, Lq. r,. Docommil Inman 11000. 059 10: SO 012 179 - AUTHOR: . Maas, John D. CurriculUm. TITLE . ruture Studies;in the K-12 INSTITUTIOrz ERIC.Clearingbouse for Social StuAiesOocial Science Bducation Boulder, Colo.: gRIC Clearinghcu on . Counseleng and Personnelp.Services Inn Arbo , Mich. , SPONS AGENCY National In't. of Edication (DRE11). Washirgton,, D6C.. PUB DATE BO A CONTRACT k A00-75=0605: 40-78-0006 NYTE 1011i: AVAILABLE fROM SociAl Science Education Consortium,,Inc., .855, Broadway, Boulder, CO 80302 ($8.95) , ,i EbAS'PRIGE. -KW/P0.5 R1-14,e?.ostMe4N...... ., ..- - '.'".."'"- ' nr.'?' , DESCR/PTORS Ann6titted Bibliograpnies:.' *CdreiculumDevelopment': *Decision Making: Elementary .Secondary Education; t',10 *Futures (of Society): Global Approash: , *Interdisciplinary App;oach: tanguhge Arts; . *Prediction: Publid Policy': Sciences; Sccial Studies; Systems Analysis: Teaching guides IDENTLFIERS "Information Analysis Prodicts . , 4 lk ABSTEACIt This guide is designed to help.'elementary And xecondary school teachers and curriculumdevelopdrs plan units on the future. It is presented infi4e sections. Section I ditscusses.the "Origins of the modern futures movement ind.the conceptsof future studies, time dimension§, global approach,self-fdlfilling and . self-defeating forecasts,. and types of tuturesorientations. Section -, /I examines human futures in terms of values,knowledge, technology, and social issues. Section II/ presentsmethods of forecasting the future: genius forecasting, characterized by,thecreativity, I. analysise.and intuitiveness of novelists andscientists; trend .. extrapolation, the extension of present and historical patternsinto the fut..6r0; consensus of experts on a particularissuie: simulation; cross-impact matrix analyses which chart possible futureeventi and their influence .on other events: scenarios,deCision trees,d'and. ..' pictorial representatilis of the potential resuiltA'cf alternative approaches to cruciar decisions; and sstems analysis for uSe in OUblic policy decisidne.-"Section TV pr videssuggestiOns%for energy,. ,, curriculum,plinning, inclpding topicsin communication, ,' family life,food, health, values, transportation work, international *pairs, and educailon. Examplesolordnit'formatsare 't also provided. The domument concludesWith,atmotated bibliogViphies of general readings for the.teachet andcurriculum develOper, t specific futures topics, ma future.s!t*dies urricula.. WI' e 4 a ***************44*************************************************** '4 ReprOd4ctions suppied by EDPS'arethq best their can bemide * 4he Originaldocument. * *****************.*****4***************** " 0 . "-. V.SLOSPANTAIIINTOPMOWN, NAT1011m. INITIWUTIIOP . , . IIINICATIOM 4 TH)s obcumINT ,. Dytito HAS NM Otago. I . ONACTLY AS TI11 PINSON ISCSIVII0 !Film , ON 01110ANIkAtION ON940 IT.roINTS0P OiGIM. .0 STATIC) 00 View *II NOT NIIICISSARII.VOPINIONS , , 5SNT OFFICIAL NATIONA1. UPON* NOUCA/ ION ISISTITUTN Of POSITION ONPOLICY . .'.!.PERMISSION ! TO MATERIALHAS MINREPRODUCETHIS 0.-GRANTEDBY . 0.o 1. 4 TO,THE ' EDUCATIONAL INFORMATION RESOURCES CENTER (ERIC)." Futvre studios T' In the-K-12 (urrkplum 71 , .4 by Johnp,as 0 , ERIC Counseling and Personnel Services Clearinghouse University'of Michigan. Ann Arbor, Michigan ERIC Clearinghouse for Social Studies/Social Science Education ,Social Science Education Consortiumh -'1oulder, colPrado 1980 I : ORDERING INFORMATION ,. This putilication isavailaille from: . Social Science Education Consortium; Inc.. 855 Broadway 'Boulder, lolorado 8D302 ASSN 0-89994-245,8 Prige: $8.95 4 o 'V . r 7 . .T7' LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING IN PUBLICATIONDATA Haas, John D Future studies inthe K 12 curriculum. Bibliography: p. 1. Forecasting--Study and teaching. I.. Title. CB158.H28 375'.001, .79-28708, ISBN 0-89994-245-8 C. A Pr. froM;the National This Publication wasprepared withf funding ent,of Health, Education, Instituteof Education,U.S. Depar -78-0005 and 400-78-0006. and Welfare .undercontract nos. 40 do not.necessarily ----The opinionsexpressed in this rep rt f NIE or HEW: reflect the postttons0 policies tv, . 4, PREFACE One of t s.faced by teithers and curriculumdevelopers in such or. broad fieldS as lan uage:aris,'science, and social studies T.hoWto incorp- orate thtO these already crowdedcurricula .neW ttmely topics andcrucial :current social isSues.