Model Design Plan for BMC Activity-Based Model final report prepared for Baltimore Metropolitan Council prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. September 27, 2013 www.camsys.com final draft report Model Design Plan for BMC Activity-Based Model prepared for Baltimore Metropolitan Council prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Hampden Lane, Suite 800 Bethesda, MD 20814 date January 2014 Model Design Plan for BMC Activity-Based Model Table of Contents 1.0 Overview .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Overall Model Structure ............................................................................ 1-2 1.2 TourCast Structure ..................................................................................... 1-5 1.3 TourCast Components ............................................................................... 1-6 2.0 Discrete Choice Models ..................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Dependent Variables .................................................................................. 2-1 Quantitative Dependent Variables ........................................................... 2-1 Qualitative Dependent Variables ............................................................. 2-2 Categorical Dependent Variables ........................................................ 2-2 Non-Categorical Dependent Variables ............................................... 2-3 2.2 Logit Models ................................................................................................ 2-3 Multinomial Logit Model .......................................................................... 2-5 Nested Logit Model .................................................................................... 2-6 Ordered Response Logit Model ................................................................ 2-8 3.0 Data Requirements ............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1 Networks/Level of Service Variables ...................................................... 3-1 Time Periods ................................................................................................ 3-1 Highway Network and Skims .................................................................. 3-1 Transit Skims ............................................................................................... 3-2 Nonmotorized Skims ................................................................................. 3-3 3.2 Impedance Measures .................................................................................. 3-4 Highway Travel Time ................................................................................ 3-4 Travel Cost and Values-of-Time ............................................................... 3-4 Distance ........................................................................................................ 3-5 Transit Impedance ...................................................................................... 3-5 Non-Motorized Impedance ....................................................................... 3-8 3.3 Zone/Land Use Data ................................................................................. 3-9 3.4 Survey Data for Estimation and Validation .......................................... 3-11 Transit On-Board Survey ......................................................................... 3-15 3.5 Other Data ................................................................................................. 3-16 Regional Air Passenger Survey............................................................... 3-16 4.0 Accessibility Measures ...................................................................................... 4-1 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i 8858.011 Table of Contents, continued 5.0 Population Synthesizer ...................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Methodology ............................................................................................... 5-1 Iterative Proportional Fitting Procedures ............................................... 5-2 Evolution of Population ............................................................................. 5-3 5.2 Updates to PopGen ..................................................................................... 5-4 6.0 Long Term Choice Models ................................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Regular Work Location Model ................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Regular School Location Model ................................................................ 6-1 6.3 Vehicle Availability Model ........................................................................ 6-2 6.4 Transit Pass Ownership model ................................................................. 6-3 6.5 E-ZPass Transponder Ownership Model ................................................ 6-4 7.0 Daily Activity Pattern Models .......................................................................... 7-1 7.1 Daily Activity Pattern ................................................................................ 7-2 Inputs to the Model .................................................................................... 7-5 Outputs from the Model ............................................................................ 7-6 7.2 School Escorting Model ............................................................................. 7-6 Inputs to the Model .................................................................................... 7-8 Outputs from the Model ............................................................................ 7-8 7.3 Joint Travel .................................................................................................. 7-9 Discussion/Concepts ................................................................................. 7-9 Modeling Approach ................................................................................... 7-9 Inputs to the Joint Tour Generation Model ........................................... 7-11 Outputs from the Joint Tour Generation Model (for each household) ................................................................................................. 7-12 Inputs to the Participation Model .......................................................... 7-12 7.4 Non-Mandatory Tour Generation .......................................................... 7-12 Inputs to the Model .................................................................................. 7-13 Outputs from the model .......................................................................... 7-13 8.0 Tour Level Models ............................................................................................ 8-14 8.1 Work Tour Destination Choice ............................................................... 8-14 Estimation Cases ....................................................................................... 8-14 Model Structure ........................................................................................ 8-14 Explanatory Variables .............................................................................. 8-14 8.2 Work-Based Subtour Generation............................................................ 8-15 Estimation Cases ....................................................................................... 8-15 Model Structure ........................................................................................ 8-15 ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 8858.011 Model Design Plan for BMC Activity-Based Model 8.3 Work Tour Mode Choice ......................................................................... 8-16 Alternatives ............................................................................................... 8-16 Estimation Cases ....................................................................................... 8-18 Model Structure ........................................................................................ 8-18 Model Segmentation ................................................................................ 8-18 Explanatory Variables .............................................................................. 8-18 8.4 Work and School Tour Time-of-Day Choice ........................................ 8-20 Alternatives ............................................................................................... 8-22 Availability of Alternatives ..................................................................... 8-22 Estimation Cases ....................................................................................... 8-22 Model Structure ........................................................................................ 8-22 Model Segmentation ................................................................................ 8-22 Model Variables ........................................................................................ 8-23 8.5 School Mode Choice ................................................................................. 8-24 8.6 Non-Mandatory Tour Destination, Mode And Time-Of-Day Choice ......................................................................................................... 8-25 Destination Choice Models ..................................................................... 8-25