UNION THE OFFICIAL dOURNAL OF CARDIFF TRADES UNION COUNCIL MAY 1992 FREE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO TIME TO CHANGE COURSE? Without doubt the election was a disaster for the Labour Party nationally, as it was for the Labour share of the national vote Liberal Democrats and the SNP. Only in Wales 50% have we anything to celebrate. Labour in- creased its vote, and gained one seat overall, whilst the Blaid gained one seat, but as that 45 was from the Liberal Democrats who also favour a Welsh Assembly and a degree of autonomy for Wales, that was somewhat 40 pyhrric. It remains a truism, that if Wales and Scotland were independent, they would both be Socialist Republics! Close study of the figures indicates that in most constituencies 35 where the Tories gained votes, the Lib-Dems lost votes compared to the previous Alliance vote, but Labour gained votes too. Psephology 30 is a very inexact science because analysis is based on very limited information, but it is 25 likely that the SOP vote which came over from Feb Oct 79 the Tories in 1987, went back where it came 1945 50 51 55 59 64 66 70 74 74 83 87 92 from, whilst the Tory, Labour, and Lib-Oem vote remained essentially the same. Most in politics, and whose motivation is most Michael Foot and Neil Kinnock, or in a desper- people in Britain have solid political opinions, difficult to predict or influence. ate attempt to oust Thatcher. The Lib-Dem and don't change sides easily. Thus all the talk In Britain, since the First World War, Tory vote has probably held very steady at around aboutthe virtues of the campaign, the changes dominated governments have been in power 18%, (in '83 and '87 the figure is confused by in approach, in policies, or in personalities is for 59 years to Labour's 20, despite Labour the SOP vote) except in 1979 when part frequently irrelevant. It is a small minority, the polling more votes than the Tories at each switched to Thatcher to get rid of the Callaghan "floating voter", typically around 10% of the election from 1945 to 1974. Over the last Government, which was painted by the tabloids population, whose mind is not made up, who eighteen years, Labour's share of the vote has as an economic disaster. Little did anyone decide the result. In truth not even all of them continued its decline, dropping steadily from know what was to come! Over the same period decide the result, but only those "floaters" who 38% to around 35%, except in the middle of the Tory vote has risen from a similar 38% to reside in the "Key Marginal" seats. This group, the "Thatcher Years", when part of it switched around 42% now. This is due to two main probably around 2% of the population, are temporarily to the Alliance, either, (according changes in our society. Firstly an increase in likely to be the ones who are least interested to your interpretation), because of dislike of the size of the lower middle class/self em- ployed/upper working class group who per- ceive themselves as middle class and rising. Call them Essex men & women, social climb- ers, or just plain snobs, but these are a group who are workers in the sense that if they stopped working they would have nothing, but they see themselves as mini-capitalists who would benefitfrom Tory policies. It is a triumph of myth over reality, but a triumph none the less. Secondly we have for the first time in Britain a problem of voter de-registration. Despite an increase in population, the elec- South and West Wales toral roll has fallen. This is, of course, as a result of the Poll Tax. As the new Council Tax will give a discount to single householders, Branch sends May Day people will continue to hide off the register in prder to save money, although possibly not in such large numbers. There is clearly a long greetings to all term drift to the Tories, and as we gain in prosperity overall, even though some are badly left behind, this trend is likely to continue. The Trades-U nionists question then that faces us in the broad La- Branch Secretary: John Slater bour movement is what to do next? 1 Bradenham Place, Penarth. Tel: 0222-703539 Basically we have three choices . Cant page two • Thirdly we can embrace some form of DOOMSDAY SCENARIO CONT. There are five organisations who campaign for Proportional Representation, and there are constitutional reform, including PR, locally and • First, we can continue as before. Support many to choose from, but we can only imple- nationally, and they are listed below for those the Labour party, resist the cut.oacks, the ment it if we win under the present system. Up who want to take the debate further: changes inthe law, the destruction of the BBC, until the last days of the campaign it looked as etc., etc .. Campaign even harder and more if we might have a hung parliament, a deal with professionally, (is that possible?) and hope to Campaign for a Welsh Assembly the Lib-Dems, and time to arrive at an answer 55 Alfred Street get even more of our support out on the day. after the election. Now, if we are to take this However, come the next local elections we Roath route, we have to make a pre-election pacV Cardiff CF2 4TZ may have Unitary Authorities rushed in, with a arrangement of some sort in order to make reduced number of representatives and re- the next election a referendum on PR. But we duced powers, and possibly even no right to Cardiff Action for Fair Elections have to be realistic about what this means. 14 Caerleon Road set the level of Council Tax. By the nextgeneral When I last wrote on this issue immediately Mynachdy election the Boundary Commission will have before the last election, what I said was badly Ca~diff CF4 3DR reported, and the Labour Party is likely to face written and unclear, and consequently widely an increased effective Tory majority of around 20 to 25 seats. We may also have no public Charter 88 service broadcasting left, if the BBCs' charter By the next general election Exmouth House is not renewed! At present it takes 42,667 the Boundary Commission 3211 Pine Street votes to elect a Labour MP, 300,144 a Lib- will have·reported, and the LONDON EC1 ROJH Oem, but only 41,811 a Tory. The Boundary 071-833-1988 Commission's task is in theory to make things Labour Party is likely to face fairer, but whilst it does correct some anoma- an increased effective Tory or c/o Rob Humphries lies, the overall effect is to make matters majority of around 20 to 25 38 Springfield Place worse for Labour. Canton seats. CARDIFF CFl 9NZ • Secondly, the Labour party can move even 0222-343308 more towards the centre ground, attack the Lib-Dems hard, and hope to get their support- mis~nterpreted. However the truth remains the same. PR will almost certainly bring about Electoral Reform Society ers to switch across to our side. Personally I 6 Chancel Street feel that most Lib-Dem support is solid and a Lib/lab rather than a Lib/Con coalition, (spend time talking to Lib-Dem workers and London SE1 OUZ loyal. They are not Lib-Dems because they fear Tel 071-928-1622 social ownership or Tony Benn more than the you soon realise that Paddy Ashdown is prob- free market, but because they arrive at poli- ably the only Lib-Oem member who would support the Tories) but it will probably destroy Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform cies similar to ours, of creating a caring PO Box 11 sharing society, from a totally different start- for ever the chance of a majority Labour Government. It is a stark choice, and will bring GUILDFORD ing point. They believe essentially that the Surrey GU1 3QN freedom of the individual can only be achieved many uncertainties. The far right parties may when the basics of life; health, housing, educa- make small gains, as may the far left also, as their supporters leave the main parties to set or c/o Michael Smith tion, transport, etc., are provided by the com- 79 Elan Way . munity, rather than obtained competitively, up shop on their own. The centre tendencies in the Tory and Labour camps could in the Hall Park which would be to the detriment of other Caldicot people. Labour believes these same things fullness of time coalesce into a new SOP type grouping, who knows? The political shape of Gwent NP6 4PZ should be provided to produce basic social 0291424133 justice and equality. Freedom is a by-product. future Governments will be decided by nego- The result is very similar policies, except that tiation between the parties after elections, but Lib-Dem philosophy is more de-centralist, but is that worse than being decided by the 'float- Alex Bird GPMU a different outlook. Lib-Dem support may switch ing voters' as at present? Constitutional re- Atthetime of going to press, the Trades Council had if the campaign is strong enough, but if we form is a big step to take, but every other not debated the election result, so the views ex- country in Europe seems to manage on it. pressed here are solely those of the editor, and not attack them that hard, the electorate may get of the Council itself.