Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Ev... http://ejmas.com/pt/2012pt/ptart_pilianidis_1212.html Physical Training Dec 2012 Our Sponsor, SDKsupplies Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Events in Mediterranean Games Theophilos PILIANIDIS 1, Nikolaos MANTZOURANIS 1, Trasivoulos KYRIAKOULAKIS 1, Michail PROIOS 2, Christos KOTZAMANIDIS 2. 1. Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece 2. Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Abstract The purpose of this study was to record the longitudinal progress of the winners’ performance, as well as to predict the performance of the bronze medal winners in the throwing events in 2013 Mediterranean Games. The recorded performances regarded the first and third medal winners (124 men & 68 women ) in Shot put, Discus throw, Javelin throw and Hammer throw during the 16 Games which are organized till today . The correlation analyses evaluated the intercorrelations in performances via games while the Wilcoxon test assessed the differences in performance between genders. The non-linear regression was implemented for the prediction of the athletes’ performance by using the logarithmic model. The results confirmed that in both male and female gold medal winners’ performance a significant improvement was observed. Furthermore, in the amount of the studied events the men’s throwing performance was significantly better than that of women. T he regression analysis recorded that in the throwing events the prediction accuracy of the men’s performance varies from 57% to 87%. Additionally, the prediction of women’s throwing performance ranged from 56% to 82 %. Conclusively, it was recorded that in the throwing events both male and female winners’ performance improved linearly during the Mediterranean Games. Furthermore, the possibility to predict accurately the performance needed for both male and female athletes to win the bronze medal during the future Mediterranean Games was high. Key words: athletics, technique, gender, logarithmic model. Correspondence to: Associate Professor Pilianidis Theophilos, PhD Democritus University of Thrace Department of Physical Education & Sport Science University Campus 69100, Komotini, Greece Phone & Fax: ++30531039683 Mobile: ++30932472967 E-mail: [email protected] Introduction From the beginning of the last century the sports scientists had already identified the possibility of human performance prediction, especially in Olympic level athletes (Ettema, 1966; Κumar & Rai, 2000 ). Historically, the athletes’ performance prediction timeline was divided in 5 periods. The 1 st was orientated in the first organized International games from 1891 to 1912, the 2 nd period from 1913 to 1 από 7 9/10/2017 2:58 µµ Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Ev... http://ejmas.com/pt/2012pt/ptart_pilianidis_1212.html 1929 which was strongly affected by the 1 st World War, the 3 rd period from 1921 to 1936 (mid War), the 4 th period from 1937 to 1947 which was intensely influenced by the 2 nd World War and the last period from 1948 until today. Comparing the above periods, it was recorded that after the 1 st and 2 nd World Wars the athletes’ performance was negatively affected to a great extent (Foster, James & Haake, 2010). Initially, the prediction models were developed in the individual sports of Athletics and Swimming. The non-linear regression analysis evaluated 61 World records in Athletics and Swimming in a time period of 109 years (from 1900 to 2009) and it predicted that in 7.5 to 10.5 years from now the 61 records will present a plateau without any signs of improvement (Chang & Baek, 2011). The winning performance prediction in any running, jumping, throwing or combined event in an important competition in Athletics could be a useful tool for the coach to design the annual training plan in world-class athletes (Peronnet & Thibault, 1989). In a recent study concerning the Athletics from 1900 to 2007, in nine events (100m, 400m, 1500m, 10000m, Marathon, long jump, high jump, shot put, javelin throw) the evolution of world records in male athletes was double than that of the females in the majority of the studied events (Lippi et. al. 2008). The highest improvement was shown in Shot put and Javelin throw events in both men’s (58.0% & 48.8%) and women’s performance (186.0% & 123.0%). The linear improvements in the Javelin throw were interrupted in the male event in 1984 and in the female in 1999 due to the latest IAFF reconstructed rules in javelin Nowadays, the evaluation and the prediction of throwing performance are based on arithmetic and logarithmic models. Thus, in men’s Discus throw the winning performance in 2001 IAAF World Athletics Championships in Edmonton was predicted to be 78m and in Athens 2004 Olympic Games 79m (Tilinger & Kovar, 2004). Recently, in an evaluation study for the performance progress in Olympic and in Commonwealth Games in Shot put, in Javelin throw, in Hammer throw and in Discus throw it