THE GREAT RECOVERY The Centre for Social Justice A post Covid-19 deal for Britain November 2020 The Great Recovery A post Covid-19 deal for Britain © The Centre for Social Justice, 2020 Published by the Centre for Social Justice, Kings Buildings, 16 Smith Square, Westminster, SW1P 3HQ www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk @CSJthinktank designbysoapbox.com contents Contents About the Centre for Social Justice 2 The Great Recovery overview 3 Executive summary 6 PART ONE The economic deal: work 8 Introduction 9 1 Anatomy of a crisis 10 2 Getting Britain back to work: jobs, jobs, jobs 17 3 Levelling up Britain 29 PART TWO The social deal: support for the vulnerable 46 Policy 1 Put families at the heart of our vision for the recovery 47 policy 2 Rebuild our society around strong local communities 56 Policy 3 Kick-start the recovery by rebooting adult training 66 Policy 4 End homelessness and rough sleeping once and for all 75 Policy 5 Solve the problem of problem debt 85 Policy 6 Set up a national network of Family Hubs 93 Policy 7 Support our most vulnerable children through education 101 Policy 8 Accelerate a highly effective addiction recovery strategy 110 Policy 9 Reform our failing, overlooked prison system 117 Policy 10 Fight the scourge of modern slavery head on 124 PART THREE The political deal: a new kind of relationship 131 1 What we learnt in 2020 132 2 A new political settlement is needed 137 3 The New Britain Deal 146 The Great Recovery | Contents 1 About the Centre for Social Justice Established in 2004, the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) is an independent think-tank that studies the root causes of Britain’s social problems and addresses them by recommending practical, workable policy interventions. The CSJ’s vision is to give people in the UK who are experiencing the worst multiple disadvantages and injustice every possible opportunity to reach their full potential. The majority of the CSJ’s work is organised around five ’pathways to poverty’, first identified in our ground-breaking 2007 report Breakthrough Britain. These are: educational failure; family breakdown; economic dependency and worklessness; addiction to drugs and alcohol; and severe personal debt. Since its inception, the CSJ has changed the landscape of our political discourse by putting social justice at the heart of British politics. This has led to a transformation in government thinking and policy. For instance, in March 2013, the CSJ report It Happens Here shone a light on the horrific reality of human trafficking and modern slavery in the UK. As a direct result of this report, the Government passed the Modern Slavery Act 2015, one of the first pieces of legislation in the world to address slavery and trafficking in the 21st century. Our research is informed by experts, including prominent academics, practitioners and policymakers. The CSJ is rooted in our alliance with small charities that have a proven track record of reversing social breakdown across the UK. The social challenges facing Britain remain serious. In 2020 and beyond, we will continue to advance the cause of social justice so that more people can continue to fulfil their potential. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations in this report are those of the CSJ and do not necessarily represent those of the individuals or organisations listed above. 2 The Centre for Social Justice overview The Great Recovery overview Since our inception, the Centre for Social Justice has worked with individuals in crisis to understand their needs and how government and others can help and enable. The arrival of Covid-19 is a very different kind of crisis to any in our lifetime: global, indiscriminate and fatal. But the needs of individuals emerging from this time remain the same as in other times of crisis. Whether struggling with a disability, overcoming an addiction, or the breakdown of a marriage, there are certain things that all people need to make the most of their potential. This paper is structured in three parts to reflect that reality and to recognise that the recovery from this crisis must be based on those pillars that underpin all great recoveries. Part one The economic deal: work Getting Britain working again must be the first and most crucial priority for government. The economic damage caused by the pandemic and subsequent shut down was significant. As of 14 June, 1.1 million businesses had furloughed 9.1 million workers, at a cost of £20.8 billion. A survey by Resolution Foundation found approximately 15 per cent of furloughed staff expected to lose their jobs, and 20 per cent expected to have their hours reduced. ONS statistics released the same week showed payroll numbers had dropped by 600,000, eroding two and a half years of employment growth in the space of three months. GDP fell by 20 per cent in the month of April alone. Unsurprisingly, it is low income and low skilled households that are most vulnerable to losing work and an income. Work is one of the best ways to help people out of poverty; someone out of work is four-times more likely to be in poverty than someone with an income and a job. But it is about more than statistics and income alone. Work gives dignity and identity. It is a reason to get up each morning. The Royal College of Psychiatrists is unequivocal about the importance of employment for people with mental health problems, they say it is: The Great Recovery | Overview 3 ‘central to personal identity; provides structure and purpose to the day; gives opportunities for socialisation and friendship; and increases social networks – a core component of social capital’. Public Health England links unemployment with increased risk of mortality and morbidity. They say it can increase the risk of ‘long term diseases, cardiovascular disease, poor mental health, suicide, and health-harming behaviours’. One of the major successes of the policy response to the last UK recession in 2008 was the ability to limit the impact of unemployment. This must be the first priority of our response to this current crisis. Part two The social deal: support for the vulnerable But it is not enough to merely provide jobs. The people to take them must be work-ready. That means a government providing the right support at the right time from cradle to grave. Part Two of this report cannot be an exhaustive list of government action, but it does prioritise the ten most crucial areas to focus on if the poorest in society are not to be left behind in the recovery. The crisis has left many people with no work, but also thrown up new industries and new ways of working. Ensuring that adult learning providers are ready for those with retraining needs is paramount. Sadly, the last few months have highlighted that there are more basic needs than that for many people. With a third of people recovering from addictions reporting relapses during the lockdown, do we have the services in place to aid their recoveries? Almost 15,000 people were moved into emergency accommodation at the start of the lockdown, no doubt saving many lives, but do we have the will and housing capacity to make this good news story last? And the poor condition of the decrepit prison estate was once again forced into view as prisoners needlessly lost lives in inhuman conditions due to an unimaginative sentencing system. However, any social deal must start long before any individual ends up in prison, in addiction recovery, or on the streets. A focus on early intervention is key. The establishing of a network of family hubs, is part of that, as is community empowerment to make the right decision for children in their area. It starts on day one, in the home, by supporting families to care for each other. 4 The Centre for Social Justice overview Part three The political deal: a new kind of relationship And it is the last of these that has perhaps been the most striking differential during this pandemic. The key lockdown lesson is not about public services. We have a National Health Service, a universal police force and 93 per cent of all children go to the same state-run schools. The differential in the equation that will leave some children scarred for life by this lockdown while others will emerge completely unscathed, is the quality of relationships in our homes and communities. These must be put at the heart of policymaking if government is to become truly outcome-focussed. That means a new relationship between people and government. It means the answer to our problems will not be an ever-increasing roller-coaster of tax and spend. Nor must we borrow to the eye-balls and hope against recent history that the miracle of growth happens and future generations are not sunk by it. It means that, yes, the government can, should, and will look after you in times of need. But if we are to truly thrive as a nation, the pandemic has shown that we must unburden government and take on more responsibility to care for each other: to get involved in our local communities, volunteer, check on our neighbours, look after our own health, and build families. Where central command and control has been found wanting in recent months, community groups have delivered food parcels, cared for the sick and dying, and offered contact to the lonely. Parents have educated their children, calmed their concerns, and nurtured their growth. No amount of government money can do that. And so Part Three looks at what a new settlement might look like, where human flourishing is central, and our relationships with each other, rather than government, take the front seat.