POLITICAL REPORT POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 14, Issue 10 • November 2018 IN THIS ISSUE: Views on the Issues, Donald Trump, and More (pp. 1–5) POLITICALHow Groups Have Voted Over Time (pp. 6–9) REPORT Election 2018: What Voters Said Voters delivered a split verdict on November 6, with Democrats regaining the House and Republicans holding the Senate. On many issues shown on this page and the next one, such as Donald Trump’s immigration policies, the effects of his trade and tax policies, stricter gun control measures, and the Russia investigation, there were sharp differences between those who voted for Democratic and Republican House candidates. Both sets of voters agreed that the health carePOLITIC system needs major changes. AL REPORT Responses of those who voted for Responses of those who voted for Democratic House candidate (Responses of all voters) Republican House candidate Most important issue facing the country 59% Health care (41%) 21% 10 Immigration (23%) 39 14 The economy (22%) 30 14 Gun policy (10%) 7 The US health care system needs 75% Major changes (69%) 63% 20 Minor changes (24%) 29 3 No changes at all (4%) 5 Donald Trump’s immigration policies are 82% Too tough (46%) 8% 4 Not tough enough (17%) 30 8 About right (33%) 60 Condition of the nation’s economy 49% Excellent/Good (68%) 90% 48 Not so good/Poor (31%) 9 Do you support or oppose stricter gun control measures? 81% Support (59%) 30% 15 Oppose (37%) 65 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll. (Continued on the next page) AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org (Continued from the previous page) Responses of those who voted for Responses of those who voted for Democratic House candidate (Responses of all voters) Republican House candidate What should the Supreme Court do about Roe v. Wade, the 1973 decision that made abortion legal? 85% Keep it as is (66%) 44% 9 Overturn it (25%) 43 Effect of Trump’s trade policies on the economy in your area 4% Helped (25%) 51% 50 Hurt (29%) 5 37 No impact (37%) 37 Effect of the tax laws passed last year on your family’s financial situation 8% Helped (29%) 53% 35 Hurt (22%) 7 52 No impact (45%) 35 Investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election is mostly 69% Justified (41%) 12% 26 Politically motivated (54%) 83 Has the government done enough to protect the election from foreign interference? 19% Yes (38%) 60% 70 No (50%) 26 Which concerns you more about today’s election? People who should not be able 14% to vote will cast ballots (36%) 63% People who should be able to vote will be prevented 79 from voting (53%) 22 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll. AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow Editor: Eleanor O’Neil Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar Design: Claude Aubert Michael Barone, Resident Fellow Intern: Jackie Clemence The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s]. AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 AP VoteCast surveyed people leading up to and on Election Day who said they intended to vote or had voted. Like the exit poll, the AP VoteCast survey found that health care topped the list of important issues facing the country, followed by immigration and the economy. Here, we look at what voters told AP VoteCast about their views on those and other issues. How they voted . Dem. Rep. Most important issue facing the country Health care 26% 74% 23% Immigration 23 20 78 The economy and jobs 19 37 59 Gun policy 8 80 17 The environment 7 86 10 Terrorism 6 39 58 Foreign policy 5 64 34 Taxes 4 48 48 Abortion 2 19 79 Views on Affordable Care Act/Obamacare Would like lawmakers to: Repeal the law entirely 25% 8% 90% Repeal parts of the law 27 31 66 Leave the law as is 13 79 18 Expand the law 34 89 8 Immigration policy—immigrants living in US illegally Would like illegal immigrants to be: Offered a chance to apply for legal status 69% 64% 32% Deported to the country they came from 30 19 79 US-Mexico border wall Strongly favor 31% 9% 90% Somewhat favor 17 25 71 Somewhat oppose 13 64 32 Strongly oppose 39 90 7 Condition of national economy Excellent/Good 66% 37% 61% Not so good/Poor 33 78 18 Views of gun laws Should be more strict 61% 72% 26% Should be less strict 8 20 77 Should be kept as they are 30 17 80 Concerns over effects of climate change Very/Somewhat concerned 70% 66% 32% Not too/Not at all concerned 29 13 85 Opinion of 2017 tax law Approve strongly 18% 8% 91% Approve somewhat 31 25 73 Disapprove somewhat 24 74 22 Disapprove strongly 24 92 6 Source: AP VoteCast, a new national survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News and the Associated Press that aims to provide an alternative to the exit polls. The survey was conducted online and by telephone from October 29 to November 6. The responses shown in this report are those of people who said they intended to vote or had voted in the midterms. Read more about the AP VoteCast survey: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/votecast-methodology. AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 The Presidential Factor In recent midterm elections, more voters have told exit pollsters that one reason for their vote was to express support for or opposition to a president than gave those responses in the past. Twenty-six percent of 2018 voters said one reason for their vote was to express support for Trump, 38 percent to express opposition to Trump, and 33 percent to express support for Trump. Nearly 4 in 10 voters in House races wante to impeach Donald Trump. Q: Was one reason for your vote for Congress today to express support for ________, to express opposition to _________, or _________ was not a factor? One reason for vote for Congress was . To express support To express opposition President was for the president to the president not a factor George H. W. Bush 1990 19% 15% 62% Bill Clinton 1994* 17 28 55 1998 18 20 62 George W. Bush 2002 37 18 45 2006 22 36 40 Barack Obama 2010* 23 31 38 2014* 19 33 45 Donald Trump 2018 exit poll* 26 38 33 Note: *Question wording was “your vote for US House.” In the 2018 AP VoteCast survey of people who said they voted or intended to vote, the results were nearly identical to the exit poll results: 26 percent said one reason for their vote was to express support for Trump, 38 percent to express opposition to Trump, and 35 percent said Trump was not a factor. Source: National Election Pool exit polls. Q: How do you feel about the way Donald Trump is handling his job . ? Strongly approve 31% Somewhat approve 14 Somewhat disapprove 8 Strongly disapprove 46 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll. Q: Should Congress impeach Donald Trump and remove him from office? Yes 39% No 56 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll. AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation In the exit poll, 43 percent of voters supported Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, while 47 percent opposed it. Republicans and Democrats were mirror images of one another in their vote. They also asked a question about how important his confirmation was in seven states with Senators who were thought to be vulnerable. In North Dakota, Montana, and Florida, majorities said their Senator’s vote was a minor factor or not a factor at all. In Nevada, a solid majority, 57 percent said Dean Heller’s vote was the most important or an important factor. Q: How do you feel about Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court? Responses of those who voted for Responses of those who voted for Democratic House candidate (Responses of all voters) Republican House candidate 10% Support (43%) 84% 79 Oppose (47%) 10 Source: 2018 National Election Pool exit poll. Q: Thinking about voting in this midterm election, how important to you was the debate over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court? How they voted . Dem. Rep. Debate over Kavanaugh’s confirmation Very important 48% 56% 43% Somewhat important 27 50 47 Not very important 17 41 56 Not at all important 9 34 62 Source: AP VoteCast conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox New and the Associated Press. Q: In your vote for the Senate, was ________ vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court . The most important factor/ A minor factor/ An important factor Not a factor at all Responses of voters in Missouri (McCaskill’s) 49% 46% Indiana (Donnelly’s) 50 42 North Dakota (Heitkamp’s) 42 53 Montana (Tester’s) 47 51 Florida (Nelson’s) 39 54 Q: In your vote for the Senate, was _________ vote in favor of Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court .