SENEGAL CONFLICT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT DECEMBER 2017 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Democracy International, Inc. under Order No. AID-OAA-TO-14-00010, Contract No. AID-OAA-I-13-00044 DISCLAIMER This is an external report. The views expressed in this document are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Submitted to: USAID/DCHA/CMM Prepared by: Karen Kaplan, Team Leader Ndiaye Tabara, Local Expert Joachim Diene, Local Expert Contractor: Democracy International, Inc. 7600 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1010 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301-961-1660 www.democracyinternational.com SENEGAL CONFLICT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FINAL REPORT DECEMBER 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................................... 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................. 8 SOCIAL PATTERN AND CORE THEMES ............................................................................................ 8 MITIGATING FACTORS ........................................................................................................................... 9 Emigration and Remittances .................................................................................................................. 9 Traditional Structures That Play a Mediation Role .......................................................................... 9 Religious Leaders (Imams and Christian Clergy) .............................................................................. 9 Kinship Ties and Ethnic Intermarriage ................................................................................................ 9 Indications That the MFDC Is Moving Toward Unification ........................................................... 9 Local Conflict-Mitigation Mechanisms ............................................................................................. 10 Faith in the Electoral System .............................................................................................................. 10 TRAJECTORIES ......................................................................................................................................... 10 RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................................................................... 10 A. Recommendations for Immediate Activities ............................................................................. 11 B. Recommendations for Integration into Development Programming .................................. 11 C. Recommendations for Supporting Policy Reform ................................................................... 12 ASSESSMENT REPORT ................................................................................................. 14 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Reforms Under Current Government Administration ................................................................ 15 Economic Growth ................................................................................................................................ 15 Decentralization and Service Delivery ............................................................................................. 17 Land ......................................................................................................................................................... 18 Gender Inequality ................................................................................................................................. 19 Disaffected Youth ................................................................................................................................. 20 Vulnerable Children ............................................................................................................................. 20 Casamance Conflict.............................................................................................................................. 21 Regional Context .................................................................................................................................. 22 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................................................... 25 BOTTOM LINE ............................................................................................................................................... 27 CROSS-CUTTING SOCIAL PATTERN ............................................................................................................ 28 CORE THEMES .............................................................................................................................................. 30 Limited Livelihood Opportunities (across regions) ...................................................................... 30 Lack of Transparency and Politicization of Land Allocation (across regions) ......................... 32 - SENEGAL CONFLICT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPORT - 1 Limited Capacity of Local Communes to Implement Decentralization and Deliver Services (across regions) ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Lack of Transparency in Local Commune Resource Allocation (across regions) ................. 35 Political, Economic and Social Exclusion of Youth (across regions) ......................................... 36 Security Force Intimidation of Youth (Kolda and Kedougou) .................................................... 37 Neither Peace nor War (Casamance – Kolda, Sedhiou, and Ziguinchor) ............................... 38 Ethnic Tensions (Border Areas between Senegal and The Gambia) ........................................ 39 MITIGATING FACTORS ................................................................................................................................. 40 Emigration and Remittances ............................................................................................................... 40 Traditional Structures .......................................................................................................................... 40 Religious Leaders (Imams and Christian Clergy) ........................................................................... 41 Kinship Ties and Ethnic Intermarriage ............................................................................................. 41 Indications That the MFDC Is Moving Toward Unification ........................................................ 42 Local Conflict Mitigation Mechanisms .............................................................................................. 42 Faith in the Electoral System .............................................................................................................. 43 TRAJECTORIES ............................................................................................................................................... 43 Immediate Concern ............................................................................................................................. 43 Concern .................................................................................................................................................. 46 Latent....................................................................................................................................................... 48 Mitigating ................................................................................................................................................ 48 RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................................................................................................... 49 Recommendations for Immediate Activities................................................................................... 50 Recommendations for Integration into Development Programming ....................................... 52 Recommendations for Supporting Policy Reform ......................................................................... 58 ANNEX A: REGIONAL SNAPSHOTS ........................................................................... 1 KÉDOUGOU ...................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................................. 1 CORE THEMES ................................................................................................................................................. 1 Limited Livelihood Opportunities ........................................................................................................ 1 Lack of Transparency and Politicization of Land Allocation .......................................................... 1 Lack of Transparency in Local Commune Resource Allocation ................................................... 1 Political, Economic, and Social Exclusion of Youth .........................................................................