One does not simply tweet without consequence: A study of the electoral contest in Ashgrove. Frances Manfield BA (Political Science and International Relations) GDipCommun (Public Relations and Professional Communication) A thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Queensland in 2014 School of Journalism and Communication Page 1 of 141 Abstract Twitter is now a fixture of society, an online meeting place for people to air their grievances about human rights and civil liberty, discuss global warming, stalk celebrities and show off their cats. An unedited forum of comments that is a gold mine of free data for those who seek to monitor opinions on everything from mobile phone providers to voting preferences. It is now unusual for modern political candidates not to sustain a social media presence during their campaign in order to connect with their constituency. This study examines Twitter use by candidates in a single electorate— the seat of Ashgrove—during an election campaign in the Australian state of Queensland in March 2012. In particular, it looks at how Twitter user groups drive concept discussions around themes and concepts within the campaign, thereby exerting influence within the domain as part of the election process. Using a theory building approach, the data set made up of 35,000 tweets was analysed using text analytics software to reveal how Twitter can be used as a feedback mechanism for candidates, how user groups drive concept discussions on Twitter, the role of legacy media within this framework, and how the language of Twitter is a unique genre of communication. Page 2 of 141 Declaration by author This thesis is composed of my original work, and contains no material previously published or written by another person except where due reference has been made in the text. I have clearly stated the contribution by others to jointly-authored works that I have included in my thesis. I have clearly stated the contribution of others to my thesis as a whole, including statistical assistance, survey design, data analysis, significant technical procedures, professional editorial advice, and any other original research work used or reported in my thesis. The content of my thesis is the result of work I have carried out since the commencement of my research higher degree candidature and does not include a substantial part of work that has been submitted to qualify for the award of any other degree or diploma in any university or other tertiary institution. I have clearly stated which parts of my thesis, if any, have been submitted to qualify for another award. I acknowledge that an electronic copy of my thesis must be lodged with the University Library and, subject to the General Award Rules of The University of Queensland, immediately made available for research and study in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968. I acknowledge that copyright of all material contained in my thesis resides with the copyright holder(s) of that material. Where appropriate I have obtained copyright permission from the copyright holder to reproduce material in this thesis. Page 3 of 141 Publications during candidature No publications Publications included in this thesis No publications included Page 4 of 141 Contributions by others to the thesis No contributions by others. Statement of parts of the thesis submitted to qualify for the award of another degree None Page 5 of 141 Acknowledgements To repeat an often overused phrase – none of this would have been possible without the support and assistance of many people. Balancing full time research with full time employment for the past three years has been a challenge like none other I have faced. First and foremost to John ‘the Great and Powerful’ Harrison, who took a small idea, and with one innocuous question ‘have you considered an MPhil?’ set me on this course. His unwavering support and wisdom is the backbone of this project – his passion and vocation for teaching is an unquestionably precious asset to this university. To Dan ‘the Boy Wizard’ Angus, computer nerd, Lego enthusiast, whiteboard artist and grower of impressive beards – who put up with my limited knowledge of data manipulation and always took the time to explain the spreadsheets ‘just one more time’. To Dave ‘the Velvet Knife’ Rooney – who cuts straight to the chase, says what needs to be said and slices to the centre of the issue with devastating ease, and at the same time being the most gentle, wise and kind man I have ever had the pleasure of working with. To my work colleagues, both past and present, for supporting my research and understanding/tolerating my own particular brand of madness. To the delightful and attractive group of people who I am lucky enough to call my friends – thank you for being an excellent distraction to studying. Last, and most importantly, to my parents David and Dianne who supported me, consoled me, advised me, laughed with me, fed me, and let me come home when it was all too much. How much I owe them is impossible to express adequately – I hope I have made them proud. In particular I would like to pay special tribute to my father David, whose perseverance Page 6 of 141 and quiet strength in the face of great personal and professional challenges provides the model upon which I strive to live and work. FM 07.05.14 Page 7 of 141 Keywords twitter, influence, political campaigns, social media, leximancer, discursis Australian and New Zealand Standard Research Classifications (ANZSRC) ANZSRC code: 200101, Communication Studies, 50% ANZSRC code: 200102, Communication Technology and Digital Media Studies, 50% Fields of Research (FoR) Classification FoR code: 2001, Communication and Media Studies, 100% Page 8 of 141 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 12 1.1 Definitions .................................................................................................................. 13 1.2 The Queensland political landscape .......................................................................... 14 1.3 Ashgrove ................................................................................................................... 17 1.4 The election result ..................................................................................................... 23 1.5 Twitter ........................................................................................................................ 25 1.6 Twitter functions ......................................................................................................... 26 1.7 Research background ................................................................................................ 27 1.8 Data ........................................................................................................................... 28 1.9 The use of Twitter in Ashgrove ................................................................................... 28 1.10 Conclusion ............................................................................................................... 31 2.0 Social media and Twitter: The Literature ................................................................... 32 2.1 Twitter and the metrics of microblogging .................................................................... 33 2.1.1 Twitter’s origins .................................................................................................... 33 2.1.2 Twitter uptake and usage ..................................................................................... 35 2.1.3 Twitter usage in Australia and internationally ....................................................... 38 2.1.4 The rise of Twitter metrics .................................................................................... 40 2.1.5 Scholarly interest in Twitter .................................................................................. 42 2.1.6 Measuring sentiment on Twitter ........................................................................... 45 2.1.7 Forthcoming research .......................................................................................... 49 2.1.8 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 50 3.0 Research design and method .................................................................................... 51 3.1 Theoretical framework ............................................................................................... 51 3.2 Data collection ........................................................................................................... 53 3.3 Data coding ............................................................................................................... 54 3.4 Text analytics ............................................................................................................. 56 3.4.1 Rationale ............................................................................................................. 56 3.4.2 Leximancer .......................................................................................................... 57 3.4.3 Discursis .............................................................................................................. 60 3.4 Limitations ................................................................................................................. 61 3.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................