- Probably'the dilemMawill always be 'present, since: the curricuium ts-consiantly-inastate' Ofdynamic equilikoriuM,between the . forces of,fliinuiq arid thane. Perhaps all curriCular subjects shOUld incl,udeifboth traditionaltopiCSand.currenttogiti,-th*Old .04 the%newv-the esoteric and the relevant. /In advocatinga place forfUture.studiestn'the curriculwn,' I;do not'have i -mind any magic-modelor special slot. A widest beginning ts all thatone can expect: a few lessons,a short unit, acourse here and there;'an interested and enterprising teacheror coordinator in this schoolor that district. Monumental changes may-not be possible inAMerican public education, but in- filtration strategies by individualt and small iroupscan be succestful.. This it how,the futurei movement athieved itsbeginnings, ind also how future Studjes emerged in Schools and colleges. Perhaps grand designs should be .. suspect. ' Many claims.can be and have been made for theinclusion of future studies in the curriculum. _Fiveare particularly persuasive for me: 1. Because children anci youthOlavethe greatest portion of the future available ta-them. 2. Because the time continuum is incomplete without thefuture to extend the pastond present. 3.1ecaust citizens.neea to be participants indecisions that affect- their Collective future'. 4..BecaUse individuals needto.envisiontheir.personal goals as moti- viiional spurs to. action and achievement. 5. Because'we all need to perceive the generations.otourspecies nft yet born in order to be stewards forthem. , , . .. ,, . 1 . a . .., . , ...- This monograph was wrttten for:teachers and turrtculum.developers,who: 4. /have some interest in,planning.units'andcourses on the future: ,Since:the / study of the future As:multi-disCiplinarY. ittnature, the units andcourses .1 Might be'im:any sUbject,.but are prObably most-appropriate inlanguage-ars, : ;' ',Science, orlbtial studies. The should know,..hoWever; that this : \- ,author's.background4 is malnly'in socialstudies. Further, the reader ShOuld- .be aware that this is neither a.step-by-steb curriCulumpriMer nor a-col» . lection of responses to the question, "Whatdo I do Monday?" The volume was written to accomplish two goals: MUprovides brieirtitrOduCtion tO the field Of futurolosit (ePeciallY'humansbcial - futUret), which occupies almost three7fourths of thebooklet; -and (2) to : Offer some suggestions for teaching future studie4 in elementary and sec-.. 2 i ondary'schools, including potential topics andcourse and unit formats. The: monograph ends with threepibliographies that Shduld be useful,to readers) ,, who wish to pursue various topics in more depth. , A final caveat! Tho41 I. am.nota professional futurist,I do haye a preference for the Transformationalist point of viewas Contrasted with that of the Extrapolationtst, which is to say Ftend toagree with those futurists who see the need.to abandon (or at least to modify) those values and assumptions of Western industrialized nations that have brought these societiesto the brink of disaster and that threaten the future existence ofour spectes. I am gravely alarmed, yet hopeful for the needed transformations in culture and consciousness. This is not the dominant view among futurists. t I r o- - Preface . T * 0 s ... I n tro d uc ti o n . * . '.0rigins.of Modern futures-Movement.. , '. Some Key FutUres..Concepts - ---The FuturesOtlit .--The Time dimension.. , 4 Ps. n 'P I -I 3 4. 3 .44he'GI obal': Concept--.4.- . I. ..4 .. :,) ..... , .. ...The COnCept 0# Planning. , . .. .. 5t " ..Self-FUlfilling and Self-Defeating Forecasts. 6 . .* ..Typei-ofyUture Orientations .... .6 ; .1 - Human. Futures ,. 15 ,. I, -- The Domain ofyalues :' . ... .i; . ; :. ... , . 1 6 , , .. : ii The. Dome i n .of -Knowl edge:. ".... , v. e*.. .. , v 23 1 4 , The Oomaip of Technology 2 The-Domain of Social Isiues 30 , , 'Probing the Future- ,. 35 , I of forecasting pm Future , 35 . --Genius Forecasting % , 36 , , . --Trend Extrapolation . 36 .--COnsensus MethOdt 38 --Simulation-Techniques . --Cross-Impact.Matrix Analysii . $ 39 /- 7Scenarids. ." . ...: .. % 43 --Decision Trees 45 --Systems Analysis 45 i. , 48, The Futu're in Ihe.Curriculum . CurriculuM DecisiOn,-. 50 'Futures Categories and Topics 51 Learning Objectives, for a Future-Oriented Curriculum . 55 Educational,Goelsforthe Future . ... 56 Futures it the Elementary School 61 Futures in the SecondarySChool f "7-".;51," 4« .Thrle Selected:81blio graphies ,,, .0 4 0 ; .;,/ .Brief Sasjc Bib iogr4phy on. the Future.......... , A Selected 81-bliography'.on Futures Topio ... 76 Ftiture Studies CurriculUm Bibliography. .,.., .. 82 . 88 Refererices. ... ..... .. .) .. ... 4. '4 ; '0 k iv Now theret ,one outetandingimportant fact regarding ceshiP" Earth, and that is that no instruotto okcame with it.... Thus, because ,the')Instructibn manual was missing we are/earning how we safelycan anticipate the consequenceof anincreasing number of alternative ways of extending outi I satisfactory survival awl growth.m-both physiCal and metaphysical. --Ful 1 er, R. B. Operating.manual for spaceship..earth. New .York": Pocket Books, 1970,:pp..47-48-.-. Time, said St. 'Augustine, isa three- fold present: the .present