TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices A report for Defra June 2008 Issue 1 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices A report for Defra June 2008 Client reference: Report reference: D5175 - R1 Issue 1 This document has been prepared by Risk Solutions in connection with a contract to supply goods and/or services and is submitted only on the basis of strict confidentiality. The contents must not be disclosed to third parties other than in accordance with the terms of the contract. Risk Solutions is a trading name of Risksol Consulting Ltd. © Risksol Consulting Ltd 2008 Risk Solutions 59-60 Russell Square London WC1B 4HP United Kingdom ℡ 0870 850 4889 0870 850 4895 www.risksol.co.uk TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Consultees and references 3 3 Work Package 1: Impacts 6 3.1 Climate change 6 3.2 Impacts and adaptation 17 4 Work Package 2: Emissions pathways 25 4.1 Emissions 26 4.2 Concentrations 28 4.3 Overshoot 30 5 Work Package 3: Policy options and technological measures 32 5.1 Global and Regional studies 33 5.2 Sectors 34 5.3 Geo-engineering options 39 5.4 Policy instruments 40 6 Work Package 4: Long term targets 44 6.1 Setting targets 45 6.2 Decision-support approaches 48 6.3 Facilitating agreement 54 6.4 Implications of targets 54 7 Work Package 5: Behavioural Aspects 56 7.1 Behaviour of individuals 56 7.2 Communication and dialogue with individuals 58 7.3 Behaviour of business 60 7.4 National government and local authorities 61 7.5 International perspectives 61 7.6 Wider perspectives 62 7.7 Research questions 62 8 Bibliography 66 8.1 Work Packages 1 and 2 66 8.2 Work Packages 3 and 4 67 8.3 Work Packages 5 68 iii TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 1 INTRODUCTION Defra are considering the development of a comprehensive, multifaceted research framework on the technical aspects of the stabilisation of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. The aim of the proposed research framework is to bring together and develop the evidence that is required to form policy related to agreeing and achieving a long-term stabilisation goal. This includes scientific and economic evidence related to the following work packages: 1. Impacts of climate change 2. Emissions pathways and concentrations of greenhouse gasses 3. Policy options and technological measures 4. Long term targets 5. Behavioural perspectives on climate change The work packages are broadly related as shown in the figure: emissions pathways (WP2) How would GHG emissions have to change now and in the future to achieve different stabilisation levels? policy options and Impacts (WP1) technological measures (WP3) How does stabilisation level How can target levels be achieved and at affect the climate and human what cost? welfare? long term targets (WP4) At what level should targets be set to achieve the optimal balance between costs of mitigation and the risks of climate change? behavioural perspectives (WP5) How will individual and institutional beliefs and valuations help or hinder efforts to achieve targets? Risk Solutions supported by an expert panel was appointed to scope the proposed research framework. The expert panel is drawn from a number of institutions renowned for research in climate change including the Met Office Hadley Centre, the University of Cambridge, the University of Cardiff and the University of Leeds (see further details in Section 2 of these appendices). Scoping the research programmes required identifying where the critical research gaps are relevant to Defra’s need and developing these into possible research work packages. To understand where key uncertainties and gaps in the research lie we interviewed policy and research stakeholders, reviewed key secondary literature, ran a workshop of researchers to review and develop findings further and also held a separate meeting on economics issues. 1 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 The key results and conclusions are presented in the main report. In the appendices (this report) we have summarised the information we have gathered under each work package. The appendices therefore provide a statement of our understanding of the gaps and uncertainties. Section 2 lists the main publications included in the review, the expert panel, and the policy makers and researchers interviewed. Sections 3 - 7 presents the results for each work package area. Section 8 presents a bibliography of useful references relating to each work package area. We have included in this report references to the source of information to provide an audit trail. P references refer to points raised in policy interviews and R references to points raised in Researcher interviews or by the experts on the project expert panel who reviewed the appendices. Points raised have not been attributed in this report to individual interviewees, the P and R numbers do not correspond to the order in the tables in Appendix 2. The references to documents do refer to the numbered references given in the table in Appendix 2. 