77 Chapter 5 Kim Jong-un’s Economic Policy as a Means to Secure His Regime1 Dongho Jo I. Introduction The observers on the North Korean economy have faced the following three basic questions. Even though these questions are the ones which have been typically asked during the last several decades whenever we try to explain the North Korean economy, it gets much more difficult to answer them than before because fundamental changes have been made and deepened since the Kim Jong-un regime was launched. The first question is how we evaluate the economic condition of North Korea. Of course, assessing the North Korean economic situation has not been easy due to the lack of data and information. But it becomes more difficult recently since we observe conflicting signals and reports concerning the North Korean economy. For instance, all experts were able to agree in the 1990s that the North Korean economic condition was very bad. In the last several years, however, some experts say that the North Korean economy has continued to decline while others insist that it has achieved considerable growth. Then, what is the real picture? The second one is about the responses of the North Korean leadership or economic policies of North Korea. The most remarkable phenomenon of the present North Korean economy is the expansion of markets. The North Korean authority still argues that North Korea is and will be maintaining a socialist planned economic system. However, market activities have been growing rapidly and even official sectors are now dependent on markets. While markets are contributing to economic growth, the economic system itself has been collapsing due to markets. Under these circumstances, what kinds of economic policies does the North Korean leadership pursue? The third question is about the future of the North Korean economy. Kim Jong-un is believed to have already secured political stability. Then, the next task to him should 1 This is an updated version of the author’s paper “The Current Situation and Future Prospects of the North Korean Economy” presented at the 2014 Korea Dialogue Conference on Strengthening North Pacific Cooperation organized by the East-West Center and Korea Institute for International Economic Policy held on July 24-25, 2014 in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. 78 The Kim Jong Un Regime and the Future Security Environment Surrounding the Korean Peninsula be to achieve economic stability because long-term stability of a regime cannot be guaranteed without both political and economic stabilities. Thus, Kim Jong-un has to focus on improving living standards of North Korean people. The economic textbook teaches that increase in inputs and/or increase in production efficiency are inevitable in order to increase outputs and thus North Korean economic policies are surely to go to this direction. Then, what would be the results? This paper seeks to answer these questions. In order to do so, it starts from the assessment of the current economic situation. II. The Current Economic Situation 1. Analysis The North Korean economy has been getting better in recent years. According to the Bank of Korea, an official institution estimating the North Korean economic condition, the North Korean economy has continued to achieve positive growth since the Kim Jong-un regime was launched while it had shown negative growth rates in 2009 and 2010. Figure 1: Economic Growth Rates of North Korea (unit: %) 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 09 10 11 12 13 14 –0.5 –0.5 –1.0 –0.9 –1.5 Source: Bank of Korea, “The Estimation Results on the Economic Growth Rate of North Korea in 2014,” 2015. However, it is very likely that the Bank of Korea underestimates the ‘real’ economic growth rates because the economic activities in market places which have been rapidly growing under the Kim Jong-un’s era are not fully captured in the estimation. Thus, the ‘real’ economic growth rate should be at least 3–5% points higher than the estimates by the Chapter 5 Kim Jong-un’s Economic Policy as a Means to Secure His Regime 79 Bank of Korea if unofficial market activities are included. For instance, Michael Jonathan Green, currently a senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former special assistant to the president for national security affairs and senior director for Asia at the National Security Council, says in his column that the economic growth rate of North Korea in 2015 was 6%.2 In addition, Prof. Dong-il Hyun, president of Research Institute for Northeast Asia at the Jilin University, insists that it was 7% on average during 2012–2015.3 In addition to market activities, there are several more factors which are believed to contribute to positive economic growth in recent years. Most of all, agricultural production has continuously increased since 2010. Agricultural production in 2015 was estimated to be 5.07 million tons, increasing by almost 25% compared to the production in 2010. Table 1: Agricultural Situation of North Korea (unit: million tons) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Demand 5.46 5.34 5.40 5.43 5.37 5.49 Production 4.11 4.25 4.45 4.84 5.03 5.07 Shortage 1.35 1.09 0.95 0.59 0.34 0.42 Source: Ministry of Unification. North Korea’s agricultural production is estimated to have fallen in 2016. FAO reports that this year’s total food production of North Korea has dropped for the first time since 2010 as water scarcity hits the agricultural sector, marking a 9% decrease compared to the production last year. In particular, production of paddy rice, the country’s main staple, dropped by 26% mainly due to poor rains and little availability of water for irrigation.4 But it seems we need more information to make a conclusion regarding the food situation of North Korea. If the estimates by FAO are correct, then the price of food, especially rice, should sharply go up this year. However, the price of rice in North Korea has continued to be stable even in 2016 as shown in <Figure 2>. For example, the price was 4,950 North Korean Won per kilogram 2 The Joongang Ilbo, June 10, 2016. 3 Dong-il Hyun, “Changes and Prospects of the North Korean Economy,” The Korea Exim North Korea Economic Review, Summer, 2016, p.16. 4 http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/412030/icode (accessed June 20, 2016). 80 in June this year, while it was 5,100 North Korean Won in the same month last year. One may explain that import increases of grain including rice have contributed to the stability of the rice price. On the contrary, however, it is reported that North Korea’s The Kim Jong Un Regime and the Future Security Environment Surrounding the Korean Peninsula import of grain has dropped by 80% in the 1 period last year. either unofficial import of grain, such as smuggling, or miscalculation by FAO not taking the increase in productivity into consideration, even if we cannot tell which one is a more convincing explanation due to lack of information. 8 , 7 000 , 5 6 000 , Then the remaining possibility for the stability of rice price would be 5 000 , 4 000 , 3 000 , 2 000 , 1 000 , 000 Source: Daily NK. 0 to the economic growth of North Korea. Especially, there has 2012been a remarkably.1.15 sharp~1. 21 increase in trade with China. For instance, trade volume with China has been breaking the record every year and the volume in 2014 was nearly double that of 2010. Since trade 2012.2.25~3.2 In addition, increase in trade by North Korea since 2010 is believed to be contributing Figure 2: Price of Rice in Pyongyang with China makes up about 90% of North Korea’s total trade and major import items (unit: North Korean Won/1kg of rice) from China have been energy and machinery, they must have exerted a strong influence 2012.5.30~6.5 on the economic performance of North Korea during recent years. Moreover, import of consumer goods from China has also been improving living standards of the North 2012.7.6~7.13 Korean people. 5 2012.10.22~10.29 st The Weekly Chosun 2013.1.2~1.9 , June 6, 2016. quarter this year compared to the same 2013.2.26~3.4 2013.4.25~5.1 2013.7.27~8.2 2013..11.7~11.13 2014.2.11~2.17 2014.4.15~4.21 2014.6.14~6.20 2014.8.6~8.12 2014.10.9~10.15 2014.11.14~11.20 2015.1.1~1.7 2015.4.2~4.8 2015.6.12~6.18 2015.9.1~9.7 2015.12.2~8 2016.2.6~12 2016.4.23~4.29 2016.6.7~6.13 Chapter 5 Kim Jong-un’s Economic Policy as a Means to Secure His Regime 81 Figure 3: Trade of North Korea (unit: bil. US$) 8 7.3 7.6 6.8 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.3 5.9 6 5.6 5.7 4.2 4 3.5 2 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total China Source: KOTRA, The Trend of North Korean Foreign Trade, various years. North Korea’s trade volume slumped 18% in 2015 compared to that in 2014. It was the first decline in six years. Trade with its no. 1 partner China fell by 16% to US$5.7 billion in 2015, explaining most of the decline.