Knowledge and Skills for Life Education and Skills: Results from PISA 2000 © Crown copyright 2002 Louisa Blackwell September 2003 Kevin Lynch Jillian Smith Peter Goldblatt Longitudinal Study 1971–2001: Completeness of Census Linkage Series LS no. 10 London: Offi ce for National Statistics i Knowledge and Skills for Life Education and Skills: Results from PISA 2000 © Crown copyright 2002 © Crown copyright 2003 A National Statistics Publication Published with the permission of the Controller of National Statistics are produced to high professional Her Majesty’s Stationery Offi ce (HMSO). stand ards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance re views to ensure that they meet customer ISBN 1 85774 557 4 needs. They are produced free from any political in ter fer ence. Applications for reproduction should be submitted to HMSO under HMSO’s Class Licence: www.clickanduse.hmso.uk Alternatively applications can be made in writing to: HMSO Licensing Division St. Clement’s House 2–16 Colegate Norwich NR3 1BQ Contact points For enquiries about this publication, E-mail: [email protected] For general enquiries, contact the National Statistics Customer Enquiry Centre on 0845 601 3034 (minicom: 01633 812399) E-mail: [email protected] Fax: 01633 652747 Letters: Room 1.001, Government Buildings, Cardiff Road, Newport NP10 8XG You can also fi nd National Statistics on the internet at www.statistics.gov.uk About the Offi ce for National Statistics The Offi ce for National Statistics (ONS) is the government agency responsible for compiling, analysing and disseminating many of the United King dom’s eco nom ic, social and demographic statistics, includ ing the retail prices index, trade fi gures and labour market data, as well as the periodic census of the popu la tion and health statistics. The Direc tor of ONS is also the National Stat is ti cian and the Regis trar Gen er al for England and Wales, and the agency that ad min is ters the registration of births, marriag es and deaths there. ii Longitudinal Study 1971- 2001: Completeness of Census linkage Contents Summary xi 1. Introduction 1 2. Data and methods 2 2.1 The Longitudinal Study sample 1971-2001 2 2.2 Provisional 2001 data 2 3. Accounting for individuals in the LS sample at each Census 8 3.1 Tracing and linkage outcomes 1981, 1991 and 2001 8 3.2 Demographic profiles of those found and not accounted for 11 4. Individuals in the 1991 Census sample who could not be accounted for in the 2001 Census sample 15 4.1 Linkage of LS members who were found and traced in 1991 15 4.2 Geographic variation in the percentages of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 20 4.3 The effect that 1991 marital status has on LS members’ chances of being found in 2001 23 4.4 The effect of household circumstances in 1991 on LS members’ chances of being found in 2001 23 4.5 The effect of country of birth on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 25 4.6 The effect of 1991 ethnic group on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 26 4.7 The effect of tenure in 1991 on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 27 4.8 The effect of highest qualifications held in 1991 on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 28 4.9 The effect of economic position in 1991 on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 29 4.10 The effect of social class in 1991 on the percentage of LS members who were found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001 30 4.11 High linkage failure London boroughs: comparisons with the England and Wales average 31 iii 5. Children born in the 1990s who could not be accounted for in the 2001 Census sample 37 5.1 Linkage of LS members who were born over the 1990s 37 5.2 Geographic variation in the linkage of 1990s births 37 5.3 Variations in the linkage of 1990s births by parents’ age at the birth 39 5.4 Variations in the linkage of 1990s births by registration type 40 5.5 The combined effects of age and registration type on linkage rates 41 5.6 Variations in the linkage of 1990s births by parents’ social class 42 5.7 Variations in the linkage of 1990s births by parents’ country of birth 43 6. Immigrants and re-entrants to NHSCR in the 1990s who could not be accounted for in the 2001 Census sample 45 6.1 The effect of year of entry to NHSCR on linkage failure rates 45 6.2 The effect of immigrants’ age on 2001 linkage failure rates 46 7. Accounting for shortfalls in the 1991 and 2001 LS Census samples 50 7.1 Linkage failure in 1991 and 2001, after adjusting for under-enumeration 51 7.2 Linkage failure in 1991 and 2001, after adjusting