CRITICAL ISSUES CONFRONTING CHINA PUBLIC LECTURE SERIES 2017-18 WITH GENEROUS SUPPORT FROM THE LEE AND JULIET FOLGER FUND Professor Ezra F. Vogel, co-organizer of the Critical Issues Confronting China seminar series, introduces a speaker in fall 2017. Photo: Lisa Abitol Critical Issues Confronting China is a public weekly seminar series, organized by Professor Ezra F. Vogel, Professor William Hsiao, and Dr. William Overholt, which was inaugurated in September 2013. Made possible with support from the Lee and Juliet Folger Fund, the series is sponsored by the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. The purpose of the series is to consider the complex issues China is presently facing and to look at the range of choices Chinese leaders might consider when responding to the challenges and opportunities they confront. The topics and perspectives have been diverse and wide-ranging, including domestic issues such as urbanization, economic slowdown, management of dissent, environmental damage, and relations with various parts of the world. The series is organized to promote informal exchanges among senior specialists and questions from and discussion with an engaged and committed audience. The summaries presented here are from the fifth year of the seminar series, beginning in September 2017 and ending in April 2018. They were authored by Jin Chen, an Associate in Research at the Fairbank Center. Nick Drake of the Fairbank Center and Holly Angell of the Asia Center provided editorial support. The public events were supported by Holly Angell, Nick Drake, James Evans, Mark Grady, and Tenzin Ngodup. This booklet was designed by James Evans. 1 | CRITICAL ISSUES CONFRONTING CHINA AIM: TO CONSIDER THE COMPLEX ISSUES CHINA IS PRESENTLY FACING AND TO LOOK AT THE RANGE OF CHOICES CHINESE LEADERS MIGHT CONSIDER WHEN RESPONDING TO THESE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES. Professor Deborah Davis speaks at the Fairbank Center’s Critical Issues Confronting China seminar series on ‘China’s Changing Families,’ on February 7, 2018. Photo: Lisa Abitol WednesdaysORVILLE SCHELL | 12:30 THE U.S. AND CHINA: HOW SHOULD CRITICAL Asia Society WE ASSESS THE POLICY OF S020,September CGIS 13, South 2017 “ENGAGEMENT”? ISSUES 1730 Cambridge St. KAISER KUO THIS IS SINO-TAP: MY LIFE AS A CONFRONTING Sinica Podcast/ChinaFile CHINESE ROCK STAR September 20, 2017 ORVILLE SCHELL AsiaMARY Society GALLAGHER THE PROGRESSION OF REPRESSION: SeptemberUniversity 13, of 2017 Michigan ONLINE CENSORSHIP AND PHYSICAL September 27, 2017 REPRESSION IN CHINA KAISER KUO CHINA SinicaJEFFREY Podcast/ChinaFile BADER CHINA POLICY UNDER TRUMP SeptemberBrookings 20, Institution 2017 October 4, 2017 PUBLIC LECTURE SERIES MARY GALLAGHER UniversityCHRISTINE of Michigan WONG BEHIND THE HEADLINES: REBUILDING SeptemberUniversity 27, of 2017 Melbourne FISCAL FOUNDATIONS FOR XI October 11, 2017 JINPING’S GOVERNANCE JEFFREY BADER BrookingsWINNIE Institution YIP CHINA’S COMPLEX HEALTHCARE OctoberHarvard 4. 2017T.H. Chan School of REFORM Public Health CHRISTINEOctober 18, 2017WONG University of Melbourne OctoberRICHARD 11, 2017 MCGREGOR ASIA’S RECKONING: CHINA, JAPAN, Formerly The Financial Times AND THE FATE OF U.S. POWER IN THE WINNIEOctober YIP25, 2017 PACIFIC CENTURY Harvard T.H. Chan School of PublicDAVID Health RANK GLOBAL LEADERSHIP AND ITS October 18, 2017 Formerly U.S. Embassy, Beijing DISCONTENTS IN CHINA AND THE November 1, 2017 RICHARD MCGREGOR UNITED STATES Formerly The Financial Times THE RISE OF XI JINPING OctoberRODERICK 25, 2017 MACFARQUHAR Harvard University November 14, 2017 DAVID RANK Formerly U.S. Embassy, Beijing NovemberRICHARD 1, 2017MADSEN HAPPINESS IN CHINA: DEFINING, University of California, San SEEKING, BEING FRUSTRATED Diego RICHARDNovember MADSEN15, 2017 University of California, San Diego November 15, 2017 MARK GILLETTE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS FOR A MORE U.S. Pacific Command MARK GILLETTE ASSERTIVE CHINA U.S.November Pacific Command 29, 2017 November 29, 2017 MEG RITHMIRE STATE-BUSINESS RELATIONS UNDER XI With generous MEGHarvard RITHMIRE Business School JINPING: THE END OF AN ERA? support from the HarvardDecember Business 6, 2017 School Lee and Juliet December 6, 2017 Folger Fund KEVIN O’BRIEN CHINA’S DISAFFECTED INSIDERS OPEN TO THE PUBLIC KEVINUniversity O’BRIEN of California, UniversityBerkeley of California, Berkeley 2 | CRITICAL ISSUES CONFRONTING CHINA DecemberDecember 13, 13, 2017 2017 CRITICAL CRITICAL ISSUES ISSUES CONFRONTING CONFRONTING CHINA CHINA SEMINAR SERIES PUBLIC LECTURE SERIES THE U.S. AND CHINA HOW SHOULD WE ASSESS THE POLICY OF “ENGAGEMENT”? CHINA POLICY ORVILLE UNDER TRUMP SCHELL Arthur Ross Director, Center on U.S.