CIM D0012804.A3/1Rev August 2005 CNA’s Russia Program, 1991-2004: A Valedictory H. H. Gaffney Dmitry Gorenburg Contents Summary.............................................................................................................1 Key Themes from Our Dialogues with the Russians..............................................................................................5 Fear of Humiliation ...................................................................................5 Perceptions of U.S.-Russian Relations ......................................................6 The Future of the Russian Navy ................................................................7 The Future of Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control................................9 Russian Military Reform ..........................................................................10 NATO Enlargement and NATO-Russian relations ................................11 Economic Issues.......................................................................................12 New Security Concerns: The Far East and Terrorism............................12 But what about Russia itself? ...................................................................13 The Seminars and Other Discussions Between the Center For Naval Analyses (CNA) and The Institute For USA and Canada Studies Of The Russian Academy Of Sciences (ISKRAN) .......................................................................................................15 The Inaugural Visit to Russia ..................................................................15 September 1992: Washington, DC..........................................................19 Russia into Yeltsin's First Term and through the Crisis of 1993............................................................................................17 October 1993: Washington and the Naval War College ........................18 February 1994: Moscow, the Bor Hotel, and St. Petersburg .........................................................................................20 June 1994: Washington, DC ....................................................................22 Late October-early November 1994: Moscow and Severomorsk ...........................................................................................23 April 1995: Washington, Newport, and Groton .....................................24 December 1995: Moscow and Kaliningrad.................................................. 27 Russia by 1996 ..................................................................................................29 September 1996: Bangor and Anchorage ..............................................30 February 1997: Moscow and Vladivostok................................................32 March 1998: Washington, DC .................................................................34 Russia's Situation in 1998-2000........................................................................35 December 1998: Moscow and Suzdal......................................................36 i June 1999: Washington, DC and Norfolk...............................................38 June 2000: Washington, DC ....................................................................39 July 2001: Moscow ....................................................................................41 Russian-American Relations After 9/11/2001 ...............................................42 December 2001: Washington, DC...........................................................43 December 2002: Washington, DC...........................................................44 October 2003: Washington, DC, Mini-Seminar......................................46 The Successes And Frustrations of Cooperation............................................47 APPENDIX A: A Dialogue on Defense Planning, Operations, and Deterrence in the New Era................................................49 APPENDIX B: Russian and American Participants in Seminars and Visits ........................................................................................55 APPENDIX C: Reports of the Seminars and Other Papers, including those written by the Russians for us................................61 APPENDIX D: A Tribute to Dr. Sergey Mikhailovich Rogov ........................65 APPENDIX E: Great Promise Unfulfilled: How Russia Lost Its Way After Independence..................................................................69 Yeltsin's First Term: The Disappointment with the Western Model .......................................................................................70 The failure of economic reform .....................................................70 Internal political conflicts and the stalemate over reform.....................................................................................72 Center-periphery conflicts and the weakening of the Russian state ........................................................................74 The decline of the Russian military ................................................74 Foreign Policy: Conflicts on the periphery, disenchantment with the West......................................................76 Yeltsin's Second Term: Muddling Through ...........................................78 Reelection campaign .......................................................................78 Yeltsin's health and the health of the Russian political system ...............................................................................80 (Temporarily) solving the Chechen War .......................................80 The economy hits bottom and begins to rebound ........................81 ii Relations with the West hit bottom ................................................82 The rise of Putin and the fall of Chechnya ....................................84 Putin's First Term: Centralization, Fighting Terrorism, and Economic Growth...........................................................................85 Establishing the vertical of power ...................................................86 Growing the economy and reaping the profits ..............................89 Joining the world alliance against terrorism ..................................90 Military reform under Putin in his second term ................................. 92 Responding to disasters and homegrown terrorists........................93 Russia's Future: Putin and Beyond..........................................................96 iii iv CNA’s Russia Program, 1991-2004: A Valedictory Henry H. Gaffney and Dmitry P. Gorenburg Summary CNA has ended its Navy-sponsored program with the Russians after 14 years. The program is not of any particular interest to the U.S. Navy anymore, especially as it is more deeply engaged on a continuing basis in the Middle East and in the Global War on Terrorism. Russia, like Europe, is a quieter place these days. Of course, the situation in the Caucasus and in Central Asia may well become even more unstable in the near future, but these regions are rather distant from naval operations at this time. Other work is being done in CNA on naval relations and operations in the Black Sea area, but that work has not involved the Russians. CNA had extensive contacts with the Russians since the end of the Cold War. Our cooperation began in 1990 with the invitation of four Russians to CNA's Conference on small wars and continued with 16 seminars, two mini-seminars, at least 13 separate speaking engagements here by Sergey Rogov, visits by other Russians, other visits by us to Russia, plus a series of visiting Russian speakers arranged by Ty Cobb with the help of Jonathan Geithner in the early 1990s. Our closest association was with the Institute for USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ISKRAN), first with its then-Deputy Director Andrey Kokoshin, and after he went to the Ministry of Defense with his successor and later Director of ISKRAN, Sergey Rogov.1 Thanks to a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, CNA also cooperated for a couple of years in the mid-1990s with a school in St. Petersburg that was training officers to go into business; CNA provided speakers with small business experience. Our main objective in this continuing program was to promote cooperation between the U.S. Navy and the Russian Federation Navy (RFN). To this end, we included senior naval officers, active and retired, in our seminars and reciprocal visits. Dr. Rogov arranged appointments with the Commander in Chief of the RFN in Moscow 1. Kokoshin was one of the four Russians invited to CNA’s Annual Conference in September 1990. He invited President of CNA Bob Murray to visit Russia in return. The visit was scheduled for Fall, 1991, when he promised to introduce us to Vice President Yanayev. The coup intervened, and we wondered what side Kokoshin would be on. It turned out that ISKRAN (then ISKAN), its Director and founder, Georgiy Arbatov, and Kokoshin were on Yeltsin’s side and were using their xerox machine to reproduce fliers in support of Yeltsin. 1 and with other senior naval and military officials, as well as members of the government and parliament, and arranged our visits to the RFN bases of the Northern, Baltic, and Pacific Fleets and their commanders. We in turn arranged their visits to U.S. Navy bases in Norfolk, Groton, and Bangor as well as to the schools in Newport and Annapolis. We also arranged appointments with senior U.S. Naval officers and government officials in Washington, including U.S. senators. Unfortunately,