for cumulative losses from the LS, estimated at levels observed between 1971 and 1981 57 7.3 LS linkage failure, after adjusting both for cumulative losses from the LS and Census under-enumeration 59 7.4 LS linkage failure in 1991, adjusted for cumulative losses from the LS and by estimating under-enumeration in 1991, using 2001 Census rebased population estimates for 1991 59 7.5 Summary 63 8. Conclusions 64 iv Appendices Appendix 1 LS members found in 1991 and not recorded as having died or embarked by 2001, by county and local authority 66 Appendix 2 LS members born between the 1991 Census and up to the end of 1995 who were not accounted for in 2001, by county and local authority 76 Appendix 3 LS immigration, the International Passenger Survey and Total International Migration compared 86 Appendix 4 Modelling LS attrition at 1971/81 attrition rates 90 Addendum Multiple enumerations at 2001 Census/LS link 95 v List of Tables Table 2.1 The LS sample in terms of tracing and linkage in 2001 5 Table 2.2 The LS sample in terms of tracing and linkage in 1991 6 Table 2.3 The LS sample in terms of tracing and linkage in 1981 7 Table 3.1 Number and percentage of traced LS members found in the previous decade who were not accounted for at census: 2001, 1991 and 1981 9 Table 3.2 Number and percentage of traced LS members not accounted for at census according to where first identified during the previous decade : 2001, 1991 and 1981 10 Table 4.1 Traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by age and sex 16 Table 4.2 Traced LS members found in 1981 but not accounted for in 1991, by age and sex 17 Table 4.3 Traced LS members found in 1971 but not accounted for in 1981, by age and sex 18 Table 4.4 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by the county of their usual residence in 1991 20 Table 4.5 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by the London borough of their usual residence in 1991 21 Table 4.6 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by 1991 marital status and sex 23 Table 4.7 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by household circumstances in 1991 and sex 24 Table 4.8 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by country of birth 25 Table 4.9 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by ethnic group in 1991 26 Table 4.10 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by ethnic group and sex 27 Table 4.11 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by tenure in 1991 28 Table 4.12 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by highest qualifications in 1991 29 Table 4.13 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by economic position in 1991 and sex 30 Table 4.14 Percentage of traced LS members found in 1991 but not accounted for in 2001, by social class in 1991 and sex 31 Table 4.15 Percentage of traced LS members not accounted for in 2001 in England and Wales and in the London boroughs with linkage failure rates of over 25 per cent, by age and sex 32 vi Table 4.16 Percentage of traced LS members not accounted for in 2001 in England and Wales and in the London boroughs with linkage failure rates of over 25 per cent, by household circumstances 34 Table 4.17 Percentage of traced LS members not accounted for in 2001 in England and Wales and in the London boroughs with linkage failure rates of over 25 per cent, by ethnic group and sex 36 Table 5.1 Percentage of LS members born between the 1991 Census and up to the end of 1995 who were not accounted for in 2001, by their mother’s county of usual residence at the time of the birth 37 Table 5.2 Percentage of LS members born between the 1991 Census and up to the end of 1995 who were not accounted for in 2001, by their mother’s London borough of usual residence at the time of the birth 38 Table 5.3 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by mother’s age 39 Table 5.4 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by father’s age 40 Table 5.5 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by registration type 40 Table 5.6 1990s births not recorded as having died or embarked by 2001, by registration type and the mother’s age 41 Table 5.7 The effects of the mother’s age and registration type on the percentage of 1990s births not accounted for in 2001 42 Table 5.8 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by father’s social class 42 Table 5.9 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by mother’s social class 43 Table 5.10 1990s births not accounted for in 2001, by mother’s country of birth 44 Table 5.11 1990s births not accounted for in 2001,