7. Delta Options and Alternatives “We must dare to think ‘unthinkable’ thoughts. We must learn to explore all the options and possibilities that confront us in a complex and rapidly changing world. We must learn to welcome and not to fear the voices of dissent. We must dare to think about ‘unthinkable things’ because when things become unthinkable, think- ing stops and action becomes mindless.” J. William Fulbright, March 27, 1964 As we saw in Chapter 2, alternatives for managing the Delta have been widely discussed from technical, economic, regulatory, and political perspectives for over a century. Over time, management objectives have evolved. Following the initial focus on flood control for reclaimed Delta islands in the late 1880s, the primary goals of the large water projects built between the 1930s and 1970s were salinity control for in-Delta agriculture and water supply for farmers and urban areas to the south and west of the Delta. Environmental concerns, particularly for the health of key Delta fish species, moved to prominence in the 1970s, and by the early 1990s they led to the creation of the CALFED process. Some of the earliest examinations of management alternatives were the most thoughtful and in-depth, driven by salinity intrusion problems that resulted from greater urban and agricultural use of the Delta itself and increased upstream diversions (Jackson and Paterson, 1977). These studies, mostly conducted in the 1920s and early 1930s, focused almost exclusively on two approaches to salinity management: physical seawater barriers and “hydraulic” barriers, which would regulate net Delta outflow from reservoir releases to keep the Delta fresh (Table 7.1). These earliest examinations consisted of multiple volumes of detailed and probing technical and economic studies (Young, 1929; Matthew, 1931a, 1931b), and they were accompanied by the kind of intense political and policy debates that still characterize Delta discussions. In the 1950s and 1960s, a much more diverse range of approaches was considered; however, the depth of their technical and economic examination was more limited (Jackson and Paterson, 1977). The same could be said of the CALFED investigations 129 Table 7.1 History of Major Delta Alternatives Studied Year Delta Alternatives 1848– Private and Reclamation District Development 1930s Channelizing and leveeing islands with federal navigation improvements 1931 California Water Plan, 1930 Various downstream seawater barriers Hydraulic barrier—net Delta outflow of 3,000–5,000 cfsa 1955 Board of Consultants Six downstream seawater barrier plans Upstream barriers and control structures for through-Delta conveyance (Biemond Plan) 1960 California Department of Water Resources Seawater barrier at Chipps Island Four through-Delta conveyance and barrier plans, variants on the Biemond Plan 1963 California Department of Water Resources Seawater barrier at Chipps Island Peripheral canal (22,000 cfs capacity) Hydraulic barrier “Typical Alternative Delta Water Project”—a through-Delta alternative 1980s California Department of Water Resources Various barrier and flood control programs for the Delta 1996 CALFED Bay-Delta Program (various alternatives considered) Extensive demand management New storage to improve Delta flow Dual Delta conveyanceb Through-Delta conveyance Delta channel habitat and conveyance Extensive habitat restoration with storage Eastside foothills conveyance Chain of lakes conveyance Westside conveyance and river restoration Eastside conveyance 130 Table 7.1 (continued) Year Delta Alternatives 2000 CALFED Record of Decision (current policy, with reassessment of goals and objectives in 2007) Through-Delta conveyance maintained, with levee strengthening, water use efficiency, habitat restoration, and water operations features SOURCES: Jackson and Paterson (1977); CALFED (1996, 2000b). NOTE: Elements in italics were implemented. aAnalyses in the mid-1940s included consideration of a peripheral canal. b CALFED’s dual Delta conveyance included a peripheral canal (10,000 cfs capacity) and through-Delta pumping. conducted in the mid-1990s, which broadened the scope of enquiry but looked at most alternatives in a relatively cursory manner (CALFED, 1996, 1997). Most recently, the Delta has yet again become a topic of urgent policy discussion, for numerous reasons: unease over continued ecological declines, renewed awareness of vulnerabilities to earthquakes and flooding, and increased concern for the effects of Delta water quality on urban and agricultural users, as well as urbanization pressures, sea level rise, and regional climate change. The policy response has included various agency, legislative, and private efforts to examine Delta alternatives, including a flurry of conferences, hearings, workshops, media