FUEL ECONOMY IN MAJOR CAR MARKETS: TECHNOLOGY AND POLICY DRIVERS 2005-2017 Working Paper 19 This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/igo/ . You are free to copy and redistribute the material, provided the use is for non-commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution - Please cite the work as follows: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2019, (Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets: Technology and Policy Drivers 2005-2017). Licence: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO for all parts of the work except chapters 4 and Annex B, and International Energy Agency (IEA)/International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), 2019, (Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets: Technology and Policy Drivers 2005-2017). Licence: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO for chapters 4 and Annex B of the work. Third-party content—the OECD/IEA and ICCT do not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. Therefore, neither the OECD, the IEA, nor ICCT warrant that the use of any third-party owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets Technology and Policy Drivers 2005-2017 Acknowledgements This publication was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks of the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the direction of Mechthild Wörsdörfer and the guidance of Timur Gül. Pierpaolo Cazzola co-ordinated the project. The report was prepared in collaboration with the International Council on Clean Page | 1 Transportation (ICCT), who developed the sections on compliance and enforcement under the co-ordination of Zifei Yang. The structure of this report, the methodological choices, the selection of indicators and their analysis were jointly developed by Pierpaolo Cazzola, Sacha Scheffer, Leonardo Paoli, Matteo Craglia, Uwe Tietge and Zifei Yang. Leonardo Paoli and Matteo Craglia led the development of the IEA database update underlying this analysis. Uwe Tietge and Zifei Yang led the drafting of the compliance and enforcement section. Renske Schuitmaker, Hugo Signollet and Jacopo Tattini provided valuable support, most notably for the country reports. Bertrand Sadin assisted with the graphic design. Representatives of the Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) partner organisations reviewed the manuscript, including: Zifei Yang of ICCT, Stephen Perkins of the International Transport Forum, Sheila Watson and Richard Clarke of the FIA Foundation, Bert Fabian of the United Nations Environment Program and Lew Fulton of the Institute for Transportation Studies at University of California, Davis. Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report. They include: Marine Gorner, Jacob Teter, Jacopo Tattini, Christophe Barret and Apostolos Petropoulos of the IEA; Christina Victoriano (Ministry of Energy Chile); Andrew Giallonardo (Environment an Climate Change Canada); Ichiro Gonda (NGK NTK); Christine Rousselle (University of Orleans); Kaoru Horie and Yuichiro Tanabe (Honda); Lina J. Kindermann (Volkswagen); Paul Miles (Sandia National Laboratory); Philip Lenart (ExxonMobil); Samsun Remzi Can (Jülich Research Centre); Sara Arab (Natural Resources Canada); Sonja Munnix (Netherlands Enterprise Agency - RVO); Thierry Spiess (Natural Resources Canada); Yasuhiro Horikawa (Ministry of Economics, Trade and Industry Japan); Julio Vassallo (Secretariat of Energy and Mines Argentina) and Yali Zheng (Society of Automotive Engineers China). Debra Justus was the primary editor of this report. The authors would also like to thank the IEA Communications and Digital Office, in particular Astrid Dumond and Therese Walsh, for their assistance in production and editing. The FIA Foundation provided funding for this work. Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets Technology and Policy Drivers 2005-2017 Table of Contents Key findings ................................................................................................................ 4 Market status of new light-duty vehicles ....................................................................................... 4 Drivers of recent fuel economy trends ........................................................................................... 5 Page | 2 Links between vehicle efficiency and other attributes to prices .................................................... 7 The role of policy ............................................................................................................................ 7 Focus on electrification ................................................................................................................... 8 Real-world fuel economy gap ......................................................................................................... 9 Looking ahead: Policy recommendations ..................................................................................... 10 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 11 Scope .......................................................................................................................................... 12 1. Status of light-duty vehicle fuel economy .......................................................... 13 Global light-duty vehicle market .................................................................................................. 13 Status in 2017 .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Developments since 2005 ........................................................................................................................ 14 LDV fuel consumption ................................................................................................................... 15 Status in 2017 .......................................................................................................................................... 15 Fuel economy developments since 2005 ................................................................................................. 17 Prospects for fuel economy developments to 2030 ................................................................................. 22 2. Drivers of LDV fuel economy.............................................................................. 25 Vehicle size segments ................................................................................................................... 27 Vehicle powertrain technology ..................................................................................................... 30 Vehicle power ............................................................................................................................... 33 Engine displacement ..................................................................................................................... 35 Vehicle weight .............................................................................................................................. 37 Vehicle footprint ........................................................................................................................... 39 Fuel saving technology deployment: Lessons learned ................................................................. 41 Relationship between fuel economy and vehicle purchase price ................................................ 43 3. Focus on powertrain electrification ................................................................... 50 Market structure and key attributes of electrified vehicles ......................................................... 51 Market structure...................................................................................................................................... 51 Power rating ............................................................................................................................................ 52 Weight distribution .................................................................................................................................. 53 Effect of EV attributes on fuel economy ....................................................................................... 54 Contribution of electrified vehicles to fuel economy improvements ............................................. 55 4. Gap between tested values and real driving fuel economy ................................. 57 Real driving fuel economy for conventional vehicles ................................................................... 57 Tested versus real driving fuel economy .................................................................................................. 57 What is widening the gap? ...................................................................................................................... 58 Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets Technology