The 29th Research Conference on Information, Communication, & Internet Policy TPRC 2001 FROM 2G TO 3G – THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL CELLULAR STANDARDS By Audrey N. Selian Edward R. Murrow Center for International Communications Research Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Tufts University September 2001 )URP*WR*7KH(YROXWLRQRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HOOXODU6WDQGDUGV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Prof. Lee McKnight and members of the Murrow Center of Public Diplomacy at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy of Tufts University, for their feedback and suggestions. This document was prepared in association with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in Geneva, Switzerland, and I would like to thank Dr. Tim Kelly, Ms. Lara Srivastava, Mr. Robert Shaw and Mr. Fabio Leite for their valuable guidance and advice in the preparation of this paper. 2 $16HOLDQ TABLE OF CONTENTS: 1 Introduction................................................................................................................................................6 1.1 The Generations of Mobile Networks................................................................................................7 2 A Look Back at GSM...............................................................................................................................10 2.1 GSM Technology .............................................................................................................................10 2.2 The History of GSM.........................................................................................................................11 2.2.1 Conference Des Administrations Europeans des Posts et Telecommunications (CEPT) ........12 2.2.2 The European Commission and the Memorandum of Understanding .....................................13 2.2.3 European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) .....................................................14 2.2.4 The “Frequency Band” Obstacle Course..................................................................................14 2.2.5 The Conclusion of the Interstate Bargain.................................................................................15 2.2.6 The Launch...............................................................................................................................15 2.2.7 The United States and the FCC ................................................................................................16 2.3 The GSM Market .............................................................................................................................16 2.3.1 The GSM Success Story...........................................................................................................16 2.3.2 Future Market Development ....................................................................................................17 2.4 Licensing GSM ................................................................................................................................18 2.4.1 GSM Radio Spectrum ..............................................................................................................19 3 A Look Ahead at IMT-2000.....................................................................................................................19 3.1 From GSM to IMT-2000..................................................................................................................19 3.1.1 HSCSD (High-Speed Circuit Switched Data)..........................................................................22 3.1.2 GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) ....................................................................................22 3.1.3 EDGE, Enhanced Data GSM Environment..............................................................................23 3.2 IMT-2000 Technology .....................................................................................................................25 3.3 The History of IMT-2000.................................................................................................................25 3.4 Laying the Groundwork for 3G Success ..........................................................................................27 3.4.1 Addressing the Need for 3G Spectrum Expansion...................................................................27 3.5 The 3G Market .................................................................................................................................28 3.6 3G Licensing Policies.......................................................................................................................32 3.6.1 The European Experience ........................................................................................................33 3.6.2 The American Experience........................................................................................................35 3.6.3 The Asia-Pacific Experience....................................................................................................37 4 Comparing and Contrasting the Development of GSM and the Road to IMT-2000 ...............................37 4.1 Lessons from GSM that Apply to 3G...............................................................................................38 4.1.1 The Shifting Dynamic of Major Players ..................................................................................38 4.1.2 The Critical Role of Equipment Manufacturing.......................................................................39 4.1.3 Learning from the Numbers .....................................................................................................41 4.1.4 Timeline for Deployment .........................................................................................................42 3 )URP*WR*7KH(YROXWLRQRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO&HOOXODU6WDQGDUGV 4.2 Lessons from GSM that Don’t Apply to 3G ....................................................................................43 4.2.1 A Harmonized Approach to License Allocation ......................................................................43 4.2.2 The Underlying Philosophy of the Markeplace........................................................................44 4.2.3 Intellectual Property Rights (IPRs) and Limitations on Manufacturers...................................44 4.3 Is 3G Unique?...................................................................................................................................46 4.3.1 The Heavy Burden of the 3rd Generation – Consolidation Trends...........................................46 4.3.2 3G Deployment Costs ..............................................................................................................46 5 Conclusion................................................................................................................................................48 6 Appendix:.................................................................................................................................................50 4 $16HOLDQ TABLES AND FIGURES: TABLE 1.1: REGIONAL DOMINANCE OF CURRENT WIRELESS TECHNOLOGY STANDARDS ...........................................8 TABLE 2.1: TIMELINE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF GSM..........................................................................................................12 TABLE 2.2: DIGITAL LICENSE ASSIGNMENT PATTERNS ........................................................................................................19 TABLE 3.1: COMPARATIVE VIEW ON SERVICES/APPLICATIONS .........................................................................................20 TABLE 3.2: DETAILED COMPARISON OF 1ST, 2ND, AND 3RD GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES.......................................21 TABLE 3.3: ECONOMIES WHERE MOBILE PHONES HAVE OVERTAKEN FIXED ONES .....................................................30 TABLE 3.4: SUMMARY FORECAST FOR MOBILE SERVICE IN WESTERN EUROPE (TO 2004)..........................................32 TABLE 3.5: GLOBAL MOBILE COMMERCE REVENUES, 2000 - 2005 (USD MILLIONS).......................................................32 TABLE 4.1: ESTIMATED COST OF GSM AND UMTS NETWORKS ...........................................................................................47 TABLE 6.1: ALLOCATION OF 3G MOBILE LICENCES IN THE EUROPEAN UNION..............................................................50 FIGURE 1.1: THE 4 OPERATIONAL DIGITAL CELLULAR TECHNOLOGIES: DEC ’00 (637 MILLION USERS)...................8 FIGURE 1.2: WORLD GSM CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS TO JUNE 2001 ......................................................................................9 FIGURE 2.1: FORECASTED ADOPTION OF GSM MOBILE PHONES IN WESTERN EUROPE AND THE WORLD..............17 FIGURE 2.2: COMPARISON OF 2G / 2.5G / 3G SUBSCRIBERSHIP IN EUROPE........................................................................18 FIGURE 2.3: FORECASTED SUBSCRIBERS FOR GSM, GPRS, UMTS AND HSCSD SYSTEMS IN EUROPE........................18 FIGURE 3.1: A STEP-BY-STEP TOWARDS IMT-2000 (UMTS) ....................................................................................................21 FIGURE 3.2: FROM GSM TO UMTS: LIKELY PATHS TO 3G ......................................................................................................24 FIGURE 3.3: IMT-2000 TERRESTRIAL RADIO INTERFACES .....................................................................................................27 FIGURE 3.4: VOICE TRAFFIC VS.