The Bahamas economy, and analyses developmentissues and prospects facing The Bahamas. The economy has performed moderatelywell in the early 1980s, recording positive economic growth with no balance of payments problems, and with an improved fiscal position. Much of this good performancecan be attributed to the steady growth in tourist arrivals. The outlook for the rest of the decade is very positive, given the expected continued growth in this sector in response to the projected buoyancy of the US economy. Notwithstandingthe positive recent performanceand outlook, significant development issues face the economy: (i) external vulnerabilityderiving from dependenceon tourism earnings will require continued vigilance by the authorities; (ii) the competitivenessof the economy, and of the tourism sector in particular,will need to be ensured through moderation in wage settlements,and the encouragementof efficiency improvements; (iii) greater attention will need to be paid to the regional distributionof growth, and to the encouragementof growth outside New Providence; (iv) given the expected growth in labor supply, appropriatejob creation policies will be necessary,;and (v) the operating efficiency of the public sector will require continued upgrading. CURRENCYEQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = Bahamian Dollar Since February 1973 B$1.00 = US$1.00 Between December 1971 - February 1973 US$1.00 = B$0.97 Prior to December 1971 B$1.00 = US$1.00 Pago I of 2 pages COUNTRYDATA - THE COIUONW-ALTHOF THE BANANAS AREA POPULATION DENSITY 13.942 km2 0.222 million (end 1983) 16.0 par km2 2 Annual Rato of Growth, 2.35 (frcm 1973 to 1983) 330 per km of orable land POPULATIONCHARACTERISTICS (1983) HEALTH 1978 Crude Birth Rote (per 1,000) 23.8 Population per physician 1459 Crude De th Rate (por 1,000) 5.0 Population por hospital bsd 245 Infant Mortality (per 1.000 live births) 22.7 INCOMEDISTRIBUTION (1977) ACCESSTO ELECTRICITY (1978) S of national Inconmo higheat qulntile 48.4 S of populatlon - urban 90.0 lowest qulntilo 2.5 - rural ACCESSTO PIPED WATER(1976) EDUCATION(1978) Z of population - urban 100.0 Adult literacyrate Z 93.0 - rural 13.0 Prlmry school enrol Imt I 98.5 NUTRITION (1977) Calorie Intake as Z of raqulreants 96.0 Per capita protein Intake 38.3 GNP PER CAPITA In 1984t US$4 26 0a/ GROSSNATIONAL PRODUCTIN 1984 ANNUALRATE OF GROWITHQ, constant prices) US$ Min. _ 1979-83 1984 GNP at Narket Prices 1537.9 100.0 3.0 6.4 Grosa Domatic Invnctmnt 355.5 23.1 18.7 -2.4 Gross Natlonal Savings 239.6 15.6 9.3 2.0 Current Account Baiance 23.6 1.5 Exports of Goods, NFS 1264.3 82.2 4.7 9.8 Importa of Goods. NFS 1072.3 69.7 6.7 6.8 GOWEJif FINANCE ConsolIdated Public Secter Central Oovsrmnnt (e muillion) I of 0P (s millilon) Sofet0 1963 1964 1963 1984 1983 1984 1983 1964 Current Receipts .. .. .. .. 314.0 347.3 20.2 20.4 Curront Expenditure .. .. .. 318A6 342.1 20.5 20.1 Current Surpluc 23.8 69.1 1.5 4.1 -4.6 5.2 -0.3 0.3 Capitol Expenditure* 95.7 49.2 6.2 2.9 19.2 10.4 1.2 0.6 External Finance (net) 6.2 -27.5 0.4 -1.6 . * I/ Atlas Methodelogy not awllabli not appilcable Pap 2 of 2 pape OMIOlITDATA - DOE 011MM.TH OF THEaC Wl MIOff aIT and PRICES IXe lIS IS2 13 1964 Liabilitles to Private Sectr b/ 356.0 3M5 416.9 5XO 553.7 SfA Credit to Public Sector 7 75.0 5.4 2.5 147.4 117.4 kIak Credlt to Private Sectoro 6/ 366.7 443.4 462.4 509.7 534.9 Ipereatg or inex Mars) LiabilIties to Privte Sectr as S ofW 32.5 34.e 33.S 328 31.4 Retail Prica ladX (1971 * lCD) 191.3 212.5 225.4 2344 243.8 A_ml parosainto clasp Ins Oaeral Price iuex 12.1 11.1 6.1 4.1 3.9 B6amcredit to Piulic Sectorw 17.9 45.4 14.7 -20.4 axk redit to Private Sctor . 