SP-1324/3 premier ESA Member States Austria Belgium Czech Republic Denmark Finland → REPORT FOR MISSION SELECTION MISSION FOR → REPORT France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Portugal Romania Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom biomass coreh2o premier → REPORT FOR MISSION SELECTION An Earth Explorer to observe atmospheric composition E uropean Space Agency Agency Space uropean An ESA Communications Production Copyright © 2012 European Space Agency SP-1324/3 May 2012 biomass coreh2o premier → REPO RT FOR MISSION SELECTION An Earth Explorer to observe atmospheric composition This report is based on contributions from the following members of the PREMIER Mission Advisory Group (MAG): Brian Kerridge – MAG Chairman (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, GB) Michaela Hegglin (University of Toronto, CA) Jack McConnell (York University, Ontario, CA) Donal Murtagh (Chalmers University of Technology, SE) Johannes Orphal (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, DE) Vincent-Henri Peuch (ECMWF, GB) Martin Riese (Jülich Research Centre, DE) Michiel van Weele (Royal Dutch Meteorological Institute, NL) The scientific content of the report was compiled by Jörg Langen (Scientific Coordinator) with additional contributions, in particular, from Ugo Cortesi (CNR-IFAC, IT), Peter Preusse and Bärbel Vogel (both Jülich Research Centre, DE) and from ESA, Dirk Schüttemeyer. The technical content of the report was compiled by Bernardo Carnicero Domínguez (Technical Coordinator) with contributions from Jérôme Caron, Christophe Caspar, Antonio Gabriele, Pedro Jurado, Ville Kangas, Stefan Kraft, Chung-Chi Lin, Herbert Nett and David Patterson (all from ESA), and Anders Emrich, Urban Frisk, Fredrik von Schéele (all from Omnisys, SE), based on inputs derived from the industrial Phase-A system and technical activities, and the Swedish nationally-funded STEAMR Programme. Recommended citation: ESA (2012). Report for Mission Selection: PREMIER, ESA SP-1324/3 (3 volume series), European Space Agency, Noordwijk, The Netherlands. Cover image: ESA/AOES Medialab An ESA Communications Production Publication Report for Mission Selection: PREMIER (ESA SP-1324/3, May 2012) P roduction Editor K. Fletcher T gext Editin H. Rider Layout D. Wishart P ublisher ESA Communication Production Office ESTEC, PO Box 299, 2200 AG Noordwijk, The Netherlands Tel: +31 71 565 3408 Fax: +31 71 565 5433 www.esa.int ISBN 978-92-9221-422-7 (3 volumes) ISSN 0379-6566 C opyright © 2012 European Space Agency Contents C ontents Executive Summary . 3 1. Introduction. 9 2. Background and Scientific Justification . 13 2.1 Introduction . 13 2.2 Why is the UTLS Important for Climate?. 14 2.2.1 Key Radiative Processes . 14 2.2.2 Key Roles of Atmospheric Constituents in the UTLS . 15 2.2.3 Key Dynamic Processes . 18 2.3 Chemistry-climate Interactions . 20 2.3.1 Sensitivity of Surface Climate to UTLS Variability and General Circulation . 20 2.3.2 Trace-gas Exchange between Troposphere and Stratosphere . 23 2.3.3 Impacts of Convection, Pyroconvection and Outflow on the UTLS . 25 2.3.4 Processes Linking the UTLS to the Lower Troposphere . 27 2.4 Improving Medium-range to Seasonal Meteorological Forecasts . 29 2.5 The Unique Contribution of PREMIER . 31 3 Research Objectives . 35 4 Observational Requirements . 41 4.1 Rationale for Global Height-resolved Observations from Space in 2019–23 . 41 4.2 Geophysical Level-2 Data Requirements. 41 4.2.1 Height-domain, Coverage, Spatio-temporal Sampling and Resolution. 41 4.2.2 Driving Geophysical Level-2 Data Requirements . 42 4.2.3 Requirements for Ancillary Data . 44 4.2.4 Additional Level-2 Products . 44 4.3 Geophysical Level-2 Data Requirements for Operational Applications . 45 4.3.1 Generic Requirements Supporting GMES Atmosphere Service and NWP . 45 4.3.2 Timeliness Requirement for Operational Applications . 45 4.4 Requirement for Limb-emission Sounding and Tandem Flying with MetOp . 46 4.4.1 Introduction . 46 4.4.2 Atmospheric Limb Emission Sounding Heritage . 47 4.4.3 Combining Advanced Infrared and Millimetre-wave Limb Sounders . 48 4.4.4 Combination of PREMIER Limb-emission with MetOp/MetOp-SG Nadir Observations . 50 4.4.5 Exploitation of Data from Other Concurrent Missions. 51 4.5. Level-1b Data Requirements . 51 4.5.1 Level-1b Data Requirements for IRLS . 51 4.5.2 Level-1b Data Requirements for STEAMR . 53 5. System Concept . 59 5.1 Introduction . 59 5.2 Mission Architecture Overview . 59 5.3 Mission Analysis . 60 iii SP-1324/3: PREMIER 5.4 Space Segment. 62 5.4.1 Overview . 62 5.4.2 Satellite Configuration. 63 5.4.3 Payload . 66 5.4.4 Platform. 92 5.4.5 Budgets . 103 5.5 Launcher. 104 5.6 Ground Segment and Data Processing . 