was reported that the athletes’ throwing performance was improved linearly from the first games till the early 70s. From this period till today, the athletes who participated in Olympic and Commonwealth games stabilized or gradually decreased their improvement (Hammond & Bishop, 2008). Because of the fact that the international bibliography has limited reports on performance progress via games of throwing events, the aim of this study was to evaluate in a period of 58 years the winners’ performance progression in throwing events in the Mediterranean Games. Additionally, this study will try to predict the male and female throwers’ performance which is necessary for the participants in the throwing events of the 2013 Mediterranean Games to win the bronze medal. Materials and Methods The evaluated performances regarded the first and third medal winners (124 men & 68 women ) in the throwing events: Shot put, Discus throw, Hammer throw, Javelin throw during the 16 Mediterranean Games which are organized till today. The athletes’ competitive performances were recorded by using the official “Results Data” derived from the International Committee of Mediterranean Games (CIJM). In these games in which 23 counties from Europe, Asia and Africa were participated, the male athletes competed in all throwing events in the 16 Games, from the first held in Alexandria (Egypt) in 1951 until the last organized games in Pescara (Italy) in 2009. The male Hammer throwers participated in 14 games because the event did not exist in the Games program in 1967 and 1993. The female throwers participated for first time in Shot put and Javelin throw in the 1967 Games in Tunis (Tunisia). Since then, they have participated in 10 Games because of an interruption of the above events in the 1971 and 1975 Mediterranean Games. The Discus throw was firstly presented at the women’s throwing event program in 1971 and it is held consequently for 11 Games until today, while the Hammer throw event was firstly introduced in 2001 and it was held only in the last 3 Mediterranean Games (2001 to 2009). Statistical analysis The data normality was checked by using the Van der Waerden’s method, while the variables’ normal distributions were confirmed by the probability P-P plots. Descriptive statistics with exploration was firstly generated for the categorical performance variables. The Pearson's correlation in male and the non-parametric Spearman’s analysis in female were applied in order to measure the degree of association of the variables “Mediterranean Games” and “winners’ performance” in the four (4) throwing events. The statistical design for the winners throwing performances in relation to gender was evaluated by using the Wilcoxon test. The non-linear regression (curve estimation) using the logarithmic model fit was implemented for the prediction of the bronze medal winning performance of the male and female athletes’ in throwing events during the 2013 Mediterranean Games in Mersin (Turkey). All statistical analyses were carried out by employing the SPSS-PASW software, version 18.0 for Windows, ( SPSS, Inc., Chicago, IL ). Results 2 από 7 9/10/2017 2:58 µµ Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Ev... http://ejmas.com/pt/2012pt/ptart_pilianidis_1212.html The exploration statistics showed a gradual improvement in the throwing winning performance in both male and female athletes. The gold medal throwers performance which was recorded during the 16 Mediterranean Games is presented in Table 1. 3 από 7 9/10/2017 2:58 µµ Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Ev... http://ejmas.com/pt/2012pt/ptart_pilianidis_1212.html Table 1. The Mediterranean games host cities and the winners’ performance (mean, median, range) in the throwing events relating to gender. Mediterranean Throwing events Games Shot Discus Hammer throw (m) Javelin throw (m) put throw (m) (m) Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female Alexandria, 1951 15.03 48.49 52.33 65.82 Barcelona, 1955 15.70 52.81 55.14 69.00 Beirut, 1959 16.97 55.02 62.26 74.10 Naples, 1963 17.82 53.96 63.59 77.75 Tunis, 1967 18.01 11.57 57.30 69.02 33.10 Izmir, 1971 20.19 57.64 48.90 68.76 78.04 Algiers, 1975 19.43 61.26 52.34 68.22 74.72 Split, 1979 20.58 16.80 57.96 52.92 69.92 81.08 57.96 Casablanca, 1983 20.05 18.01 62.58 53.70 69.94 79,28 61.62 Latakia, 1987 19.23 15.90 60.94 55.98 74.30 74.78 59.40 Athens, 1991 19.38 17.71 60.10 59.46 75.10 76.04 60.34 Languedoc- 20.22 17.04 60.90 57.16 79.46 60.90 Roussillon, 1993 Bari, 1997 19.54 17.82 61.66 66.18 78.44 89.22 57.32 Tunis, 2001 21.03 17.23 64.40 61.42 78.49 64.59 80.88 62.02 Almeria, 2005 20.26 18.59 63.96 62.10 77.88 71.17 75.20 62.61 Pescara, 2009 20.30 17.77 65.58 61.17 75.92 70.39 79.78 60.97 Mean 18.96 17.86 59.02 61.56 69.30 68.71 76.83 61.86 Median 19.48 17.70 60.52 61.42 69.94 70.39 76.80 62.02 Range 6.00 1.36 17.09 0.93 26.16 6.58 23.40 1.64 4 από 7 9/10/2017 2:58 µµ Longitudinal Evaluation and Prediction of Performance in Throwing Ev..