Climate Resilient Development In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Climate Resilient Development In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh Climate Resilient Development In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh Vulnerability and Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Adaptation Assessment This report is prepared under the financial support by theSwissAgency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) for the project Sustainable Civil Societies Initiative toAddress Global Environmental Challenges in Bundelkhand region of India. The objective of the action oriented project was to enhance the adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities in Bundelkhand region, identify strategies for climate resilient development and mainstream climate change in development policy and plans. Authors Ms. Harshita Bisht, Ms. Jyoti Nair, Ms. Rashi Gupta, DevelopmentAlternatives Overall guidance Mr.Anand Kumar, DevelopmentAlternatives Reviewers Dr. Shirish Sinha, SwissAgency for Development and Cooperation Acknowledgment We place on record our gratitude to the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) for providing the financial and institutional support and guidance to this task, Development Alternatives field team for providing field support, local communities of the project villages, local NGOs for their untiring work and enabling us to broaden our understanding of field realities, Environmental Planning and Coordinating Organization (EPCO) for coordinating and providing inputs in the state level workshops. Design and Layout Mr. Kamal , K K Graphics & Printers Ms. Neha Gupta, DevelopmentAlternatives Disclaimer The views, analysis, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the contributors/authors and do not necessarily reflect or can be attributed to the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). information contained herein has been obtained from different secondary and primary sources and deliberations of the consultations/workshops organized by Development Alternatives, which the contributors/authors believe to be reliable and accurate. The contributors/authors, the reviewers and the supporting agency associated with the report are not liable for any unintended errors or omissions, opinions expressed herein. The contents of this report may be used by anyone providing proper acknowledgment Publications in this series: Climate Resilient Development Climate Resilient Development In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh Climate Resilient Development In Bundelkhand Region of Madhya Pradesh Information and Communication Mainstreaming Climate Change Needs for Adaptation Adaptation in Policy and Planning Synthesis Report Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Methodology for Vulnerability Assessment 7 3. Results 13 4 Adaptation Measures for Bundelkhand 35 Annex - Policies & Programmes Related to Adaptation for Bundelkhand 43 1. Introduction In central India, regional climate model projections The approach of transition from a poverty and indicate that there are possible changes in future vulnerability reduction orientation that primarily weather patterns that will significantly affect climate- addresses development deficit in the region to one that sensitive agriculture, water, and health sectors1 . responds to its climate adaptation deficit to promote Development deficit and widespread reliance on climate-resilient development presents significant agriculture as a source of nourishment and income challenge. makes Bundelkhand region particularly vulnerable to changes in the climate. Figure 1: Geographical coverage of the project 1.1. Climate Change in India agriculture, forestry, and fishing2 . Agriculture, on which approximately 70% of the population is The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report and an ever- completely dependent, will be impacted by the growing body of scientific research continue to expected change in predictability and variability in the illuminate the perilous nature of global climate change 3 and the need to take action against its potential impacts. availability of water . Thus, climate change may alter In India, climate change is a particularly serious the distribution and quality of India's natural resources challenge that will significantly impact the Indian economy (and the livelihoods that depend on it) due to a 2 Sharma, S. K. & Chauhan, R., 2011. Climate Change Research high reliance on climate-sensitive sectors such as Initiatives: Indian Network for Climate change assessment. Current Science, 101(3), pp. 308-311. 3 Gosain, A. K., Rao, S. & Arora, A., 2011. Climate change 1 Indo-UK Collaborative Project on Vulnerability and impact assessment of water resources in India. Current Adaptation Assessment of the Madhya Pradesh, 2011 Science, pp. 356-371 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment 1 and adversely affect the livelihood of its people by Environment and Forests projects the following affecting the agricultural productivity and thereby the climate change impacts for India4 : quality of human life. l A3% to 7% increase in summer monsoon rainfall by 2030 as compared to 1970; decreased rainfall In India the most important climatic factor is the Indian during winter and pre-summer periods in all summer monsoon because it plays a critical role in regions except the Himalayan region. sustaining various economic, social and environmental l systems of the country. The current observed climate The frequency of rainy days (2.5+mm) will and projected changes in the country as consolidated by decrease in most parts of the country. the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC l Annual mean surface air temperature will are highlighted below (MoEF, GoI). increase from 1.7°C to 2°C by 2030, with lowest daily minimum and highest daily maximum Temperature temperatures increasing by 1°C to 4°C. The annual mean temperature has shown a warming Potential Impacts at the National Level trend of 0.56°C per hundred years during the period 1901-2007. Accelerated warming has been observed Various studies have been conducted to understand the in the recent period between 1971 and 2007 and is implications of changes in key climate variables in attributed to intense warming caused in the decade of India through projections or scenarios (INCCA, 2010; 1998-2007. Temperatures have increased in the winter NATCOM, 2012). Some of the potential impacts will season by 0.70°C and in the post-monsoon season by adverselyimpact availability of water resources , 0.52°C. Themaximum temperature in the country increased vulnerability of forest areas through expected has shown anincreasing trend of 1.02°C per hundred increase inspecies losses and induced changes in years. The highest annual mean maximum habitat for many speciesand a negative impact on temperatures are observed in the central (Madhya agricultural productivity and in turn food and Pradesh) and north-western (Rajasthan) parts of the livelihood security. country. Theminimum temperature has also shown a warming trendwith a rise in temperatures by 0.12°C Studies by Indian Agricultural Research Institute per hundred years. In the last thirty years this increase (IARI) and others indicate greater expected losses in in minimum temperatures has been more pronounced the Rabi crop. While in certain scenarios some crops with an increase in the temperature of 0.20°C every 10 such as groundnut and chickpea show an increase in years. yields with an increase in temperature and CO2 emissions, the yield of certain crops such as potato Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall could decline. The mean rainfall in the country is 848mm with high Scenarios show that every 1 °C rise in temperature will variability. In a period of 139 years, there were a total of reduce wheat production by 4-5 million tonnes. Small 23 deficient years and 20 excess years. Although no changes in temperature and rainfall will have significant trend in rainfall has been observed on an all significant effects on the quality of fruits, vegetables, India basis, increasing and decreasing trends have tea, coffee, aromatic and medicinal plants, and basmati been observed on a regional basis. Certain extreme rice. Pathogens and insect populations are strongly precipitation trends have been noticed in the country. A dependent upon temperature and humidity, and trend analysis of extreme rainfall received over a day's changes in these parameters may change their period shows that such extreme rainfall is increasing population dynamics. Other impacts on agricultural in many places in India. and related sectors include lower yields from dairy cattle and decline in fish breeding, migration, and While some climatic changes are already beginning to harvests. Global reports indicate a loss of 10-40% in manifest in India, regional climate models indicate crop production by 2100. greater impacts in the future. Using the PRECIS climate model (a regional climate model developed by the Hadley Centre, UK) under the IPCC A1B socio- 4 Kothawale, D. R., Munot,A.A., & Krishna Kumar, K. (2010). economic scenario, a report released by the Ministry of Surface air temperature variability over India during 1901- 2007, and its association with ENSO.Climate Research , 42(2), 89104. 2 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Changes in climate may alter the distribution of Agriculture is pivotal to the state's economy, important vector species (for example, malarial accounting for about 45% of the State Domestic mosquitoes) and may increase the spread of such Product (SDP) and more than