2 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 2 CONSULTEES AND REFERENCES Name Organisation Policy consultees Molly Anderson Environment Agency Keith Brierley Environment Agency Adrian Butt Defra David Curran BERR Ben Day HMT Chris Dodwell Defra James Dyer Defra Paul Gilham Defra Nick Grout Government Office for Science, supporting the CSA Claire Hawley Defra Graham Floater Stern team Aditi Maheshwari DfID Jeremy Martin Defra Brian Morris BERR Steven Muirs Office of Climate Change Frances Raynor FCO Hannah Ryder Defra Chris Sear Defra Chris Taylor DfID David Warrilow Defra Bob Watson Defra Roger Worth Dept. of Transport Researcher consultees Prof Neil Adger University of East Anglia / Tyndall Nigel Arnell Walker Institute Dr Richard Betts Met Office Hadley Centre Dr Tom Downing Stockholm Environment Institute, Oxford Centre Dr Michel van Elzen MNP Netherlands Prof Michael Grubb Carbon Trust and Imperial College Debbie Hemming CEOSA Defra and Met Office Hadley Centre Prof Sir Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute and Chairman Met Office SAC Prof Tim Jickells University of East Anglia Diana Liverman Environmental Change Institute, Oxford Karsten Neuhoff Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge Vicky Pope Met Office Hadley Centre Colin Prentice QUEST Dr David Reay University of Edinburgh Dr Gavin Schmidt NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies Dr Emma Tompkins University of Leeds Dr Rachel Warren Tyndall Centre Chris West UK Climate Impacts Programme Dr Detlef van Vuuren MNP Netherlands 3 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 Workshop attendees (7 March 2008) Name Organisation Syndicate Olivier Boucher Met Office WP 3 & 4 David Frame University of Oxford WP 3 & 4 Joanna House Bristol University WP 3 & 4 Chris Huntingford CEH Wallingford WP 1 & 2 Tim Jickells University of East Anglia WP 1 & 2 James Kopka Defra CCE WP 3 & 4 Jason Lowe Met Office Hadley Centre WP 1 & 2 Kathy Maskell Walker Institute WP 5 Maria Noguer Walker Institute WP 1 & 2 Jean Palutikof IPCC WP 1 & 2 Nick Pidgeon Cardiff University WP 5 Alexa Spence Cardiff University WP 5 Debbie Hemming Defra CEOSA WP 5 Chris Sear Defra CEOSA WP 3 & 4 Jo Thorpe Defra CEOSA WP 1 & 2 Tony Quigley Independent for Risk Solutions All Ian Dunbar Risk Solutions WP 1 & 2 Richard Wheldon Risk Solutions WP 5 Helen Wilkinson Risk Solutions WP 3 & 4 WP3/4 Economists meeting attendees (18 March 2008) Name Organisation Hannah Ryder ICC/CCE, Defra James Kopka ICC/CCE, Defra Jim Penman CEOSA, Defra Stephen Prichard OCC, Defra Helen Wilkinson Risk Solutions Project expert panel Name Organisation Prof Piers Forster University of Leeds Dr Jean Palutikof IPCC WG II / Met Office Dr Jason Lowe Met Office Hadley Centre Dr Terry Barker University of Cambridge Prof Nick Pidgeon Cardiff University Dr Alexa Spence Cardiff University Tony Quigley Independent 4 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 The following references were used as the initial source of information on gaps and uncertainties in the research. Additional references are presented in the technical appendices that follow. References 1. IPPC Assessment Report 4, Working Group 1 2. IPPC Assessment Report 4, Working Group 2 3. IPPC Assessment Report 4, Working Group 3 4. The Stern Report 5. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change 6. A strategic assessment of scientific and behavioural perspectives on ‘dangerous’ climate change (Tyndall Centre Technical Report No. 28, June 2005) 7. Dangerous Climate Change: The Role for Risk Research (Introduction to special issue of Risk Analysis, 2005) 8. Oppenheimer et al, Science 14 September 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5844, pp. 1505 – 1506 9. National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, US Military Advisory Board 10. Reducing the Social and Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Natural Catastrophies: Insurance solutions and public-private partnerships. CEA Insurers of Europe 11. Climate Change: Everyone's business. A report from the CBI Climate Change task force 5 TASGC Scoping Study - Appendices Issue 1 3 WORK PACKAGE 1: IMPACTS The research gaps and uncertainties relating to WP1 have been discussed under two main headings: • Climate change, and • Impacts and adaptation. The figure illustrates the main topics examined under the three areas and the relationship with other work packages. WP1: IMPACTS GHG and aerosol levels vs time (rate and stabilisation level) WP2 forcing mechanisms (role of cloud cover, water triggers/thresholds/feedbacks vapour, aerosols,…) (carbon cycle, natural methane,…) climate changes (temperature, wind, precipitation, circulations,…) abrupt/irreversible