assessments, and many fine speeches that typically focus on various “obvious” solutions to the Delta’s problems. To date, however, there has been no effort to list and systematically evaluate the range of alternative futures for the Delta. In this chapter, we review the central issues that any Delta alternative must seek to address. We then present nine alternative solution strategies for the Delta, composed of a range of elements and options that address these central issues. Our aim is not to present an exhaustive list. For a system as large and complex as the Delta, examining “all possible alternatives” would be an infinite enterprise. Instead, our goal is to highlight a broad range of potential approaches, drawing from some of the most commonly suggested proposals, some classic alternatives from the past, and some relatively new approaches. Our focus is on strategies for better adapting the Delta to California’s long-term needs and reducing 131 California’s vulnerabilities to catastrophes in the Delta rather than on crisis responses to short-term catastrophes or small reductions in risk. The Four Central Issues Solutions for the Delta typically revolve around four central issues: Delta salinity, in-Delta land and water use, water supply exports, and the ecosystem. For each issue, various options are possible, either exclusively or in combination, within different locations in the Delta or for the Delta as a whole (Table 7.2). Any management alternative for the Delta should address all four of these issues. Delta salinity has been a major concern for over 80 years, since the City of Antioch’s 1920 lawsuit against Sacramento Valley irrigators (discussed in Chapter 2). Salinity affects the potability and taste of urban water supplies, the productivity of irrigated land, and the viability of aquatic ecosystems. For many decades, the focus of policymakers concerned about salinity revolved solely around keeping the Delta fresh, and the policy employed (a hydraulic barrier of net Delta outflow at the Delta’s western edge) resulted in a sharp salinity change near Suisun Marsh. More recent thinking, reflected in Chapter 4, holds that having seasonal or even interannual variability in salinity in parts of the Delta may better mimic the Delta’s natural conditions and help limit the extent of invasive species, which tend to prefer stable salinity or relatively constant freshwater flows. Land use is another important issue in the Delta. Currently, most land in the Delta is agricultural, but there is substantial urban land and increasing economic pressure to urbanize more of the Delta, particularly near major transportation routes. Various infrastructure routes (e.g., ship channels, railroads, highways, pipelines, and power lines) traverse the Delta and must be either supported, altered, or rerouted—all at significant cost. A range of environmental uses already exist or could be created on Delta islands to support aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. The Delta also has increasing value for recreation, such as boating and fishing. Freshwater storage is another recent suggestion for Delta land use. This freshwater storage plan proposes investing in strengthening internal levees on some Delta islands subsided below sea level, allowing them to be filled with 132 Table 7.2 Delta Issues and Options Salinity Ecosystem Conditions Delta Land Uses Water Supply Exports Components Fresh Agricultural Year-round Delta Open-water habitat Brackish Urban pumping Riverine habitat Fluctuating Environmental Seasonal Delta Freshwater wetlands Recreational pumping Tidal brackish water Freshwater storage Peripheral aqueduct Seasonal floodplain Infrastructure support Through-Delta facilities Upland habitat No exports water, on a tidal or seasonal timescale, to help water projects pump fresh water from the Delta. All of these land uses have different implications for water use and the quality of water required in nearby channels, the volume and quality of drainage, and economic sustainability. Fortunately, the Delta is large and diverse enough to support a mix of land uses. Water supply exports from the Delta are a major cause of controversy. With or without exports, the Delta would have many serious problems with flooding, land subsidence, degraded habitat, invasive species, and water quality. Any solution must address water supply exports, but there are many approaches to providing or avoiding this function for the Delta. Likewise, any solution must address the Delta as a home for habitats that support a wide range of organisms, including many at-risk species. Broad habitat types important in the Delta include pelagic fish habitat, wildlife habitat, fresh open-water habitat, different forms of wetlands, and sustainable agricultural