CONGRESSIONAL PROGRAM America’s Vital Interests in Asia: Trade, Security and Resource Interests in the Pacific April 9-15, 2017 Tokyo, Japan and Seoul, South Korea This project was primarily made possible by a grant from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, USA, with supplemental support from the Asia Foundation, the Democracy Fund, the Ford Foundation, the Heising-Simmons Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the Holthues Family Trust, the Henry Luce Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, Rockefeller Brothers Fund, and the Rockefeller Foundation. Copyright @ 2017 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, NW Washington, DC 20036-1133 Published in the United States of America in 2017 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN 0-89843-666-4 Pub #17/012 America’s Vital Interests in Asia: Trade, Security and Resource Interests in the Pacific April 9-15, 2017 The Aspen Institute Congressional Program Table of Contents Rapporteur’s Summary Dylan Davis .................................................................................................................................................. 3 The Spheres in International Politics and Summit Diplomacy Akihiko Tanaka .......................................................................................................................................... 15 American Security Policy in East Asia Dennis Blair ................................................................................................................................................ 19 Changing Security Climate in East Asia and the U.S.-South Korean Alliance Kim Sung-han ............................................................................................................................................. 25 East Asia Security: China and the U.S. Shen Dingli ................................................................................................................................................. 29 Japan’s Reprocessing Program and the Risk of Global Plutonium Proliferation Taro Kono .................................................................................................................................................. 33 The Economic Dimensions of U.S. Engagement in East Asia Marcus Noland ........................................................................................................................................... 39 The Changing World Trading Environment: A View from East Asia Taeho Bark ................................................................................................................................................. 45 The Future of Economic Cooperation and Conflicts between China and the U.S. He Fan ....................................................................................................................................................... 51 Do We Have a Bright Future for Regional Security? Yukio Okamoto ........................................................................................................................................... 57 Troublesome Governance and Foreign Policy Challenges: A Survey of Korea Sook-Jong Lee ............................................................................................................................................ 61 Domestic Politics and Governance in Japan, South Korea and China: Implications for U.S. Alliance Policy Sheila Smith ............................................................................................................................................... 67 1 Domestic Politics, Nationalism and China’s New Diplomacy Zheng Wang ............................................................................................................................................... 71 Stormy Energy Future and the Role of Sustainable Nuclear Power Nobuo Tanaka ............................................................................................................................................ 77 Can Trump Manage North Korea? No Appeasement for North Korea Christopher Hill ......................................................................................................................................... 97 Coping with the North Korean Nuclear Threat Kim Sung-han ........................................................................................................................................... 101 Trump and North Korea: Reviving the Art of the Deal John Delury .............................................................................................................................................. 103 Conference Participants ............................................................................................................................ 109 Conference Agenda ................................................................................................................................. 115 2 America’s Vital Interests in Asia: Trade, Security & Resources Interests in the Pacific Rapporteur’s Summary Dylan Davis Country Representative, Korea The Asia Foundation The Aspen Institute Congressional Program the center of the table mark the line dividing the conference on “America’s Vital Interests in Korean peninsula. Asia: Trade, Security & Resources Interests in the Pacific” was held April 9-15, 2017 in Tokyo, The conference was exceptionally timely, Japan and Seoul, South Korea. held at a high point in relations between the U.S. and Japan and the U.S. and Korea, respectively, Sixteen members of Congress met with but at the same time, a period when tensions nineteen American and Asian scholars to discuss were palpable in the bilateral relations between the myriad of issues affecting Asian and U.S. Japan and Korea over the burdens of their security, trade, economic, energy and colonial past, and while heightened concerns environmental interests in the region. The about North Korea’s nuclear intentions were delegation met with senior officials in each covered in the news on a daily basis. In this country, including the Prime Minister of Japan, context, Members of Congress sought new Shinzo Abe, and the Foreign Minister of the opportunities to think about security and trade Republic of Korea, Yun Byung-se, as well as interests in East Asia. At one point during the Members of the Japanese Parliament and the conference, one legislator said that the session Korean National Assembly, who joined on trade and economics enabled him to better receptions welcoming the delegation to their understand the politics of trade in Asia and the respective countries. Participants also met with U.S. and how he might promote understanding Acting U.S. Ambassadors in Tokyo and Seoul, of free trade policies in the context of his own and were briefed by senior officials of the 7th district’s dynamics. While the views expressed U.S. Naval Fleet on board the nuclear aircraft during the conference were too diverse to carrier the USS Ronald Reagan. In Korea, U.S. capture in a single report, all agreed that Forces Korea Commander General Vincent Northeast Asia is facing challenges that need to Brooks gave an overview of military be urgently addressed through close cooperation preparedness on the Korean peninsula before the among the U.S., Japan and Korea, and in delegation toured the front lines of the cooperation with China. One member of Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) dividing the Congress emphasized the gravity and difficulty Northern and Southern halves of the Korean of the North Korea situation on the last day of Peninsula, which included an appearance by the conference, saying, “We do not have a lot of North Korean soldiers who peered in through the good options, and those that we do have all windows of the Joint Security Area conference come with serious consequences.” room, where the microphones that run through 3 The Changing Security Climate in East Asia and Implications for U.S. Policy Another scholar touched on a few issues concerning China. Chinese President Xi Jinping In an overview of the changing security just completed his visit to the U.S. The two sides climate in East Asia, three issues are key agreed to take further steps to denuclearize concerning Japan’s engagement in the region: North Korea peacefully and will do more to put 1) North Korea is a major security concern for pressure on North Korea in ways that will make Japan and has been for the past few decades. it more painful if the country continues to Japan is equipped with limited capability to develop missiles. This would in turn help the defend against North Korea’s increasing ballistic two sides to work more closely together. This missile development and is in the process of could be a litmus test of sorts for China and the increasing that capability. U.S. to test cooperation. Still, there is little hope 2) China is a very important economic partner that North Korea will give up its nuclear for Japan. The country is very heavily invested weapons. The scholar mentioned that THAAD in China and the Japanese have welcomed an deployment is unfortunately tearing the China- influx of Chinese tourists into the country in South Korea relationship apart. China has to live recent years, which is helping the Japanese with the deployment of THAAD, although economy. However, along with economic ties, limiting the system to a more limited terminal there are concerns over activities by China in the mode and not in a forward detection mode could