14.7 8.5 5.7 4.9 WbLE OF PAYISITS 1511 1112 156 1954 (Millions UIW Export of com, IFS S 61.2 103t.3 1153.5 124.3 berto at oeds. IFS S S.7 .9 1005.3 1072.3 ReOrce Cap 71.5 51.4 146.2 172.0 Factor Psannts Int 136.6 114.9 122.8 153.8 _t Traneftra -13.9 -17.7 -10. -14.6 Balanc on Corrent Ao,at 41.2 -34.2 1I.1 23SA 1t OM. OECEMIIIER 31, 1964 Private Capital 104.7 -2.5 -14.7 -26.6 Publlc Debt ltel. grnt 2d.5 Phibic Capitai (not) 71.4 66.4 62 -27.5 Naa4wraated Private Debt Tebla eobtotedirg S OiXeraed C IngeIn Raeres 7.9 13.3 10.1 3M0 DBST i0 RATIOtr0r 151 C1 Pubiic Debt, Olc. gunranted 4.S M-Sar toed Private Debt Tobl outotondieg A Dlabrad. RMTEOF EXOWlE ieIALM 1INDI, latet maoth) (Miliion II, iI IDA 582.00-661 .00 lMdialoraed Outtoadiag Ila. lbdiebu dr7ed a/ Ratle of Oebt Service to Expwto ot bade and Not star Sorvioa. b Operratima at tin omercial banks. t aI fable .nt applirbb TABLE OF CONTENTS Page SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ...... ............................... ..x I. ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ...... I Background ................ 0................................. * I Recent Economic Developments ................... ooooo....oo. 3 II. PUBLIC FINANCES AND ADMINISTRATION ................ oo.. 11 I.ntroduction so ............................o......... ...... ooo... ... .oo 11 CentralGovernment Revenues ... ...... ............... 12 Central Government Expenditures ........... ........... 14 The Non-financial Public Corporations ................. 16 The National Insurance Board ....... .....o 19 III. SECTORAL ISSUES AND DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ..... 21 introductionffshoreBa .. g............... .. ..... ........ 21 Tourism andsFishing. .. .. .. .............. ...... 22 Offshore Banking ........ .. *.*.. ... *..33........26 Manufacturing ........ oo.o*......................................29 Agriculture and Fishing ....ISSUES. .................. 31 cial Sectorso...j ... i.......o.............. so...... 33 Education o.o.. os. .... o...... oso...........................o........33 Health o............................o ............ .o ... o. 33 Housing .............................. oooso... oo..o..o.... ..... 34 IV. ECONOMIC PROSPECTS AND FUTURE ISSUES o.o.............o............................o 36 Baseline Projection Assumption o9oo.o.... ooo.................................. 36 Baseline Projection Results ...... ....... .......... 38 Alternative Scenarios .......... ... .... ... .. 39 Conclusions .........o..................*ooo.*ooo.o .o o.o.............41 THE BAHAMAS TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page ANNEX I: THE TOURISM SECTOR .......... ....................... ...... 42 ANNEX II: THE COMMONWEALTHOF THE BAHAMASAS AN OFFSHORE FINANCIAL CENTER ............ ............. 56 STATISTICAL APPENDIX 74 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Recent Economic Developments i. The economy of The Bahamas has performed moderately well in the early 1980s. The economy is highly dependent on the tourism sector, and its overall performance is largely determinedby the performanceof this sector, as it accounts directly and indirectly for 35% of GDP and 50% of employment. Thus, tourist arrivals have grown every year in the 1980s except 1981, when there was a 10% decline, and GDP growth has mirrored this, averaging 3% a year over the period, with a similar performance expected in 1985.