-China Relations Asia Society JEFFREY BADER Wednesday Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton September 13, 2017 China Center, Brookings Institution 12:30pm - 2pm Wednesday S020 Belfer Case Study Room October 4, 2017 CGIS South Building 12:30pm - 2pm 1730 Cambridge Street S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South, 1730 Cambridge St. With generous support from the Lee and Juliet Folger Fund CRITICAL CRITICAL CRITICAL ISSUES ISSUES ISSUES CONFRONTING CONFRONTING CONFRONTING CHINA CHINA CHINA SEMINAR SERIES SEMINAR SERIES SEMINAR SERIES BEHIND THE HEADLINES REBUILDING FISCAL ASIA’S FOUNDATIONS FOR XI CHINA’S COMPLEX JINPING’S GOVERNANCE HEALTHCARE RECKONING CHINA, JAPAN, AND THE REFORM FATE OF U.S. POWER IN THE PACIFIC CENTURY FALL 2017 FALL WINNIE YIP RICHARD CHRISTINE WONG Professor of Global Health Policy MCGREGGOR Centre for Contemporary Chinese and Economics, Harvard T.H. Chan Studies, University of Melbourne Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton School of Public Health China Center, Brookings Institution Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday October 11, 2017 October 18, 2017 October 25, 2017 12:30pm - 2pm 12:30pm - 2pm 12:30pm - 2pm S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South, 1730 Cambridge St. S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South, 1730 Cambridge St. S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South, 1730 Cambridge St. RODERICK CRITICAL CRITICAL MACFARQUHAR ISSUES ISSUES Harvard University CONFRONTING CONFRONTING Tuesday November 14, 2017 1pm - 3pm CHINA CHINA S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South 1730 Cambridge St. SEMINAR SERIES SEMINAR SERIES STATE- BUSINESS RELATIONS UNDER XI JINPING THE END OF AN ERA? MEG RITHMIRE F. Warren McFarlan Associate Professor of Business of Administration SEMINARHarvard Business SERIES School | 3 THE RISE OF Wednesday December 6, 2017 12:30pm - 2pm XI JINPING S020 Belfer Rm, CGIS South, 1730 Cambridge St. CRITICAL ISSUES DEBORAH DAVIS CHINA’S CHANGING FAMILIES Yale University CONFRONTING February 7, 2018 LYLE GOLDSTEIN MEETING CHINA HALFWAY: THE U.S. Naval War College FUTURE OF THE KOREAN PENNINSULA February 21, 2017 AND BEYOND CHINA DAVID DOLLAR CHALLENGES TO CHINA’S ECONOMY AT Brookings Institution HOME AND ABROAD February 28, 2018 PUBLIC LECTURE SERIES BILAHARI KAUSIKAN U.S.-CHINA COMPETITION FOR Ministry of Foreign Affairs, INFLUENCE IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Singapore March 7, 2018 KISHORE MAHBUBANI IS THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT National University of LEGITIMATE? Singapore March 21, 2018 THOMAS GOLD AN ‘OLD YOUTH’ LOOKS AT CHINESE University of California at YOUTH Berkeley March 29, 2018 DWIGHT PERKINS HOW TO MEASURE CHINA’S ECONOMIC Harvard University REFORM April 4, 2018 DIANA FU MOBILIZING WITHOUT THE MASSES University of Toronto April 11, 2018 EDWARD A. CUNNINGHAM ELITE PHILANTHROPY IN THE U.S. AND Harvard Kennedy School CHINA April 18, 2018 WU XINBO MANAGING GROWING AND EXPANDING Institue of International COMPEITION BETWEEN CHINA AND Studies, Fudan University THE U.S. April 25, 2018 DAVID SHAMBAUGH POWER SHIFT? AMERICA AND CHINA George Washington University IN SOUTHEAST ASIA May 2, 2018 SPRING 2018 THE U.S. AND CHINA - HOW SHOULD 1950s, did indeed advocate using American influence through peaceful means as a way to undermine communist regimes WE ASSESS THE POLICY OF and hasten the day when countries like China would become “ENGAGEMENT?” more law-based, tolerant, and democratic. After Deng Xiaoping took the helm of the CCP in 1978, Schell says, China did experience a period of intellectual and Dr. Orville Schell political openness, as well as a liberalization of its markets. Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China However, this liberalization turned out to be relatively short- Relations, Asia Society lived. American hopes that China was “heading in the right September 13, 2017 direction” were shattered by the Chinese government’s crackdown against democracy movement protesters on June 4, 1989. After the Berlin Wall fell, American political scientist Francis Fukuyama published his celebrated and controversial Ever since President Richard Nixon’s groundbreaking book, The End of History and the Last Man. Even President visit to China in 1972, the U.S. has adopted a policy of Clinton suggested that authoritarian regimes like China were engagement toward China. Now, both China and the U.S. “on the wrong side of history.” are at an inflection point where, according to Dr. Orville In retrospect, Schell suggests that we ask, “Whose Schell, Arthur Ross Director of the Center on U.S.-China history is it?” In his view, what has been happening in China Relations at the Asia Society in New York City, we should over the past three decades illustrates the somewhat naive re-examine the assumptions of a U.S. foreign policy that has Western presumption that its current model represents the perceived “engagement” as leading to convergence rather ultimate destination of history and that this will lead ineluctably than divergence. Schell has approached this task from both to an eventual convergence between even