106 5.6.1 Overview . 106 5.6.2 Ground Segment Elements . 106 5.6.3 Flight Operation Segment . 109 5.6.4 Payload Data Ground Segment. 111 5.6.5 Mission Data Processing . 114 5.7 Operation and Utilisation Concept. 117 5.7.1 Overview . 117 5.7.2 LEOP and Commissioning . 117 5.7.3 Routine Operations/Calibrations . 118 5.7.4 Contingency Operations . 119 5.7.5 Disposal . 120 6 Scientific Data Processing and Validation Concept . 123 6.1 Introduction . 123 6.2 Atmospheric Composition Retrieval . 123 6.2.1 Limb-Emission Sounding. 123 6.2.2 Nadir-sounding and Limb–Nadir Synergy. 129 6.3 Data Assimilation. 130 6.4 Validation Concept . 131 6.4.1 Established Techniques for Limb-emission Sounders. 132 6.4.2 New Techniques for PREMIER . 133 7 Performance Estimation . 137 7.1 Background . 137 7.2 Level-1b Performance . 137 7.2.1 Introduction . 137 7.2.2 System Performance . 137 7.2.3 IRLS . 139 7.2.4 STEAMR. 145 7.2.5 Geo-location, LOS Stability and Inter-instrument Co-registration . 150 7.2.6 End-to-end Simulator Description and Results . 152 7.3 Individual Profile Retrievals . 155 7.3.1 Introduction . 155 7.3.2 Estimated Errors on Retrieved Profiles . 155 7.3.3 Summary of Overall Compliance with Geophysical Data Requirements . 161 7.4 Scientific Impact . 162 7.4.1 Impact of UTLS Variability and General Circulation on Surface Climate (Objective A) . 163 7.4.2 Stratosphere–Troposphere Trace-gas Exchange (Objective B) . 167 7.4.3 Impacts of Convection, Pyroconvection and Outflow on the UTLS (Objective C) . 171 7.4.4 Processes Linking the Composition of UTLS and Lower Troposphere (Objective D) . 175 iv Contents 7.5 Value-Added Operational Applications . 179 7.5.1 Introduction . 179 7.5.2 Impact of MIPAS and IASI Data on the Analysis and Forecast of Tropospheric Ozone . 179 7.5.3 Impact of PREMIER Data on Background Error Covariances . 179 7.5.4 The Impact of PREMIER in Numerical Weather Prediction . 180 7.5.5 The Impact of PREMIER in Detection of Volcanic Ash Plumes . 181 7.6 Summary. 182 8 Mission Context . 187 8.1 Introduction . 187 8.2 PREMIER Scientific User Community and its Readiness . 187 8.3 PREMIER in Global Context . 188 8.4 Application Potential of PREMIER . 190 8.4.1 Global Height-resolved Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Links with Climate . 190 8.4.2 Operational GMES Atmosphere Services . 191 8.4.3 Operational Numerical Weather Prediction . 193 9. Programmatics . 197 9.1 Introduction . 197 9.2 Scientific Maturity, Critical Areas and Risks . 197 9.3 Technical Maturity, Critical Areas and Risks . 198 9.3.1 Summary . 198 9.3.2 Satellite and Platform . 199 9.3.3 IRLS . 199 9.3.4 STEAMR. 202 9.4 Development Approach and Schedule . 205 9.4.1 Overall Design and Development Approach . 205 9.4.2 Schedule . 207 9.5 Conclusion . 207 References. 211 Acronyms . 221 Chemical Species . 224 v → EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary Executive Summary The Earth Explorer PREMIER mission will be the first satellite mission to determine 3D fields of atmospheric trace gases and temperature at a resolution high enough to study chemical, dynamic and radiative processes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the UTLS. Climate is particularly sensitive to atmospheric composition in this region because this is where much infrared radiation escapes to space, where cirrus clouds trap outgoing terrestrial radiation, and where ozone is most effective as a greenhouse gas. In synergy with nadir-viewing operational weather satellites, such as MetOp, PREMIER will also contribute to improved estimates of pyrogenic, biogenic, anthropogenic and volcanic emissions that affect global and regional air quality. State-of-the-art coupled chemistry-climate models provide the best means of predicting future changes in climate on decadal to century time scales. However, for processes occurring on spatial scales smaller than a model’s grid size, the models rely on parameterisations of the physical and chemical processes. The current understanding of the interactions between climate change and atmospheric chemistry is subject to large uncertainties, often because of a lack of knowledge about processes at high spatial resolution. PREMIER will unveil the coupled chemistry and dynamics of the UTLS and provide improved parameterisations for climate-change modelling. The mission’s four scientific objectives relate to the impacts of UTLS variability and general atmospheric circulation on Earth’s surface climate, the exchange of trace gases between the troposphere and stratosphere, convection and pyroconvection and their impact on the composition of the UTLS, and processes that link the composition of the UTLS and the lower troposphere. The Intergovernmental Panel.