HOW DO VOTERS DECIDE? A STUDY OF THE DETERMINANTS OF VOTING BEHAVIOR IN GHANA. A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts By RICHARD BOATENG ANTWI B.A, University of Ghana, 2013 2018 Wright State University WRIGHT STATE UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL December 06, 2018 I HEREBY RECOMMEND THAT THE THESIS PREPARED UNDER MY SUPERVISION BY Richard Boateng Antwi ENTITLED How Do Voters Decide? A Study of the Determinants of Voting Behavior in Ghana BE ACCEPTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF Master of Arts. ______________________________ December Green, Ph.D. Thesis Director ______________________________ Laura M. Luehrmann, Ph.D. Director, Master of Arts Program in International and Comparative Politics Committee on Final Examination: ________________________ _______ December Green, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ Carlos E. Costa, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs ___________________________________ A. Lee Hannah, Ph.D. School of Public and International Affairs _______________________ _______ Barry Milligan, Ph.D. Interim Dean of the Graduate School Abstract Antwi, Richard Boateng. M.A., International and Comparative Politics Graduate Program, School of Public and International Affairs, Wright State University, 2018. How Do Voters Decide? A Study of the Determinants of Voting Behavior in Ghana. What factors influence voting behavior in Ghana? This thesis investigates this question using a survey data conducted in four regions in Ghana. A descriptive analyses and logistic regression of the data show that candidate personality and campaign promises are the most important predictors of vote choice. The study further found that ethnic and economic variables are minor features of voting behavior in Ghana: they do not influence how the majority of the electorate make voting decisions. This finding challenges the conventional view on Ghana’s elections that presume that elections are simply an ethnic census. Additionally, the finding suggests that majority of the Ghanaian people are evaluative voters who make voting decisions upon careful assessment of the competence of contesting candidates and campaign promises. Overall, this study draws attention to the importance of personality and pragmatic policies in winning elections. Accordingly, politicians need to be concerned about the public perception of their credibility and image, as well as the policies they bring to the campaign platform. Keywords: Ghana, Voting Behavior, Swing and Core Voters, Voter Choice. iii Table of Contents CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Statement of the Problem and Research Question ........................................................ 3 1.4 Hypothesis .................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Research Design and Methodology .............................................................................. 6 1.5.1 Case Profile ............................................................................................................ 6 1.5.2 Research Methods .................................................................................................. 6 1.6 Significance of the Study .............................................................................................. 8 1.7 Limitations of the Study ............................................................................................... 8 1.8 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER TWO .............................................................................................................. 11 THEORY AND LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................... 11 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 2.1 What is Voting Behavior? ........................................................................................... 11 2.2 Review of the Literature ............................................................................................. 13 2.2.1 The Sociological Model ....................................................................................... 14 2.2.1.1 The Case of Ghana: Ethnic Voting Theory ................................................... 20 2.2.2 The Psychological or Psycho-social Model ......................................................... 21 2.2.2.1 The Case of Ghana: Party Identification, Candidate and Issue Voting ......... 27 2.2.3 The Rational Choice Model ................................................................................. 28 2.2.3.1 The Case of Ghana: Economic Voting Theory ............................................. 35 2.2.4 The Literature on Swing Votes ............................................................................ 36 2.3 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 38 CHAPTER THREE ......................................................................................................... 39 A HISTORICAL OVERVIEW OF ELECTIONS IN GHANA (1951-1992) ................. 39 3.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 39 3.1 The Ethnic Composition of Ghana ............................................................................. 39 iv 3.2 Political Party Traditions in Ghana ............................................................................. 41 3.3 A Brief Political History of Ghana ............................................................................. 46 3.4 The Pre-Independence Elections ................................................................................ 48 3.5 The Elections under the First, Second and Third Republics ....................................... 51 3.6 Summary ..................................................................................................................... 60 CHAPTER FOUR ............................................................................................................ 61 ELECTIONS UNDER THE FOURTH REPUBLIC: 1992 AND BEYOND ................ 61 4.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 61 4.1 The Electoral System under the Fourth Republic ....................................................... 61 4.1.1 The Electoral Commission of Ghana ................................................................... 62 4.1.2 Electoral Reforms Undertaken Since the Founding Elections in 1992 ................ 65 4.2 The Fourth Republican Elections (1992-2016) .......................................................... 68 4.2.1 The 1992 Elections ............................................................................................... 69 4.2.2 The 1996 Elections ............................................................................................... 74 4.2.3 The Elections of 2000 and 2004 ........................................................................... 78 4.2.4 The Election of 2008 and 2012 ............................................................................ 85 4.2.5 The Election of 2016 ............................................................................................ 90 4.3 Analysis of Voting Patterns (1992-2016) ................................................................... 94 CHAPTER FIVE ............................................................................................................. 99 PRESENTATION OF DATA AND FINDINGS ............................................................ 99 5.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 99 5.1 The Demographic Characteristics and Social Affiliations of Respondents ................ 99 5.1.1 Gender .................................................................................................................. 99 5.1.2 Age Distribution ................................................................................................. 100 5.1.3 Level of Education ............................................................................................. 101 5.1.4 Occupational Status ............................................................................................ 103 5.1.5 Linguistic Composition ...................................................................................... 104 5.1.6 Rural and Urban Constituencies ......................................................................... 105 5.2 Political Opinions and Involvement of Respondents ................................................ 106 5.2.1 Attention to Government and Politics ...............................................................