MONITORING, VERIFICATION AND EVALUATION UNIT MVE UNIT AGRICULTURAL POLICY REFORM PROGRAM APRP Sponsored by: Government of Egypt, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation United States Agency for International Development/Cairo Office of Economic Growth, Agricultural Policy Division AVAILABILITY AND QUALITY OF AGRICULTURAL DATA IN EGYPT Morsy A. Fawzy EQI Larry Pope Abt Associates Inc. Yehia M. El-Din Ghazal Amer EQI Prime Contractor: Abt Associates Inc. Subcontractors: Environmental Quality International, Management Systems International USAID Award: 263-C-00-97-00003-00 December 1998 th Project Office: 15 Floor, 7 Nadi El Seid Street, Dokki, Cairo Impact Assessment Telephones: (202) 337-0357, 337-0592, 337-0378 Report No. 4 Fax: (202) 349-9278 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................... iv LIST OF CHARTS ........................................................ vi LIST OF ACRONYMS .....................................................vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................. viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................. ix 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................1 1.1 Agricultural Policy and Statistics ...................................1 1.2 Organizational Structure of Agricultural Data Collection and Publications . 3 1.3 Objectives of the Study ..........................................3 1.4 Outline of the Study .............................................4 2. CRITERIA FOR DATA QUALITY AND AVAILABILITY ......................5 2.1 Types of Data ..................................................5 2.1.1 Time Dimension and Intended use ...........................5 2.1.2 Quantitative vs. Qualitative Data .............................6 2.2 Types of Errors ................................................6 2.2.1 Non-Sampling Errors ......................................6 2.2.2 Sampling Errors ..........................................6 2.2 Non-Response Errors ............................................7 2.3 Criteria For Evaluating Information ................................7 2.3.1 Timeliness ..............................................7 2.3.2 Completeness of Coverage .................................7 2.3.3 Accuracy ...............................................8 2.4 Evaluating Data Quality ..........................................8 2.5 Methods to Improve Data Quality ..................................9 2.5.1 Quality Control ..........................................9 2.5.2 Check Data ..............................................9 3. COLLECTION OF AGRICULTURAL DATA IN EGYPT .......................10 3.1 Structure of Agricultural Data Collection Organizations ...............10 3.2 Description of Data Collection and Estimation Procedures ..............13 3.2.1 Agricultural Census, EAS/MALR ...........................13 3.2.2 Current Agricultural Statistics, EAS/MALR ...................13 3.2.3 Egyptian Survey Authority, MPWWR .......................14 3.2.4 Sampling General Directorate ..............................15 4. METHODOLOGY ......................................................20 4.1 Investigation of Statistical Offices .................................20 4.1.1 Identifying Data Available at Different Administrative Levels .....20 4.1.2 Determining Data Accuracy and Quality ......................21 4.1.3 Investigating Possible Sources and Methods for Collecting Unavailable Data ..................................................21 4.2 Implementation of Field Investigations .............................21 4.2.1 MALR Statistics Office, Governorate Level ...................22 4.2.2 Egyptian Survey Authority Office, Governorate Level ..........22 4.2.3 MALR Statistics Office, District Level .......................22 4.2.4 MALR Village Cooperative Office ..........................23 4.3 Time Series Analysis ...........................................23 4.3.1 Introduction ............................................23 4.3.2 Overview of Time Series Analysis ..........................24 4.3.3 Time Series Analysis in This Study ..........................24 5. FINDINGS: COLLECTION PROCEDURES .................................26 5.1 Results of Team Visits ..........................................26 5.1.1 Village Cooperatives .....................................26 5.1.2 MALR District Level Offices ..............................27 5.1.3 Governorate Level Offices .................................27 5.1.4 General Observations .....................................27 5.2 Data Available and Their Relationship To Data Needs .................29 5.2.1 Existing Data Vs Available Data ............................29 5.2.2 Agricultural Data Collected by MALR .......................29 5.2.3 Data Requirements .......................................30 6. FINDINGS: TIME-SERIES ANALYSES ....................................38 6.1 Introduction ..................................................38 6.2 Modeling Process with Illustrative Examples ........................41 6.3 Area, Yield, Production, and Cost of Production in Behira ..............47 6.3.1 Wheat .................................................47 6.3.2 Rice ..................................................47 6.3.3 Maize .................................................48 6.3.4 Cotton .................................................48 6.3.5 The Time-Series Models of Total Cost of Production ............49 6.4 Area, Yield, Production, and Cost of Production in Dakahlia ............62 6.4.1 Wheat .................................................62 6.4.2 Rice ..................................................62 6.4.3 Maize .................................................62 6.4.4 Cotton .................................................63 6.4.5 The Time Series Models of Total Cost of Production ............63 6.5 Area, Yield, Production, and Cost of Production in Beni Suef ...........75 6.5.1 Wheat .................................................75 6.5.2 Maize .................................................75 6.5.3 Cotton .................................................75 6.5.4 The Time Series Models of Total Cost of Production ............76 6.6 Area, Yield, Production, and Cost of Production in Assiut Governorate . 82 6.6.1 Wheat .................................................82 6.6.2 Maize .................................................82 6.6.3 Cotton .................................................82 ii 6.6.4 The Time Series Models of Total Cost of Production ............83 6.6 General Results of Time Series Analyses for Data Quality and Accuracy . 90 7. FINDINGS: STATISTICAL ANALYSES ...................................93 7.1 Graphical Investigation of Data ...................................93 7.2 Estimates Moving from District to Governorate to Publication (DöGöP) ...........................................................106 7.2.1 Number and Magnitude of Changes ........................106 7.2.2 Test of Paired Differences ................................106 7.2.3 Analysis of Variance ....................................107 7.3 Estimates Moving from Cooperative (Village) to District to Governorate (CöDöG) .................................................118 7.3.1 Number and Magnitude of Changes ........................118 7.3.2 Test of paired differences .................................118 7.3.3 Analysis of Variance ....................................119 7.4 Cost of Production Data ........................................131 7.4.1 Published Data of Total Cost of Production ..................131 7.4.2 Potential improvement of Costs of Production Data Quality .....131 8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................135 8.1 General Conclusions ..........................................135 8.1.1 Operation of Data Collection System .......................135 8.1.2 Data Quality, Availability and Utility .......................136 8.2 Recommendations ............................................137 8.3 Suggested Improvements to Statistical Organizations .................138 8.3.1 Restructuring Statistical Organizations ......................138 8.3.2 Statistical Training Program ..............................139 8.3.3 Development of New Statistical Methods and Sampling Techniques .....................................................143 ANNEX ................................................................144 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 : Effects of Major Reforms on Farmers, Government’s Role and the Need for Statistics ............................................................2 Table 3.1: Sample Sizes of Commodities for Which Crop Cutting Surveys are Conducted ..................................................................16 Table 5.1: Existing Agricultural Data ..........................................31 Table 5.2: Statistics of Use to Producers, Processors, Traders, Decision Makers, Policy Makers, and for Economic and Impact Analysts ...................................35 Table 6.1: Code Numbers of Governorates and Districts ...........................40 Table 6.2: Total Number of Time Series Cases by Governorate ......................40 Table 6.3: Area of Wheat in Behira Governorate .................................49 Table 6.4: Yield of Wheat in Behira Governorate .................................50 Table 6.5: Production of Wheat in Behira Governorate ............................51 Table 6.6: Area of Rice in Behira Governorate ...................................52 Table 6.7: Yield of Rice in Behira Governorate