HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Isaac Information from NHC Advisory 33B, 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday August 29, 2012 Hurricane Isaac continues to lash New Orleans. Isaac is expected to move over Louisiana today and tomorrow and over southern Arkansas early Friday. Weakening is forecast as Isaac moves over land over the next 48 hours, but dangerous storm surge and flood threats from heavy rains are likely to continue through today and tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Position Relative to 40 miles SSW of New Orleans Speed: (cat. 1 hurricane) Land: Now southwest of New Est. Time & Region: Orleans Louisiana Min Central Pressure: 970 mb Coordinates: 29.5 N, 90.5 W T.S. Force Winds: 175 miles Est. Max Sustained Wind 80 mph Bearing/Speed: NW or 310 degrees at 6 mph Hurricane Force Winds: 60 miles Speed: (cat. 1 hurricane) Forecast Summary Within 24 hours, there is a 12% chance Isaac will remain at hurricane strength (74+ mph winds), a 74% chance Isaac will weaken to a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds), and a 14% chance Isaac will further weaken to tropical depression strength or dissipate (winds below 39 mph). The windfield map – based on the CLP5 forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 1 hurricane strength (74-95 mph winds). The CLP5 – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Isaac by Kinetic Analysis Corp. The combinations of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. Water could reach depths of 6-12 feet in areas of southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi, by 3-6 feet in Alabama and south central Louisiana, and by 2-4 feet in areas along Florida’s panhandle and Apalachee Bay. Tropical storm conditions will continue across the warning area this morning and hurricane conditions will continue to affect portions of southeastern Louisiana. Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 7-14 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches over much of Louisiana, southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama through Friday morning. Rains are expected to increase northward into Arkansas on Thursday with amounts of 3-6 inches expected over southern Arkansas by Friday morning. Isolated tornadoes are possible along the central Gulf Coast region and parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday. Forecast Track for Hurricane Isaac Forecast Windfield and Rain for Hurricane Isaac (National Hurricane Center) (Based on CLP5 at 00:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. Fayetteville Missouri Murfreesboro Knoxville sa Jonesboro Missouri Asheville A Jackson Arrka Tennessee nsa Tennessee North Carolina Fort Smith as 09-01 ahoma Memphis Chattanooga lahoma Memphis Greenville Arkansas Huntsville Little Rock Decatur South Carolina TD ¨¦§759 belowAtlanta 1 in Roswell TS 1 - 3 in ¨¦§20 ¨¦§30 08-31 BirminghamCat 1 3 - 6 in Atlanta TuscaloosaCat 2 6 - 9 in Mississippi CatAlabama 3 9 - 12¨¦§85 in s Mississippi Cat 4 12 - 24 in Georgia Shreveport Monroe Tyler Cat 5 CLP5 FcstTrack ii pp Jackson All Fcst TracksMontgomeryNHC FcstTrack ipip 65 ss ¨¦§ ss i i ! ! Albany ss D 3 s Ï TD Ï Cat3 s 59 i i ¨¦§ Texas Dothan MM 08-30 Louisiana ! ! Mobile ÏS TS Ï4 Cat4 ¨¦§55 Mobile Tallahassee ! ! Pensacola Ï1 Cat1 Ï5 Cat5 Lafayette Baton Rouge Jacksonville ouston Beaumont Baton Rouge Tallahassee Port Arthur !2 New Orleans Ï Cat2 Florida Houston 08-29 Galveston Spring Hill Tampa Ta mp a Sarasota Cape Coral 0250500125 Miles © Copyright 2012 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a re presentation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings A hurricane warning, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area, is in effect for east of Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A hurricane watch, meaning hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area, is in effect for Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana. A tropical storm warning, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, is in effect for the Mississippi-Alabama border to the Destin Florida, and Morgan City to Sabine Pass Texas. A tropical storm watch, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible within the warning area, is in effect east of High Island Texas to just west of Sabine Pass. Storm Surge Estimates Chance of Exceeding a 5 Foot Storm Surge Ninety Percent Chance of Storm Surge Exceedance The map above shows the overall chance that storm surges will be The map above shows storm surge height in feet, above normal tide greater than 5 feet during the next 3 days. For example there is a 90- levels, where there is a 90% chance of exceeding the heights shown. For 100% chance of a storm surge exceeding 5 feet in the dark purple example there is a 90% chance of exceeding a storm surge of 9-11 feet in region southeast of New Orleans. This graphic from the NHC is based the dark green region near New Orleans. This graphic from the NHC is upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from (SLOSH) model runs using the NHC official advisory and account for Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the NHC official advisory and track, size, and intensity uncertainty from historical errors. account for track, size, and intensity uncertainty from historical errors. New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average a 50% chance of additional tropical cyclone formation in the orange remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at August region. 29 is 75% for all hurricanes and 78% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on August 29, 2012 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier Brian Owens 7760 France Avenue South 51 Lime Street Minneapolis, MN 55435 London EC3M 7DQ [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +44 (0)20 3124 7637 Page 2 of 2 .